系统动力学复杂性及其在海洋生态学中的研究进展

海洋生态系统具有开放性、耗散性和非线性等特点,可以借助于系统动力学方法对其研究.系统动力学研究一个不可回避的问题就是系统动力学复杂性.本文在简单介绍几种常见的系统动力学模型及其复杂性问题的基础上,系统阐述了当前系统动力学复杂性在海洋生物多样性的维持、海洋生态系统的物质循环、海洋生物群落结构稳定性、有害藻类的暴发、海洋污染物的扩散、海洋生态毒理动力学、海洋生物资源的开发与管理等方面的应用、研究进展及相关问题.在总结以上研究进展的基础上,本文对系统动力学复杂性在海洋生态学研究中的应用进行了展望.     

Dynamic preservation of the coastline in the Netherlands

In 1990, the Government and Parliament of the Netherlands decided on a new national policy for coastal defence. To ensure the enduring safety of the low-lying polders as well as the sustainable preservation of the coastal dunes, it was decided to maintain the coastline in its 1990 position. The main method for coastline preservation in the Netherlands is beach nourishment. Since 1991, approximately 7 million m³ of sand is added to the Dutch beaches annually. From an evaluation study of sand nourishment projects it is concluded that nourishment is an effective and efficient method to preserve the coastline. The evaluation study also proves that nourishment projects should be ‘tailor-made’, taking the local morphological and hydraulic conditions into account. The first results of an experimental shoreface nourishment are discussed. The choice for nourishment as the principal method to combat erosion is well in line with the intention to restore the natural dynamics of the dune-coast in the Netherlands. The key probably is a less strict policy with regard to the maintenance of the foredunes. Plans for the development of typical coastal features such as slufters^*, wash-overs, blow-outs and mobile dunes are currently under discussion. A slufter is a breakthrough in the first dune-ridge whereby the sea invades former dune slacks or beach plains situated behind the duneridge. In this way a tidal marsh is formed within the dune zone.     

间甲酚对杂色云芝(Coriolus versicolor)生长及产漆酶能力的影响

分别进行了间甲酚浓度为0mg·L-1,166 7mg·L-1和275mg·L-13种情况下的杂色云芝实罐发酵试验,定时测定了3种情况下菌丝干重(DC)、淀粉消耗、间甲酚降解和酶活性随时间的变化.在无间甲酚时,菌丝干重在188h达到最大值2600mg·L-1;在120h开始出现酶活,228h达到最大值82 15U·mL-1后,呈现一个稳定态势,不因衰亡期的到来而有较大幅度的变化.在加入166 7mg·L-1间甲酚时,菌丝干重在204h方达到最大值(995mg·L-1),且较无间甲酚时低得多(降低61 73%);在180h开始出现酶活,204h达到最大值(118 36U·L-1),并高出前者44 1%,此后也呈现一个稳定的态势.在加入间甲酚浓度为275mg·L-1时,菌丝干重在372h方达到最大值(320mg·L-1),但仅是无间甲酚的12 31%,间甲酚浓度为166 7mg·L-1时的32 16%;在264h开始出现酶活,396h达到最大值(112 8U·L-1),其酶活水平与间甲酚为166 7mg·L-1情况下的水平相当,这说明间甲酚可以诱导杂色云芝达到较高的产酶水平.研究发现在上述条件下杂色云芝生长的时间统计模型3种情况下的动力学模型可以用Logistic方程来模拟,即间甲酚的加入,并不改变其生长动力学模型;杂色云芝产漆酶的动力学模型在3种情况下可以分别用一级反应动力学方程描述;3种情况下,淀粉消耗均可以用Logistic模型来描述,从3个方     

木根麦冬的种群数量动态

运用静态生命表、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型,研究了木根麦冬种群数量动态过程,揭示了种群各龄级植株的动态规律,结果表明,木根麦冬种群为衰退型种群,种群的净增殖率、内禀增长率和周限增长率较低,种群世代周期偏长,种群不能自我更新,在20a内种群幼苗数量和总数量将持续快速下降,木根麦冬种群在16-20a年龄段受到了环境筛的强烈过滤作用。     

Combined molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical study of (+)-multifidene structure and conformation

Molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics and quantum mechanical tools have been used to explore the conformational space of (+)(3S,4S)-multifidene bioactive compounds. All the computations have been performed in the absence and presence of the solvent, simulated by the explicit introduction of a number of water molecules or by the polarized continuum model (PCM). Three conformational minima, both in vacuo and in water (simulated by PCM tool), have been confirmed at ab initio level of theory (B3LYP and MP2). All minima lie in a very narrow range of energy, and the interconversion between them is possible with a small amount of energy expense.     

An Ecologically Destabilized Environment: Its Effect on Small-Mammal Populations

Characteristics of the small-mammal populations inhabiting forest biocenoses in the Middle Ural state reserves have been analyzed over in the period from 1987 to 2002. During this period, the habitats of these animals were considerably destabilized due to windfalls and fires. The environmental characteristics of animal microhabitats at different stages of environment destabilization have been described quantitatively. Changes in the long-term cycles of the population dynamics of the dominant forest vole species caused by the destabilizing factors have been found. Redistribution of species dominance with respect to abundance has been demonstrated.     

Specific Features of the Dynamics of Murine Rodent Communities under the Effects of Urbanization: 2. Maintenance of Population Size

The reproduction dynamics of nonsynanthropic rodents living in urbanized areas was compared with that of rodents from natural communities. The number of females in a community and the number of embryos and placental spots per female were estimated. The mechanisms providing for the maintenance of population size were different in different habitats. In particular, the urban communities of murine rodents proved to have a higher reproductive potential.     

通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学机制与模式研究

建立符合通用航空发展规律的通用航空安全管理理论体系,是通用航空发展的前提.本文以通用航空发展特点为基础,应用自组织理论对通用航空发展的组织特性进行了分析,研究了通用航空安全体系自组织生成模式的前提条件和动因,剖析了通用航空安全体系自组织演化的内外部动力因素,以及其相互作用方式和过程,从而解构出通用航空安全体系自组织演化的动力学机制—涨落机制、创新机制、选择机制和学习机制,在此基础上,构建了通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学模型.最后,结合实际对我国通用航空安全管理体系建设提出了相应的建议.     

雨雪冰冻灾害后粤北森林各林型凋落物动态

为了考察中国亚热带不同森林类型对雨雪冰冻灾害的响应模式,以粤北天井山3种代表性的林型—针叶林、阔叶林和混交林为对象,于不同森林类型中比较受损森林与未受损森林在凋落物年产量、成分及月际动态方面的差异,从而在凋落物水平上反映不同森林类型在雨雪冰冻灾害后的早期恢复力。研究结果表明,灾后针叶林、阔叶林和混交林的年凋落量分别为0.52、3.21、1.37 t.hm-2,比未受损的同种森林类型年凋落量显著减少,减少程度分别为87.89%、53.46%、76.78%。由此可以看出阔叶林的植被恢复情况最好,说明在凋落物水平上,其灾后恢复的早期阶段恢复力最强。在凋落物成分方面,灾后各森林类型叶凋落物所占比例显著增加,枝凋落物所占比例则显著减少。受损针叶林和阔叶林的凋落物月动态与未受损森林基本一致,但其波动幅度较小;在混交林中,受损和未受损森林其凋落量的季节动态模式则表现出不一致性且为不规则型。根据研究结果,建议在亚热带地区优先考虑种植阔叶林以促进受损森林在类似雨雪冰冻灾害的极端天气后的恢复。     

A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.