连续型空间故障树中因素重要度分布的定义与认知

为了解工作环境条件因素对系统故障概率的影响的特征,同时丰富连续型空间故障树(CSFT)的理论框架,提出因素重要度分布的概念。因素重要度分布从经典故障树的概率重要度发展而来,目的是研究系统所处环境因素变化导致系统可靠性变化的程度。给出元件和系统的因素重要度分布概念、公式及所需基础数据,并分析因素重要度分布的正负分布特点。使用该概念研究元件X1和系统T的因素t重要度分布和因素c重要度分布。结果表明:在不同环境中,对于因素t或c变化影响元件或系统的故障概率变化程度是不同的。因素重要度分布有效地表达了t和c对元件或系统的故障概率影响特征。     

基于灰色理论的废弃电路板金属回收模型研究

电子废弃物的资源化既能实现资源的二次利用,又能防止环境污染,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.运用灰色理论对离心复合力场回收废弃电路板金属过程中反冲水、转速和浓度等操作参数对分选效果(精矿品位和精矿的回收率)的影响进行了研究,建立了基于GM(0,N)灰色模型的离心复合力场回收废弃电路板分选模型.经验证模型精度较高.     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

A bayesian network-based safety assessment method for solid propellant granule-casting molding process

The safety of the solid propellant molding process is vital for the stable production of high-quality propellants. Failure events caused by abnormal parameters in the molding process may have catastrophic consequences. In this paper, a Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed to assess the safety of the solid propellant granule-casting molding process. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is developed to construct a causal link between process variables and process failures. Subsequently, expert experience and fuzzy set theory (FST) are used to obtain failure probabilities of the basic events (BEs). Based on the mapping rules, FTA provides BN with reliable prior knowledge and a network structure with interpretability. Finally, when new evidence is obtained, the probability is updated with the diagnostic reasoning capability of BN. The results of the sensitivity analysis and diagnostic inference were combined to identify key parameters in the granule-casting molding process, including curing temperature, vacuum degree, extrusion, calendering roll distance, length setting value, holding time, and polish time. The results of this paper can provide effective supporting information for managers to conduct process safety analysis.     

Formation of Two Xylem Frost Injuries in One Annual Ring in Siberian Spruce under Conditions of Western Siberian Forest-Tundra

The phenomenon of the formation of two damaged xylem layers in one frost ring is described in Siberian spruce grown in western Siberian forest-tundra. Temperature conditions providing for the formation of pathological cell and tissue structures are determined. The relationship between the formation of double frost injuries and cold periods is demonstrated.     

秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物滞尘效应研究

通过对秦皇岛市4种常见绿化植物的叶片滞尘量、单株滞尘能力及相关因素的研究,发现绿化植物单位叶面积的滞尘量最大可以相差2.5倍左右,树种叶片滞尘能力的大小排序为：国槐＞悬铃木＞金银木＞连翘,单株滞尘能力的大小排序为：悬铃木＞国槐＞金银木＞连翘;绿化植物的滞尘量与环境中粉尘含量成正比,树木滞尘能力还与叶片表面性状、叶面积指数及植物所处环境等因素有关。     

Organic farmers in islands: Agricultural management and attitude towards the environment

SUMMARY

This study explores differences among organic farmers who live in islands and have isolated small-size operations. The relationships between farmers' characteristics and attitudes and farm management were interpreted by studying how they manage their land, their attitudes towards the environment and alternative farming systems, and their involvement in organic farming. The research was carried out using questionnaires addressed to organic farmers on the island of Thassos. Nonlinear canonical correlation was applied for data analysis. This information could contribute to adjustment of policy decisions for on-farm diversification. Agricultural policy makers should approach organic farmers in northern Thassos (productive irrigated olive orchards with gentle slopes) by enacting standards to reduce the cost of alternative plant protection methods and promoting their products in order to maintain and expand organic farming. They should also approach organic farmers in southern Thassos (less productive, dry cultivated olive orchards with steep slopes, overgrazed and often abandoned) by providing them with the necessary information and appropriate agricultural know-how to effectively manage their farms. Organic farmers with stable off-farm income are more aware of environmental values and consider that they risk less than others in order to gain the benefits of alternative farming systems. However, they should attend training programmes to achieve economic success to allow them to continue farming organically.     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

Multiple mate choice criteria and the importance of age for male mating success in the microhylid frog, Cophixalus ornatus

We examined multiple mate choice criteria in Cophixalus ornatus, a terrestrial breeding, microhylid frog. Mate choice consisted of three stages: mate attraction (male calling), courtship (male behavior between the call site and the nest), and nest site selection by the female. For male C. ornatus, the possession of a call with low dominant frequency relative to calling neighbors increased the probability that they would attract females. Dominant frequency was negatively correlated with age independent of male mass and snout vent length. When escorting the female from the call site to their nest, males traveled along more convoluted paths than when returning to the nest alone. The convolution of the path was, therefore, considered an aspect of courtship. Females released eggs into nests with structural characteristics typical of nests constructed by older males. Thus, females increased their chances of locating an acceptable nest by preferentially approaching males with lower dominant frequencies. This study is the first to demonstrate that age, independent of mass or snout-vent length, can influence call characteristics in anurans, and it is also the first to demonstrate the importance of male age to female mate choice in an amphibian.     

Demographic Consequences of Terrestrial Habitat Loss for Pool‐Breeding Amphibians: Predicting Extinction Risks Associated with Inadequate Size of Buffer Zones

Abstract: Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land‐use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well‐informed land‐use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high‐quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state‐level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool‐breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life‐history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer‐lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.