Designing Climate-Smart Conservation: Guidance and Case Studies

Abstract:  To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible.     

An Observation Method for Analyzing Operators’ Routine Activity in Computerized Control Rooms

An activity analysis method was developed for studying the structure and dynamics of control room operators’ activity during normal operation based on directly observable elements of the operators’ behavior. The method assesses current activity along three dimensions in each 5-min period of the shift. Intensity characterizes arousal level, direction shows whether the activity is directed predominantly at the process control task, at something else, or miscellaneous. Motivation reflects if the activity is driven by intrinsic or extrinsic motivation. A case study is presented, in which 3 morning, 3 afternoon, and 3 night shifts of a Nuclear Power Plant operator crew are involved. The obtained results gave a deeper understanding of the operators’ activity and also revealed an “arousal compensation” tendency.     

地震应急避难需求的系统动力学研究

为定量研究地震应急避难人群的规模及变化规律,建立需求分析的系统动力学模型。该模型包括建筑物倒塌,断水和电梯停运3种因素造成的需求。参考汶川地震中板房建设速度和电梯修复速度,以及日本关于地震断水率的研究成果,建立非线性模型拟合各需求的变化规律。采用Vensim软件建立系统动力学模型,分析各需求的综合变化规律。采用上海市徐汇区的数据进行案例演算,并与其他研究方法对比分析仿真误差。仿真结果表明:建筑物损坏对人群数量的影响很大,但是灾后1个月内断水的影响最大;相对于工程技术因素,人因对需求有重要的影响。     

徐闻珊瑚礁保护区海水中多环芳烃的初探

2006年8月,对徐闻珊瑚礁自然保护区中多环芳烃的污染现状进行调查和研究,采用固相萃取,GC-MS检测,分析其中16种多环芳烃（PAHs）单体的含量,结果表明该海域海水中16种PAHs的总平均含量为87.06±90.62 ng·L^-1,变化范围为43.31～435.64 ng·L^-1,与世界其它一些近岸海区海水中的PAHs含量相比污染较为严重。A1站位的PAHs含量偏高,主要来源于陆地的工业废水和生活污水以及渔船油污。PAHs含量的增多对珊瑚礁生态系统具有一定影响,最终将影响到人类的自身健康。     

Dynamics of the Coordination of Economy-Society and Resource-Environment in Shandong Peninsula,China

Abstract

Shandong Peninsula, as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China, is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures. This paper tried to track and assess the coordination status and the dynamic between resource-environment and economy-society systems in Shandong Peninsula during 2001—2008 in order to provide decision support for regional sustainability. An appraisal index system was built including five aspects of harmony degree (A), sustainability degree (B), opening degree (C), stability degree (D) and controllability degree (E). The results showed that: 1) The coordination level of resource-environment and economy-society in Shandong Peninsula has continuously grown, and it has undergone three stages: no coordinated degree (2001–2002), weak coordinated degree (2003–2006) and basically coordinated degree (2007– 2008). 2) Five indexes of criterion hierarchy also increased overall, but each index showed different trends. Harmony degree, sustainability degree and opening degree rose all the time, while stability degree and controllability degree alternately rose and fell. The improvement of controllability degree was the slowest. 3) The aggravating trend of environmental pollution was slowing down. The economic growth was driven by industrial growth and urbanization typically and investment was still the main force to pull the regional economic growth. At the same time, technology and education were becoming more and more important for economic growth. The level of foreign capital utility declined and the geographical advantage of Shandong Peninsula was exerted. Meanwhile some characteristics of knowledge economy were presenting. Water resources become the main constraint factor of fast development in Shandong Peninsula. It is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability of government on regional sustainable development.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Ethnobotany and ecological perspectives on the management and use of plant species for a traditional fishing trap, southern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

The cerco-fixo is an artisanal fishing trap widely used by traditional communities in the estuarine region of the southern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The primary goal of the study was to investigate, through ethnobotanical and ecological approaches, the use of plant species by traditional fishermen to build the cerco-fixo at Cardoso Island State Park and Cananéia Island. Ethnobotanical data were collected through interviews, direct observation, plant collection and identification, and document analysis. An ecological evaluation was also done comparing five 20 × 20 m plots in a managed area to five 20 × 20m plots in an unmanaged area, both within arboreal sandy soil vegetation called restinga arbórea, found within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. This study involved 34 fishermen living at Cardoso and Cananéia Islands. The fishermen know more than 90 Atlantic Forest plant species that can be used to build the cerco-fixo. Tree species from the family Myrtaceae were the most quoted in the interviews. With respect to the ecological evaluation, the cluster analyses showed greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition (i.e. greater floristic dissimilarity) within the plots of the managed area. The analyses of diversity showed a slightly higher species richness and slightly lower values for Shannon, Simpson, Hurlbert’s PIE and Evenness indices in the managed area (59 species; H′ = 3.28; 1/D = 10.77; E = 0.80; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.91) compared to the unmanaged area (54 species; H′ = 3.39; 1/D = 20.21; E = 0.85; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.95). The Hutcheson’s t test showed no significant difference between both areas’ Shannon diversity indices (t: −1.04; p: 0.30). These results are attributed to the greater dominance of the palm species Euterpe edulis Mart. in the managed area (28.2% of the trees sampled at this area; n = 118), which equals twice the percentage of individuals of the same species found for the unmanaged area (14.6% of the sampled trees; n = 48). We discuss the impact of the fishermen’s harvesting practices in the managed area with an emphasis on three main points: (1) the harvesting practices are likely not contributing to a decrease in diversity in the managed area; (2) the greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition found for the managed area may reflect a mosaic pattern created by the opening of small tree-gaps distributed across this area over the course of more than 50 years; (3) the disturbance promoted by the fishermen’s harvesting practices can be compared to natural disturbances of low impact that create mosaic patterns in tropical forests. This study emphasizes the prominence of the human dimension in ecological processes and the importance of considering the perspectives of local people when discussing the conservation of the natural environments in which these people live.     

计算流体动力学在模拟气升式环流反应器中的研究进展

计算流体动力学(CFD)是对气升式环流反应器进行数值模拟的重要手段.为此,本文综述了CFD模拟概况及气升环流反应器中流体数值模拟研究进展,总结了目前CFD模拟气升环流反应器存在的问题,并提出了进一步的研究方向.     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.     

Impact of excess and harmful radiation on energy budgets in scleractinian corals

Using dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory, this paper explores the potential of excess and harmful radiation, notably UV, to cause changes in performance and, ultimately, bleaching in scleractinian corals for a range of ambient nitrogen and (beneficial) photosynthetically active radiation levels. Two negative impacts of radiation are considered: a reduction in the capacity of the symbiont to generate energy through photosynthesis (defined in this paper as photoinhibition); an increase in the costs for the symbiont to remain viable due to repair of damage (defined in this paper as photodamage). Model predictions indicate that although both types of impact reduce the growth potential of host and symbiont, photoinhibition predominantly affects host features, except at very low ambient nitrogen levels, under which conditions the severity of nitrogen limitation is so strong that a reduction in photosynthetic rates due to photoinhibition has minimal impact. In steady state, photoinhibition leads to a reduction in host biomass, and an increase in symbiont density, implying that photoinhibition (as defined in this paper) is unlikely to cause bleaching. In contrast, the impact of photodamage is mostly affecting symbiont features, including a decline in symbiont density. Thus, photodamage may contribute to coral bleaching. Furthermore, the model predicts that, with both photoinhibition and photodamage, an increasing ratio of harmful to beneficial radiation accelerates the suppression of growth rates of symbiont and host, implying that coral health deteriorates progressively faster with increasing harmful radiation, such as UVb.