Forgetting about hazard

Abstract

This paper examines long-term recovery outcomes of businesses impacted by major natural disasters. Data were collected via two large-scale mail surveys—one administered to Santa Cruz County, California businesses 8 years after the Loma Prieta earthquake and the other administered to businesses in South Dade County, Florida, 6 years after Hurricane Andrew. Based on the results of OLS regression models, we argue that long-term recovery experiences of businesses are affected by various factors, including the economic sector in which a business operates, its age and financial condition, and the scope of its primary market; direct and indirect disaster impacts, including physical damage, forced closure, and disruption of operations; and owner perceptions of the broader economic climate. Previous disaster experience, level of disaster preparedness, and use of external sources of aid were not found to significantly affect the long-term economic viability of businesses in the two study communities.     

China's dairy crisis: impacts,causes and policy implications for a sustainable dairy industry

The dairy industry is an important part of the global economy, and the rapidly developing dairy enterprises in China have become increasingly important to the rest of the world. Due to increasing demand for dairy products and support from the government, China's dairy industry has thrived in recent decades. But rapid growth has been accompanied by a suite of industry/structural problems associated with raw milk supply, processing enterprises, product retailing and profit allocation. Thus, a major dairy crisis took place in 2008, triggered by a notorious melamine-contaminated milk event. The dairy crisis has had devastating impacts on China's dairy industry, negatively affecting farmers, consumers, processing enterprises and even government agencies. The Chinese government has developed rigorous measures to prevent future incidents of this sort, including the enactment of the Food Safety Law and reinstatement of the no-exemption quality inspection of food products. In this paper, we analyse the wide-ranging impacts and root causes of the recent dairy crisis in China. We also examine how the crisis has been handled and what measures have been put in place in its aftermath. Then we discuss policy implications for promoting the sustainability of China's dairy industry. Lessons learned from this crisis, as well as implications for policy improvements, should be valuable for the development of a sustainable dairy industry in other regions of the world.     

The social cost of carbon revisited

An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is crucial to climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach uses an integrated assessment model (IAM) to simulate time paths for the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, its impact on temperature, and resulting reductions in GDP. I have argued that IAMs have deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I present an approach to estimating an average SCC, which I argue can be a useful guide for policy. I rely on a survey of experts to elicit opinions regarding (1) probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, but not the causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avert an extreme outcome, i.e., a large climate-induced reduction in GDP. The average SCC is the ratio of the present value of lost GDP from an extreme outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert that outcome. I discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of confidence in their answers yields lower SCCs, $80 to $100/mt, but still well above the IAM-based estimates used by the U.S. government.     

Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin?

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.     

Mapping cumulative impacts of mining on sediment retention ecosystem service in an Australian mining region

Mining development can potentially lead to cumulative impacts on ecosystems and their services across a range of scales. Site-specific environmental impact assessments are commonly assessed for mining projects; however, large-scale cumulative impacts of multiple mines that aggregate and interact in resources regions have had little attention in the literature and there are few examples where regional-scale mining impacts have been assessed on ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify regional-scale cumulative impacts of mining on sediment retention ecosystem services. We apply the sediment delivery ratio model of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs to calculate and map the sediment retention and export using a synthetic catchment model and a real case study under different mining scenarios in an Australian mining region. Two impact indices were created to quantify the cumulative impacts associated with a single mine and the interactions between multiple mines. The indices clarified the magnitude of impacts and the positive/negative impacts associated with regional-scale sediment retention and export. We found cumulative impacts associated with multiple mines’ interaction occurred but the influence of these interactions was relatively weak. This research demonstrated the potential for utilising ecosystem services modelling for the quantitative assessment of the cumulative impacts. Such research provide decision-makers and planners with a tool for sustainable regional and landscape planning that balances the needs of mining and the provision of ecosystem services.     

城市人工构筑物的多尺度生态影响

人工构筑物是城市生态系统的重要组成部分,是人-自然耦合关系的基本作用单元。自然要素中的水、土、气、生通过人工构筑物这一基本单元作用或影响人的生存、健康与发展,而人通过构筑物作用或影响自然中的水、土、气、生,进一步进化成人为主导、构筑物为基础、自然要素为条件的城市生态系统。论文综述了近年来人工构筑物多尺度生态影响的研究进展,评述了人工构筑物对土壤（水）、大气、生物生态影响的前沿动态,提出了各研究分支的关注重点及要解决的关键问题,分析了人工构筑物生态学研究的方法学问题与挑战,展望了未来该领域的基本发展走向。论文认为,构筑物生态影响涉及城乡水、土、气、生及人的健康等不同方面,现有的相关研究分散而局部,且受技术方法局限,分析结果存在很大的不确定性,研究面临巨大的转型挑战。未来构筑物生态学研究需要多学科、多尺度、多层次的系统化方法与技术的推动,城乡生态观测与实验技术的发展、多源数据处理技术以及智能计算方法的创新是该领域取得重大发展的基础与条件。     

制造企业生产过程环境影响评估系统研究

制造企业生产过程环境影响评估系统是对产品车间生产过程绿色性进行评估的系统,通过分析产品在生产过程各阶段以及整体的资源消耗和环境排放情况,来评定产品的生产制造过程是否符合绿色制造要求,以及应该在哪些方面进行改进,它是绿色生产过程得以实现的关键之一。研究制造企业生产过程环境影响评估系统的结构,基于生命周期评价(LCA)及生态指数Eco-indicators99方法建立环境影响评估模型,探讨生产过程环境影响评估的理论及方法,最后通过在车间中电弧焊接过程为实例分析验证了评价模型的可行性。     

Simulation of cumulative effects of nearshore restoration projects on estuarine hydrodynamics

Many nearshore restoration projects are currently underway at coastal locations where human influence and development have disrupted natural habitat and coastal ecological systems. The objectives of these projects in general are to restore the lost estuarine functions to the tidal marshland. Often these projects are conducted with little understanding of the potential effects of other nearby projects within the ecosystem, and similarly, it is easy to neglect the effect of the local project on the larger estuarine scale. In this paper, a modeling study is presented to evaluate the hydrodynamic responses of multiple restoration projects and their cumulative effect in the Snohomish River estuary in Washington, USA. The concept of absolute mean tidal transport is introduced and used to measure the cumulative effect of the proposed restoration projects on the estuarine hydrodynamics. The results show that the hydrodynamic responses due to multiple restoration projects are additive in the estuary, and the effect is nonlinear. The hydrodynamic response under restoration conditions depends on the size of the restoration area and the geometric configuration of the existing river channels. Within a complex braided estuary such as the Snohomish, the influence of a specific restoration project is not only experienced locally, but also found to significantly affect tidal transport in all distributary branches within the system.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.