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91.
We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong
wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze
intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management
policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial
private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences.
The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management
in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference
in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest. 相似文献
92.
In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO2 emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of
CO2 concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed
with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective.
It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from
moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved
at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis
shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect. 相似文献
93.
The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO2 climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results 相似文献
94.
Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily
dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the
oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the
model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A
s), maximum depth (H
max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z
s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms
of a stratification parameterA
s/H
max
0.25
and Secchi depthZ
s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest
are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as
follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios
are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and
time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted
(monthly) by the 2 × CO2 GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO2. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above
7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter.
Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound
effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management
options. 相似文献
95.
广深准高速铁路安全管理模式探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
葛闻安 《中国安全科学学报》1995,5(4):7-9
广深准高速铁路的开通运营,以及广深铁路公司股份制改造,从客观上要求改革与优化铁路安全管理体制,建工新的铁路安全管理模式。本文构造了广深铁路安全管理模式,满足国家确定的“企业负责,行业管理,国家监察,群众监督”的安全工作体制要求,引入风险管理,实行事故保险,提出应该以安全文化作为新模式的软件,优化新的安全管理体制。 相似文献
96.
本文分析了江苏省近几十年来、特别是80年代以来冬季气温的变化特征,根据农业灾害发生的条件,讨论了“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响,为农业生产部门和防灾抗灾部门决策提供科学依据. 相似文献
97.
Kennett SA 《Environmental management》2002,30(5):0595-0608
Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass
as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues,
particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international
consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention.
National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and
agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic
from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts,
account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues
relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should
be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management.
Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing
these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass
production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. 相似文献
98.
Advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand: Policy intervention and institutional settings
This article reviews and analyses the advancement of renewable sources of energy in Bangladesh and Thailand in terms of policy intervention and institutional settings. Since renewable forms of energy emit far smaller amounts of greenhouse gas compared with fossil fuels, their use should mitigate climate change impacts while contributing to the provision of energy services. The article turns first to a review of energy–environment trends and the potential for renewables in these two nations. It then discusses strategies for the advancement of renewables. It is argued that further significant efforts can be made towards the advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand. These two nations could also learn from the experience in industrialized nations and other developing nations with regard to requisite policy instruments and processes. A number of barriers remain to the advancement of renewables, especially in terms of policy arrangements, institutional settings, financing mechanisms and technologies. Resources, cooperation and learning are required in order to overcome such barriers and to foster the development of necessary policy measures. Implementation of the clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and replication and adaptation of effective strategies from other settings are possible avenues for this. 相似文献
99.
Barry J. Barnett 《Disasters》1999,23(2):139-155
Governments often provide grants or low-interest loans to disaster victims. Yet these programmes have proven to be quite costly. In addition, questions have been raised about associated behavioural incentives. Conceptually, government disaster insurance programmes should be more efficient, consistent and equitable than ex post facto disaster relief in the form of grants and loans. Yet the performance of government disaster insurance programmes has been mixed, at best. This article reviews the history of US federal natural disaster assistance to individuals and concludes with a recommendation for a new government role in the provision of disaster insurance. 相似文献
100.
The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts.
Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow
stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario
of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth.
The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve
as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but
the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation
costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain.
Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999 相似文献