Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

SOUND POLICY OR SMOKE AND MIRRORS: DOES ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT MAKE SENSE?1

ABSTRACT: Protection of ecosystems as entities on the landscape has attracted a wide range of support. Ecosystem-based public policies are claimed to be more effective, efficient, and scientifically sound than other approaches to environmental and natural resource policy. The ecosystem concept was never intended to serve as a public policy guide or to determine landscape units for land management purposes. This paper critically examines the use of the ecosystem concept in public policy and land use management and analyzes the proposed rule to manage the National Forest System according to ecosystem management principles. The concept is found to be unsuitable as a basis for guiding environmental and natural resource public policies in general while the proposed rule to manage the national forests according to ecosystem management principles is shown to be incoherent.     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论

通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析，结合１４Ｃ、古地磁等，对北京房山东甘池１５０００ａ以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究，特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在１４１００～１４０００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件，在１００００ａＢ．Ｐ．左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件，在大约５７７０ａＢ．Ｐ．和４５６０ａＢ．Ｐ．左右及２８５０～２６５０ａＢ．Ｐ．出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。     

城市可持续发展政策的取向与反思

本文对城市可持续发展进行了概述，从物理环境、经济环境和社会环境的相互作用的角度分析了城市可持续发展的政策取向，对当今的可持续发展的政策进行反思，提出了建立环境公平促进可持续发展的政策思路。     

政策干预对提高煤矿职工素质影响探讨

煤矿井下作业人员素质低,是煤矿事故多发的重要原因之一.建议从大幅度提高煤矿井下人员工资待遇,吸引高素质人才从事煤矿工作;全方位开展煤矿职业培训工作,坚持先培训后就业,实行煤矿从业准入制;对现在岗的煤矿从业人员分期分批进行培训,实现煤矿从业人员持证上岗;政府出台政策,强制煤矿企业开展职工岗位技术培训和安全培训等4个方面着手,切实提高煤矿从业人员的整体素质,减少煤矿事故的发生.     

关于区域环境保护政策的思考

本文从通过分析我国环境保护政策存在的缺口和目前对这种理念的研究进展,并根据环境问题本身的特性以及环境问题产生的背景差异提出重新确立环境保护政策的调控范围的观点,并提出了这种观点对于对我国环境保护政策以及环境保护工作的重要意义。     

Transforming open mining pits into fish farms: Moving towards sustainability

The legacy of mining activities has typically been land ‘returned to wildlife’, or, at some sites, degraded to such an extent that it is unsuitable for any alternate use. Progress towards sustainability is made when value is added in terms of the ecological, social and economic well‐being of the community. In keeping with the principles of sustainable development, the innovative use of flooded open pits and tailings impoundments as commercial, recreational or ornamental fish farms should be considered in some locations, as it could make a significant contribution to the social equity, economic vitality and environmental integrity of mining communities. This article highlights the growing significance of aquaculture and explores the benefits and barriers to transforming flooded pits and impoundments into aquaculture operations. Among other benefits, aquaculture may provide a much‐needed source of revenue, employment and, in some cases, food to communities impacted by mine closure. Further, aquaculture in a controlled closed environment may be more acceptable to critics of fish farming who are concerned about fish escapes and viral transmissions to wild populations. Despite the potential benefits, aquaculture in flooded pits and impoundments is not without its complications — it requires a site‐specific design approach that must consider issues ranging from metals uptake by fish, to the long‐term viability of the aquatic system as fish habitat, to the overall contribution of aquaculture to sustainability.