Interval-parameter Fuzzy-stochastic Semi-infinite Mixed-integer Linear Programming for Waste Management under Uncertainty

An interval-parameter fuzzy-stochastic semi-infinite mixed-integer linear programming (IFSSIP) method is developed for waste management under uncertainties. The IFSSIP method integrates the fuzzy programming, chance-constrained programming, integer programming and interval semi-infinite programming within a general optimization framework. The model is applied to a waste management system with three disposal facilities, three municipalities, and three periods. Compared with the previous methods, IFSSIP have two major advantages. One is that it can help generate solutions for the stable ranges of the decision variables and objective function value under fuzzy satisfaction degree and different levels of probability of violating constraints, which are informative and flexible for solution users to interpret/justify. The other is that IFSSIP can not only handle uncertainties through constructing fuzzy and random parameter, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through interval function of time over the planning horizon. By comparing IFSSIP with interval-parameter mixed-integer linear semi-infinite programming and parametric programming, the IFSSIP method is more reasonable than others.     

A spatial multicriteria decision making tool to define the best agricultural areas for sewage sludge amendment

Sewage sludge amendment on agricultural soils has recently become a practice of heightened interest, as a consequence of sewage sludge production increase. This practice has benefits to soil and crops, however it may also lead to environmental contamination, depending on the characteristics of the fields. In order to define the suitability of the different agricultural fields to receive sewage sludge, a spatial tool is proposed. This tool, elaborated in GIS platform, aggregates different criteria regarding human exposure and environmental contamination.The spatial tool was applied to a case study in the region of Catalonia (NE of Spain). Within the case study, each step of the tool development is detailed. The results show that the studied region has different suitability degrees, being the appropriate areas sufficient for receiving the total amount of sewage sludge produced. The sensitivity analysis showed that “groundwater contamination”, “distance to urban areas”, “metals concentration in soil” and “crop type” are the most important criteria of the evaluation.The developed tool successfully tackled the problem, providing a comprehensive procedure to evaluate agricultural land suitability to receive sewage sludge as an organic fertilizer. Also, the tool implementation gives insights to decision makers, guiding them to more confident decisions, based on an extensive group of criteria.     

大气气溶胶酸度的研究进展

大气气溶胶的环境效应、气候效应和健康效应均与气溶胶的物理化学性质直接相关,其中大气气溶胶酸度是其重要的性质之一。大气气溶胶酸度对酸沉降、灰霾的形成具有重要作用,并影响大气非均相化学反应,相关研究已成为国际研究的热点。对国内外学者近年来在大气气溶胶酸度对大气环境与人体健康的影响、大气气溶胶酸度的影响因素与变化规律、大气气溶胶酸度/酸化缓冲能力的测定与计算方法、大气气溶胶酸性成分采集系统等方面的研究进展作了较系统的综述,并对大气气溶胶酸度研究未来的发展进行了展望。     

The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub‐Saharan Africa

Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub‐Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub‐Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub‐Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought‐related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

我国安全生产基本特征规律研究

从经济社会发展视角,分析安全生产基本特征规律,指出安全生产随产业结构呈现不均衡分布特点,劳动力结构制约安全生产,城市化进程增加安全生产不稳定因素.安全生产与GDP对比分析表明,党和国家采取的一系列重大措施有效抑制了经济快速增长给安全生产带来的负面作用,我国安全生产提前进入事故波动期.通过研究区域经济与安全生产关系,得出我国4大经济区域社会经济发展水平与安全生产之间存在规律性分布特征.该研究的成果为建立安全生产长效机制,实现我国经济社会与生产安全协调发展探讨新的途径.     

日本安全监督管理启示录

通过对日本安全监督管理机构、研究机构、社团组织和企业的亲身考察 ,对日本安全生产法规建设、监督管理体系、工作机制、主要措施进行了分析、思考和总结 ,认为对如何加强我国安全生产监督管理、改进工作有很大的启示和有益的借鉴。希望文中介绍的内容和观点能在安全生产专家、学者中 ,引起广泛讨论 ,从而建立适合我国国情的安全生产法规体系、安全生产监督管理体系和符合时代发展的创新的安全生产工作思路。     

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

主观性在环境侵权案件证据和证明中的作用研究

法院在审理环境侵权案件时,往往依赖于专业鉴定、行政标准、专家意见等等客观依据来确定案件事实.但因为环境问题的复杂性,以及民事主体自身举证能力的限制,经常出现双方举证均不充分,法院无法基于现有事实和证据得出结论的情况.此时,法官应当发挥自身能动性,主动应用主观的、甚至是非科学性的因素和手段,包括容忍义务、经验法则、自由心证等等,这些因素无法被赋予客观的标准,它需要法官基于自身的理性以及经验,结合社会一般观念、习惯等因素进行判断.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

基于模糊逻辑系统的管道风险评估

为了合理地对管道风险进行评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的管道风险评估方法.根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了管道风险评估的模糊逻辑方法模型,根据模糊风险矩阵及模糊规则库等理论研究成果,对管道风险进行模糊推理,并得出给定管道系统的模糊风险指标值.以某段天然气管道的风险评估为实例,证实该方法能够合理地评估出给定管道系统的...