中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

Evidence of new particle formation during post monsoon season over a high-altitude site of the Western Ghats,India

The formation of ultrafine particles, their growth, and associated characteristic features has been studied during new particle formation events over a high-altitude station of the Western Ghats during the 2014 post-monsoon season. Most of the events were observed during noon time where particle bursts in the nucleation-mode size range from 5 to 25 nm followed by sustained growth in size. This phenomenon persists for ～4–8 h with a growth rate of 1–2 nm h^–1. Peak concentrations of nucleation-mode particles during the event generally vary from 2300 to 5000 cm^–3. The mean growth rate is 1.4 ± 0.42 nm h^–1, particle formation rate is 1.14 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, coagulation sink is 0.35 ± 0.22 cm^–3 s^–1, and condensational sink is 15.4 ± 2.6?×?10^–3 s^–1. All these values are comparable with earlier results from Indian region. Comparison of size-segregated particle number concentration during days of new particle formation events and those without new particle formation were carried out showing a distinct variation in nucleation and Aitken mode with least variability associated with the accumulation mode.     

The channels of the effect of government expenditure on the environment: evidence using dynamic panel data

This paper explores the relationship between government spending and environmental quality using panel data for 94 countries for the period 1970–2008. We identify and estimate three distinct channels that comprise the total direct effect of government expenditure on air pollution, namely a marginal effect, an effect conditional on economic growth and an effect conditional on institutional quality. Since adjustment rate of emissions to their equilibrium level is slow due to technological and institutional reasons, we explicitly take into account dynamics by applying appropriate econometric methods. The results demonstrate that there is a significant alleviating direct effect of government expenditure on SO₂ and NO_x emissions, which increases with the level of economic growth and democracy. However, there is no evidence of a significant effect on pollutants with more global impact on the environment and human health, like N₂O and CO₂, implying that the adoption of international environmental treaties is required in this case.     

Nickel induced alteration of hen body weight,egg production and egg quality after an experimental peroral administration

In this study the effects of nickel (NiCl₂) administered in drinking water (0.02; 0.2 and 2.0 mg NiCl₂/L for 28 days) on laying hen body weight, egg production and egg quality is reported. Growth parameters during the experiment were significantly decreased mainly in the group with the highest nickel concentration. In total egg production dose–dependent decrease in all experimental groups was found. Egg weight was mainly affected in the group with the highest nickel concentration. Specific egg weight was not altered. Albumen weight and albumen content was significantly decreased in groups with the highest nickel concentration in comparison with the control group.

Egg yolk analysis detected significantly decreased yolk weight in the group with the highest nickel experimental level. In yolk color a significant difference was detected between the group receiving 0.02 and 0.2 mg NiCl₂/mL. Eggshell compactness was increased in all experimental groups what could be induced by altered mineralization of eggshell. Results of this study clearly report a negative effect of nickel as an environmental pollutant on laying hen body weight, egg production as well as egg quality.     

Biomass and nutrient concentration of sweet corn roots and shoots under organic amendments application

Two field experiments were conducted at the Waimanalo research station on the island of O'ahu, Hawaii to study the effect of chicken (CM) and dairy (DM) manures on biomass and nutrient concentration in sweet corn roots and shoots. Sweet corn (super sweet 10, Zea Mays L. subsp. mays) was grown for two consecutive growing seasons under four rates of application (0, 168, 337, and 672 kg ha^{? 1} total N equivalent) and one time (OTA) or two time (TTA) applications of organic manure types and rates. There were significant effects of types, rates, and number of manure applications on dry biomass and macro- and micro-nutrient concentration in roots and shoots tissues. Results of root tissue indicated a significant accumulation of N and C under CM and DM treatments compared with the control treatment. Manure application rates significantly increased the accumulation of N and C in root tissue. Dry weight of roots and shoots and both macro- and micro-nutrient contents in the plant tissues significantly increased under TTA treatment compared with OTA treatment. There was a significant correlation (r² = 0.46 to 0.81) between root biomass, macro-, and micro-nutrient contents during both growing seasons. The results of the study indicates that amending soils with CM at the highest application rate provided the best crop performance in terms of root and shoot biomass, crop N, C, and other macro- and micro-nutrients.     

The effects of residual tetracycline on soil enzymatic activities and plant growth

A pot trial was carried out to investigate the adverse effects of tetracycline (TC) on soil microbial communities, microbial activities, and the growth of ryegrass (Lolium perenne L). The results showed that the presence of TC significantly disturbed the structure of microbial communities and inhibited soil microbial activities in terms of urease, acid phosphatase and dehydrogenase (p < 0.05). Plant biomass was adversely influenced by TC, especially the roots with a reduction of 40% when compared with the control. Furthermore, TC decreased the assimilation of phosphorus by the plant although the concentration of phosphorus was increased by 20% due to decreased plant biomass. TC seemed to increase the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (by 20%) in soil. The findings implied that the agricultural use of animal manure or fishpond sediment containing considerable amounts of antibiotics may give rise to ecological risks.     

基于应力分析的机载电子设备可靠性加速增长试验技术研究

本文论述了基于应力分析的机载电子设备可靠性加速增长试验流程和方法,以某机载惯导产品为例说明了加速系数计算方法。这一方法对于其他机载电子产品的可靠性评估工作有一定的指导意义。     

Phytotoxic activity of crop residues from Burdock and an active substance

Abstract

Problems related to weed management such as outbreaks of herbicide-resistant weeds have recently increased. An interesting approach to such problems is to use plant materials with phytotoxic activity. Burdock (Arctium lappa L.) is a biennial herb belonging to Asteraceae and is cultivated in several countries. The present study investigated the phytotoxic activity of burdock and its active substances. Extracts of both burdock leaves and roots inhibited the shoot and root growth of cress and barnyard grass, where the level of inhibition increased with increasing extract concentration. The leaf extracts had 2.0–2.5 times higher activity than the root extracts. Bioassay-guided separations of the leaf extracts led to isolation of a phytotoxic substance, onopordopicrin. Onopordopicrin significantly inhibited the shoot and root growth of cress and barnyard grass. The concentrations of the substance required for 50% growth inhibition were 0.27 and 0.26?mM for cress shoots and roots, respectively, and 1.86 and 0.35?mM for barnyard grass shoots and roots, respectively. The present results suggest that burdock leaves have high phytotoxic activity and onopordopicrin may play a major role in the activity. Burdock leaves may be a good resource for weed management.     

Effects of economic growth on biodiversity in the United States

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth.     

甘肃省第三产业对经济增长贡献的实证研究

第三产业的加快发展是生产力提高和社会进步的必然结果。大力发展第三产业有利于提高工农业生产的社会化和专业化水平,有利于优化生产结构,促进市场充分发育,缓解就业压力,从而促进整个经济持续、快速和健康发展。利用1991-2009年数据,以向量自回归模型为基础,采用单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等方法对甘肃省第三产业与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,1991-2009年甘肃省第三产业总值对GDP的长期弹性为0．35035,第三产业对经济增长具有积极的促进作用。