我国113个城市大气颗粒物污染的健康经济学评价

搜集2006年我国113个主要城市的PM10年均浓度和当年我国城市居民的健康资料,评价大气PM10污染对我国113个主要城市的居民健康影响,并粗略估算了相关的健康经济损失.结果表明,2006年大气PM10污染对我国113个城市的居民造成了较大的健康损失,可引起29.97万例过早死亡,9.26万例慢性支气管炎,762.51万例内科门诊,16.59万例心血管疾病住院和8.90万例呼吸系统疾病住院.折算成货币,总归因健康经济损失为3414.03亿元,其中由过早死亡造成的损失占87.79%.     

青海省民和县-海石湾土壤Hg异常调查及其生态效应

通过对民和县-海石湾城区及其周边地区表层土壤Hg元素异常空间分布特征的分析,查明了大气降尘是当地Hg异常的最主要来源,此外生活、工业固废污染也是可能的原因;在垂向分布上,自上而下Hg元素大体呈上升趋势,显示表面Hg元素富集。对土壤中Hg形态进行特征分析,探讨了Hg的各形态与含量之间的相关性,结果显示:残渣态>强有机态>腐植酸态>铁锰氧化态>水溶态>碳酸盐态>离子交换态。异常区土壤Hg的累积并未造成小麦及玉米的重金属超标,未影响到其食用安全性,但是潜在威胁性存在。     

Adaptation and mitigation as complementary tools for reducing the risk of climate impacts

This paper uses the likelihood of flooding along Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in India to explore the hypothesis that adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as complements rather than sustitutes. For futures where climate change will produce smooth, monotonic and manageable effects, adopting a mitigation strategy is shown to increase the ability of adaptation to reduce the likelihood of crossing critical threshold of tolerable climate. For futures where climate change will produce variable impacts overtime, though, it is possible that mitigation will make adaptation less productive for some time intervals. In cases of exaggerated climate change, adaptation may fail entirely regardless of how much mitigation is applied. Judging the degree of complementarity is therefore an empirical question because the relative efficacy of adaptation is site specific and path dependent. It follows that delibrations over climate policy should rely more on detailed analyses of how the distributions of possible impacts of climate might change over space and time.

Improving the Chest Protection of Elderly Occupants in Frontal Crashes Using SMART Load Limiters

Objective: To determine whether varying the seat belt load limiter (SBL) according to crash and occupant characteristics could have real-world injury reduction benefits in frontal impacts and, if so, to quantify those benefits.

Methods: Real-world UK accident data were used to identify the target population of vehicle occupants and frontal crash scenarios where improved chest protection could be most beneficial. Generic baseline driver and front passenger numerical models using a 50th percentile dummy were developed with MADYMO software. Simulations were performed where the load limiter threshold was varied in selected frontal impact scenarios. For each SBL setting, restraint performance, dummy kinematics, and injury outcome were studied in 5 different frontal impact types. Thoracic injury predictions were converted into injury probability values using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ age-dependent thoracic risk curves developed and validated based on a methodology proposed by Laituri et al. (2005). Real-world benefit was quantified using the predicted AIS 2+ risk and assuming that an appropriate adaptive system was fitted to all the cars in a real-world sample of recent frontal crashes involving European passenger cars.

Results: From the accident data sample the chest was the most frequently injured body region at an AIS 2+ level in frontal impacts (7% of front seat occupants). The proportion of older vehicle front seat occupants (>64 years) with AIS 2+ injury was also greater than the proportion of younger occupants. Additionally, older occupants were more likely to sustain seat belt–induced serious chest injury in low- and moderate-speed frontal crashes. In both front seating positions, the low SBL provided the best chest injury protection, without increasing the risk to other body regions. In severe impacts, the low SBL allowed the driver to move dangerously close to the steering wheel. Compared to the driver side, greater ride-down space on the passenger side gave a higher potential for using the low SBLs. When applying the AIS 2+ risk reduction findings to the weighted accident data sample, the risk of sustaining an AIS 2+ seat belt injury changed to 0.9, 4.9, and 8.1% for young, mid, and older occupants, respectively, from their actual injury risk of 1.3, 7.6, and 13.1%.

Conclusions: These results suggest the potential for improving the safety of older occupants with the development of smarter restraint systems. This is an important finding because the number of older users is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20 years. The greatest benefits were seen at lower crash severities. This is also important because most real-world crashes occur at lower speeds.     

多壁碳纳米管短期作用对活性污泥系统脱氮除磷效果的影响

研究了不同质量浓度(1 mg/L和20 mg/h)多壁碳纳米管(Muhiwalled Carbon Nanotubes,MWCNTs)短期(21 d)作用对序批式活性污泥反应器(SBR)废水脱氮除磷效果的影响.结果表明,1mg/L和20mg/L MWCNTs废水的持续作用对反应器出水NH4+-N、NO3--N、NO2--N和TP质量浓度(分别为0.35 mg/L、4.5 mg/L、0.1 mg/L和0.15 mg/L)及1个反应周期内的氮磷转化过程并未产生明显的影响.活性污泥3h呼吸抑制试验表明,低质量浓度(ρ＜100 mg/L)MWCNTs短暂作用(3h)对活性污泥活性并没有明显的抑制作用.但当MWC-NTs质量浓度达到g/L级别后,MWCNTs对活性污泥活性存在明显的抑制作用,而且MWCNTs对活性污泥的呼吸抑制作用与质量浓度呈正相关性.研究表明,1 mg/k和20 mg/L MWCNTs对活性污泥系统短期作用并不影响活性污泥系统脱氮除磷的效果.     

Fly ash exploited in pavement layers in environmentally friendly ways

Increased care about the environment is currently evidenced by governmental, industrial, and consumer concern for ozone depletion, solid and liquid waste disposal, and pollutants. This concern has led to an increase in marketing of the “environmentally friendly” aspects of products. In the past, fly ash was generally released into the atmosphere, but pollution control equipment mandated in recent decades now requires that it is captured prior to release. In order to upgrade expansive soils as construction materials, fly ash, which is a waste material, has been selected and successfully used for stabilizing expansive clays in the Thrace region. The strength characteristics of the stabilized soils were measured. Depending upon the soil type, the effective fly ash content for improving the engineering properties of the soil varied between 8% and 12%. Using fly ash in roadwork projects will help the environment reducing the deposited amounts.     

Hydrologic Effects of Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia (U.S.)

Surface coal mining operations alter landscapes of the Appalachian Mountains, United States, by replacing bedrock with mine spoil, altering topography, removing native vegetation, and constructing mine soils with hydrologic properties that differ from those of native soils. Research has demonstrated hydrologic effects of mining and reclamation on Appalachian landscapes include increased peakflows at newly mined and reclaimed watersheds in response to strong storm events, increased subsurface void space, and increased base flows. We review these investigations with a focus on identifying changes to hydrologic flow paths caused by surface mining for coal in the Appalachian Mountains. We introduce two conceptual control points that govern hydrologic flow paths on mined lands, including the soil surface that partitions infiltration vs. surface runoff and a potential subsurface zone that partitions subsurface storm flow vs. deeper percolation. Investigations to improve knowledge of hydrologic pathways on reclaimed Appalachian mine sites are needed to identify effects of mining on hydrologic processes, aid development of reclamation methods to reduce hydrologic impacts, and direct environmental mitigation and public policy.     

Evaluating the Impacts of Environmental Flow Alternatives on Reservoir and Recreational Operations Using System Dynamics Modeling

Providing environmental flows is increasingly a management obligation in many water resource systems. Evaluating the impacts of environmental flow alternatives on other water uses in a basin can be a challenge, especially when collaborating with stakeholders. We demonstrate the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling to assess the impacts of four environmental flow alternatives in the Rio Chama, New Mexico. The model was developed to examine impacts of each alternative on reservoir storage and releases, hydropower production and revenue, and whitewater boating access. We simulated each alternative within a stochastic framework in order to explicitly incorporate hydrologic uncertainty into the analyses. The environmental flow alternatives were developed at a collaborative workshop of geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology experts. Results from the model indicate that the proposed flow recommendations on the Rio Chama will generally decrease annual reservoir storage, increase median flows, and have minimal impacts on hydropower production and whitewater rafting on the system. The Rio Chama case study is a promising example of how SD modeling can be used in the early stages of environmental flow studies and why it is compatible with collaborative modeling.     

基于林权制度改革对生态环境影响多维量表分析

林权改革是促进林业发展的根本措施,但不可否认其对生态环境产生一定的影响。2011年7-8月,本研究选择江西遂川,福建三明、永安,辽宁清原,北京怀柔等进行实地问卷调查,并对调查结果进行多维量表分析。研究表明：林权改革对森林生态环境有明显的影响,尤其林改前后林业的投入对森林生物多样性、森林水源涵养和水土保持有显著的影响。同时,农民（林农）对林权改革的态度、家庭年收入水平、教育程度和性别等对环境影响评价结果也有一定的影响。研究建议,林权改革涉及面广,并涉及国家生态环境安全和农民的长远利益,应该深入开展生态环境影响的评价研究,并把林权改革作为重点领域开展政策环境影响评价的试点,为在我国在规划环评基础上进一步推行政策环评制度和完善林权改革配套政策提供技术支撑。     

挥发性有机物税收政策对我国经济的影响分析

基于可计算的一般均衡模型,引入不同税率的间接税作为环境税的征收方式,在3种情景下对挥发性有机物的减排效果以及对我国宏观经济和产业部门的影响进行了分析.模型运算结果表明,从环境角度分析,对主要挥发性有机物排放部门征收间接税,对其排放起到了立竿见影的控制作用.从经济角度来看,环境税对国民经济发展的宏观指标,比如国民生产总值、总投入、总产出和消费等都产生了负面的影响,仅对政府收入的提高有促进作用.并且税率越高,对污染的控制力度越强,对经济的发展的影响也越加地明显.本文建议,挥发性有机物排放量的控制政策,需要以行政命令型控制手段为主,以逐步在重点污染排放行业征收低的间接税收政策为辅.