全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3461篇 |
免费 | 206篇 |
国内免费 | 248篇 |
专业分类
安全科学 | 79篇 |
废物处理 | 16篇 |
环保管理 | 832篇 |
综合类 | 1226篇 |
基础理论 | 644篇 |
环境理论 | 51篇 |
污染及防治 | 180篇 |
评价与监测 | 198篇 |
社会与环境 | 522篇 |
灾害及防治 | 167篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 12篇 |
2023年 | 82篇 |
2022年 | 89篇 |
2021年 | 112篇 |
2020年 | 101篇 |
2019年 | 157篇 |
2018年 | 151篇 |
2017年 | 189篇 |
2016年 | 216篇 |
2015年 | 192篇 |
2014年 | 133篇 |
2013年 | 287篇 |
2012年 | 211篇 |
2011年 | 257篇 |
2010年 | 176篇 |
2009年 | 200篇 |
2008年 | 162篇 |
2007年 | 201篇 |
2006年 | 153篇 |
2005年 | 115篇 |
2004年 | 101篇 |
2003年 | 98篇 |
2002年 | 81篇 |
2001年 | 68篇 |
2000年 | 87篇 |
1999年 | 76篇 |
1998年 | 34篇 |
1997年 | 42篇 |
1996年 | 19篇 |
1995年 | 18篇 |
1994年 | 14篇 |
1993年 | 29篇 |
1992年 | 11篇 |
1991年 | 8篇 |
1990年 | 11篇 |
1989年 | 3篇 |
1988年 | 2篇 |
1987年 | 3篇 |
1985年 | 5篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
1983年 | 1篇 |
1982年 | 1篇 |
1981年 | 1篇 |
1980年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 2篇 |
1971年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有3915条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
91.
上海中心城区土地利用变化对区域降雨径流的影响研究 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7
土地利用变化导致的城市下垫面改变对降雨径流关系有着重要影响。选择高度城市化的上海中心城区,利用初损和径流量修正方法并经实测数据验证后的SCS-CN修正模型,在城市集水区尺度上,初步探讨模拟了1947—2006年中心城区在0.5~10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下持续1 h的降雨事件和丰、平、枯降雨年份下的径流系数,并分析了土地利用方式、前期土壤湿润程度(AMC)和降雨因素对中心城区60 a降雨径流关系的影响。结果表明:①60 a间,AMCⅠ和0.5~10 a一遇设计暴雨重现期条件下的径流系数相对增长17.21%~6.14%,枯、平和丰水年的年径流系数相对增长分别为20.49%、11.83%和10.02%;②土地利用类型、土壤入渗能力和AMC类型,与降雨强度共同构成影响降雨径流关系的两方面重要因素。随着降雨强度的增大,在AMCⅠ→Ⅲ过程中,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系的影响趋小,降雨类型起决定作用;而降雨强度越小,土壤AMC越干燥,土地利用改变对降雨径流关系影响越强;③不同降雨强度和降水年条件下的径流系数均随CN值的增大而增加,其径流系数与CN值之间分别可用线性(R20.999)和指数(R20.987)关系表示。 相似文献
92.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
93.
Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
Indur M. Goklany 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):755-786
Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources,
social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves
indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices).
Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria,
water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these
commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation,
mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing
and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human
and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive
risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development
would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change
and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of
pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously
reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper
fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems,
and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.
相似文献
Indur M. GoklanyEmail: |
94.
Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a sensitive indicator to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to the climate change. Projections of the NPP changes of the Loess Plateau under future climate scenarios have great significances in revealing the interactions among terrestrial ecosystems and climatic systems, as well as instructing future vegetation construction of this region. Here, we carried out a case study on the Yangou watershed in the Loess Plateau. Using the vegetation-producing process model (VPP) established for such small watersheds, we simulated the NPP of the Yangou watershed under different scenarios of climate changes. The results showed that the NPP significantly increased with the precipitation increasing and evidently decreased with the temperature increasing where the climate change occurred in the whole year or in the summer half year. However, where the climate change occurred in the winter half year, the increased precipitation had little effect on the NPP, and the increased temperature significantly reduced the NPP. There were clear differences among the response sensitivities of different vegetation types with trees and shrubs were more sensitive to the changes in temperature and precipitation than crops and grasses. Currently, the most favourable climate change scenario to the NPP in the Yangou watershed was T0P15 under which the precipitation increased by 15% and the temperature did not changed, in the whole year; in the meantime, the most unfavourable climate change scenarios was T2P-15 under which the precipitation declined by 15% and the temperature increased by 2℃, in the whole year. 相似文献
95.
滨海湿地是全球环境变化最为敏感的地区之一,了解其海堤演化和土地利用变化可为湿地资源的可持续利用和管理提供依据。利用1983年的1∶5万土地利用图和2001年的ETM遥感影像为基础数据源,分析了1983年和2001年该区海堤的演化和土地利用的变化情况。研究结果表明,1983年和2001年海岸带从南到北呈现由淤涨型向侵蚀型过渡的变化特征,海堤长度呈缩短状态;土地利用类型以光滩、耕地及盐田为主,变化趋势是盐田、芦苇地和耕地逐渐在增加,盐蒿滩、园林地逐渐在减少。通过分析,表明人类活动对滨海湿地土地利用格局的影响明显。 相似文献
96.
97.
20世纪被认为可能是近千年中气候最暖的时期,但由于20世纪前50余年西北干旱区没有或少有实测气候资料,因此该区域20世纪气候变化评估存在很大的不确定性。重建这一时期气候资料有助于提高20世纪干旱区气候变化评估可靠性。论文应用Delta方法和典型相关分析(CCA)方法,结合1961-1990年开都河流域以及中亚3个气象站点1901-1990年逐月气温和降水资料重建开都河流域1901-1960年气候资料,并分析比较两种方法的精度和适用性。研究结果表明:Delta方法重建的各气象站逐月气温整体上优于CCA方法;CCA方法重建的降水整体上优于Delta方法。Delta方法重建的1901-1960年逐月气温序列不同年份之间变化幅度大,CCA方法重建的气温序列相对比较平缓。两种方法重建的降水序列中均表现出各个年份年内分布差异大的特征。 相似文献
98.
99.
Kurz Werner A. Beukema Sarah J. Apps Michael J. 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》1997,2(4):405-421
Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the
area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new
disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on
landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these
impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of
conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model
was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which
harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content
under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is
often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the
C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior
to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency,
the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results
indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release
due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content
between the natural and the managed disturbance regime. 相似文献
100.
土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述 总被引:112,自引:6,他引:112
本文综述了全球变化研究中土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LUCC)的主要模型,重点介绍了植被模型和引入社会驱动力的LUCC模型,并归纳出LUCC模型的以下发展趋势:①新一代的LUCC模型应该能够模拟LUCC的主要社会经济和自然驱动力,包括从LUCC到驱动力和全球变化的主要反馈关系;②具有明确的空间关系,能够以适当的空间分辨率,比较好地预测长期的(50~100a)土地利用和覆盖变化及有关的生物物理参数,如植被特征、资源的积聚和退化等;③能够更好地认识LUCC与其主要驱动力之间的关系在局地、区域和全球尺度上的动态和后果;充分考虑土地利用和覆盖变化对政策、技术进步、人口增长、经济发展、市场变化等社会变量的灵敏性,此外,还应注意意识、信仰等文化因素的影响;④发展新的LUCC建模方法,使LUCC模型能够与其它类型的全球变化模型,特别是气候模型建立联系。 相似文献