Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

Artificial indoor streams as a method to investigate the impact of chemicals on lotic communities

The potential hazard of chemicals on aquatic communities are generally evaluated by standardised single-species bioassays. Safety assessment is based on results gained from organisms adapted to lentic systems and biological interactions in ecosystems are neglected. While lotic communities are often at first in contact with chemicals, it is astonishing that microcosms with lentic communities are mainly used as a bridge between laboratory bioassays and outdoor aquatic systems. Hence, we established five artificial indoor streams to simulate abiotic factors of small rivers. The closed-circuit system was filled with nutrients added to tap water. Washed pebbles were used as sediment. The dynamics of a simple biocoenoses consisting of aufwuchs, Lumbriculus variegatus Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus fossarum was investigated. The dynamic of aufwuchs and periphyton was determined as dry weight and chlorophyll-a, respectively and qualitatively by pigment pattern. The abundance of different developmental stages of L. variegatus was determined at the end of the experiment as well as the population dynamics of G. fossarum and A. aquaticus. Survival rates of gammarids and juveniles per female were investigated and data were used for modelling the population dynamics. The experiment was carried out to investigate the performance of the established artificial streams and the developed approaches to investigate effects of chemicals on a basic lotic community. The prime reason to establish this approach was to close a gap between complex artificial stream systems and laboratory single species tests to assess the impact of chemicals on the aquatic environment.     

Assessing the Leakage Rates from Punctured Submerged Vessels

The leakage of fluid leaving a puncture in a pressurized vessel immersed in a quiescent, miscible medium is studied under steady flow conditions. This problem has engineering applications in submerged pipelines and hazardous gas lines. The leakage rate for the puncture is characterized as functions of various hydrodynamic and geometric conditions. Dimensional analysis shows that the leakage percent, Q*, is a function of the Reynolds number, the pressure ratio between the center of the tube and the external hydrostatic pressure, P^*, and the hole-to-main tube diameter ratio, D^*. The effect of puncture shape is also examined, rectangular and circular. A 3-D finite volume computational model is constructed for laminar flow of a Newtonian fluid under steady conditions and validated with supporting experiments. The results show that the fractional leakage rate Q* increases with P^* and approaches a constant value at high P^* for a fixed Reynolds number. In addition, it is found that the leakage rate increases with decreasing Reynolds number at a fixed pressure ratio. The geometric effect of the diameter ratio is shown to have a more pronounced effect near a pressure ratio of two with more fluid exiting the puncture for larger diameter ratios. The results of the shape analysis show that the circular puncture has the largest fractional leakage when compared to a rectangle with an equivalent cross-sectional area.     

A Minimal Model of Adiabatic Isotherms Surfacing in Very Shallow Waters

Based on a phenomenology that is rather frequent in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea), we analytically model the short time evolution of the temperature field inside a shallow layer of coastal water induced by a sudden offshore wind. In particular, we reproduce in a very simple way the unsteady surfacing of the isotherms forced by the marine current circulating in a vertical plane perpendicular to the coastline. The model is in agreement with the observations of a significant event recorded on 25 June, 2002 in the Gulf of Trieste.     

Renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy: balanced growth and transitional dynamics

We introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy, deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium. The model generates a long-run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere. The key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector. This naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth. We examine both the dynamic and long-run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters.     

水体表面微层中酞酸酯的光降解研究

研究了水体表面微层中酞酸酯化合物光降解的动力学,指出光催化降解符合一级动力学过程,实验证明：催化剂ＴｉＯ２为２ｇ．ｌ＾－１,ｐＨ为６,并有Ｈ２Ｏ２存在时,是ＤＢＰ,ＤＥＨＰ光降解的最佳条件,溶解氧增加有利于光降解,实际表面微层水样的光催化降解速率比模拟水样快。     

Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.     

Lag Effects in the Impacts of Mass Coral Bleaching on Coral Reef Fish, Fisheries, and Ecosystems

Abstract:  Recent episodes of coral bleaching have led to wide-scale loss of reef corals and raised concerns over the effectiveness of existing conservation and management efforts. The 1998 bleaching event was most severe in the western Indian Ocean, where coral declined by up to 90% in some locations. Using fisheries-independent data, we assessed the long-term impacts of this event on fishery target species in the Seychelles, the overall size structure of the fish assemblage, and the effectiveness of two marine protected areas (MPAs) in protecting fish communities. The biomass of fished species above the size retained in fish traps changed little between 1994 and 2005, indicating no current effect on fishery yields. Biomass remained higher in MPAs, indicating they were effective in protecting fish stocks. Nevertheless, the size structure of the fish communities, as described with size-spectra analysis, changed in both fished areas and MPAs, with a decline in smaller fish (<30 cm) and an increase in larger fish (>45 cm). We believe this represents a time-lag response to a reduction in reef structural complexity brought about because fishes are being lost through natural mortality and fishing, and are not being replaced by juveniles. This effect is expected to be greater in terms of fisheries productivity and, because congruent patterns are observed for herbivores, suggests that MPAs do not offer coral reefs long-term resilience to bleaching events. Corallivores and planktivores declined strikingly in abundance, particularly in MPAs, and this decline was associated with a similar pattern of decline in their preferred corals. We suggest that climate-mediated disturbances, such as coral bleaching, be at the fore of conservation planning for coral reefs.     

Application of machine learning methods to palaeoecological data

A palaeoecological study was conducted to investigate past environmental conditions and vegetation dynamics around the southwestern Ljubljana Moor. In order to find potential regularities and/or dependencies among co-existent plant species through time, different machine learning methods were applied to pollen records from the cores taken at Bistra and Ho?evarica. The data comprised relative pollen frequencies of the most common plant genera/families at particular core depths that correspond to particular ages in the Early and Mid Holocene periods. The applied methods include equation discovery and hierarchical clustering. Both methods have found plausible and explainable relationships among identified plant genera/families.