Spatial and temporal changes in Louisiana's Barataria Basin marshes, 1945–1980

A computerized geographic information system with site-specific change-detection capabilities was developed to document amounts, rates, locations, and sequences of loss of coastal marsh to open water in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA. Land-water interpretations based on 1945, 1956, 1969, and 1980 aerial photographs were used as input, and a modified version of the Earth Resources Laboratory Applications Software developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration was used as a spatial data base management system. Analysis of these data sets indicates that rates of marsh loss have increased from 0.36% per year in the 1945–56 period, to 1.03% per year in 1956–69, and to 1.96% per year in 1969–80. The patterns of marsh loss indicate that the combination of processes causing degradation of the marsh surface does not affect all areas uniformly. Marsh loss rates have been highest where freshwater marshes have been subject to saltwater intrusion. The increase in the wetland loss rates corresponds to accelerated rates of subsidence and canal dredging and to a cumulative increase in the area of canals and spoil deposits.     

MEASURING IMPACTS OF URBAN WATER DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT The role of water resources in the urban economic and social environment, particularly in the inner city, has never been established to the degree necessary for making informed decisions on investments in urban waterway and shoreline improvements. The basic tools for measuring psychological and social impacts of waterway and shoreline developments in the inner city have not been fully developed and utilized to date. However, through a detailed analysis of the water resources in the urban core area of Cleveland, it appears that deliberate development of water-based recreation and other environmental resources can lead to improvement in some of the social problems of the inner city. In recreation analysis, there is currently a great gap between methodologies that are conceptually sound and those that have been applied by urban and water-resources planning agencies. New tools and methodologies can only be used successfully when public agencies are given the institutional and policy means for using them equitably in light of social needs. Present urban-water planning practices have been found to be biased against the inner city, often unintentionally.     

我国海水利用现状及其对环境的影响

海水利用为解决全球水资源短缺提供了重要途径.本文综述了世界范围内海水利用方面的进展情况,评述了大生活用水和工业冷却水等海水直接利用及海水淡化过程对海洋环境的影响,特别是高温冷却海水和海水淡化浓盐水的排放以及化学物质的加入对海水水质、海洋生物的影响,并提出了预防和减轻这些影响的措施和方法.     

四川马边彝族自治县土地利用/覆被变化分析

采用基于最大似然法的监督分类方法对四川省马边彝族自治县1988年和2001年两期Landsate5 TM影像进行解译,利用单项土地利用动态指数〖WTBX〗（LUDI）、双向土地利用动态指数（Ki）以及土地利用类型转移矩阵（Cx×y）〖WTBZ〗等定量分析方法分析解译结果,得到马边县13年间土地利用/覆被动态及转移特征,并对可能的生态影响进行了分析预测。结果显示：①次生林面积增加,针叶林面积有所下降,灌草地被农田大量取代;②城镇及居民点和次生林的动态最为活跃,转入面积明显高于转出面积;③中山区和亚高山区林地构成发生变化,高山草甸面积有所萎缩,河谷区的阔叶林带被次生林大量取代,低山河谷区的土地破碎化程度增加。研究表明,13年间马边土地利用/覆被变化具有动态高、转换活跃、空间性强以及人为活动干扰影响明显等特点。其中,低山丘陵区的灌草坡大量被农地替代、中山区和亚高山区次生林面积扩大应该作为生态退化的信号加以重视。另外,气候变化对马边森林植被演替可能产生的影响应在今后进行深入的分析研究     

Modeling Long‐Term Trends of Chlorinated Ethene Contamination at a Public Supply Well

A mass‐balance solute‐transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long‐term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three‐dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.     

Microplastics pollution in Bangladesh: current scenario and future research perspective

ABSTRACT

Microplastics are emerging environmental pollutants that have gained tremendous scientific interest in recent years. These micropollutants are omnipresent both in the terrestrial and aquatic environments posing a deleterious threat to the ecosystem and biodiversity. So, it is important to develop a deep understanding of the environmental fate and potential adverse impacts of microplastics on the aquatic and terrestrial environments. By critically reviewing the previously published scientific literature, the present synthesis briefly outlines the characteristics, occurrence and potential toxic effects of microplastics on terrestrial and aquatic biota. The article also focuses on some innovative approaches for sustainable remediation of macroplastics as well as microplastics. Since the concept of microplastics pollution has yet in its infancy in Bangladesh, this synthesis provides an overview of the current scenario of microplastics pollution and some future research recommendations in the context of Bangladesh which might be helpful to the novice researchers of this field.     

Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematically described by the logistic probability density function. Consequently, the cumulative population follows a time trajectory that has the same shape as the cumulative logistic function. Thus, the Pearl–Verhulst logistic equation, widely used as a phenomenological model for density dependent population growth, can be interpreted as a model for cumulative rather than instantaneous population. We extend the cumulative density dependent differential equation model to allow skew in the bell-shaped population trajectory and present a simple statistical test for skewness. Model properties are exemplified by fitting population trajectories of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines. The linkage between the mechanistic underpinnings of the logistic probability density function and cumulative distribution function models could open up new avenues for analyzing population data.     

北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

北京市能源消费正面临着污染物减排和保障居民健康的双重约束. 针对未来城市能源消费设计BAU(基准情景)和2个分别基于近期和中长期节能环保要求的受控情景(EC1、EC2),模拟预测了3个情景下主要大气污染物(SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5)在目标年(2020年)的排放水平,以确定大气污染减排潜力. 分别采用综合暴露-反应关系模型(IER)和泊松回归模型,评估北京市居民对PM_2.5暴露的健康风险,估算健康损失的经济价值. 结果表明:相较BAU情景,在EC1情景下, SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5减排率分别达到52.95%、49.77%、32.82%、41.41%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病219 783例,其中死亡1 295例、住院3 920例、门诊182 558例、患病32 011例,获得健康效益111.87×108元;在EC2情景下,SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5的减排率分别达到66.61%、63.42%、54.96%、57.44%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病519 234例,其中死亡2 930例、住院9 248例、门诊427 070例、患病79 986例,获得健康效益290.10×108元. 相较EC1情景,EC2情景可产生更大的减排潜力和居民健康效益. 从空间分布上来看,北京主城区因能源方案优化获得的健康效益较大,约占总健康经济效益的60%.      

丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文时空变化的#br# 定量评估及其生态影响

采用变化范围法（RVA）定量研究了丹江口水库蓄水后汉江中下游水文情势的时空变化,评估出汉江干流变化度最大的江段和水文特征指标类别,分析了其对应的生态影响,并针对汉江流域的四大家鱼和水华问题进行了敏感水文指标的变化度分析。结果显示:丹江口大坝蓄水后,汉江下游河道流量是中变化度占主导,比例范围为47～63%;水位是高变化度占主导,襄阳站和皇庄站高变化度的水文指标所占比例远大于其它站点,依次为53% 和75%,各站水位较蓄水前下降了1～2 m。黄家港站高/低流量脉冲出现的频率减少（变化度为-0.49和 -0.62）,且持续的时间变短（变化度为-0.87和 -0.74）。皇庄站和襄阳站流量和水位的月均值和极值较蓄水前减少,逆转次数在高RVA范围内较蓄水前增加（变化度为1.82）。四大家鱼产卵的敏感水文指标出现频率较蓄水前减少,且为中高变化度。下游河道枯水期流量和水位减小,增加了水华发生几率。     

The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.