公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

Attitude to safety rules and reflexivity as determinants of safety climate

IntroductionWe present two studies that focus on the relationship between safety rules and the safety climate. It is expected that a reasoned acceptance, namely one based on an understanding of the bases for the rules and a collective management of the rules, should benefit the climate. Method: In an initial study (N = 202) employees replied to a questionnaire that measured the safety climate, the level of the relationship with the safety rules, and the understanding of their bases. The results highlighted the fact that a reasoned acceptance of the rules is associated with an understanding of their bases and predicts the level of safety. In a second study (N = 258) employees replied to a questionnaire measuring team reflexivity, the safety climate, and the level of relationship with the safety rules. We observed that collective management of the rules mediated the relation between team reflexivity and the safety climate. Results: The results are discussed from the point of view of their practical implications. Developing safety climate requires that operators are trained to understand the basis of safety rules and team reflexivity.     

The spillover effects of coworker,supervisor, and outsider workplace incivility on work‐to‐family conflict: A weekly diary design

This study used an experience sampling design to examine the spillover effects of experienced workplace incivility from organizational insiders (coworkers and supervisors, respectively) and organizational outsiders (patients and their visitors) on targets' work‐to‐family conflict and to test the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of display rules. Data collected over five consecutive weeks from 84 full‐time nurses showed that within individuals, weekly experiences of coworker incivility and outsider incivility were positively related to weekly experience of work‐to‐family conflict, and burnout mediated these relationships while controlling for initial level of burnout before participants started a week's work. In addition, display rules, defined as the extent to which individuals perceive they are expected to display desired positive emotions and suppress negative emotions at work, moderated the relationship between outsider incivility and burnout; specifically, the positive relationship between weekly outsider incivility and burnout was stronger for individuals who perceived a higher level of display rules. Our findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating the mediating effect of burnout and the moderating effect of perceived display rules in the relationship between workplace incivility from multiple sources and work‐to‐family conflict from a resource perspective.     

Limitations of current risk assessment methods to foresee emerging risks: Towards a new methodology?

The objective of this work-in-progress is to investigate the potentialities but also the limitations of traditional risks analysis tools especially in the context of emerging technologies and develop a method facilitating the early detection of scenarios of accidents. This is certainly a challenge particularly for new industrial fields since, in this case, very little or no lesson from past accidents is available. It is believed that such situations cannot be conveniently treated using traditional risk assessment methods (HAZOP, FMEA, …) and typical examples are given. The reason is that those methods rely heavily on past accidents and are therefore “trapped” in them so that they are largely “inductive”. In terms of foreseeing the future, the shortcomings of inductive methods are recalled. The possibility to imagine the future with very little clues is then discussed on the ground of theoretical consideration and a way to do so is proposed (abduction, serendipity). Then on the basis of the observation of how the experts work and how discoveries are made, a potential new methodology is outlined.     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world

We examine issues to consider when reframing conservation science and practice in the context of global change. New framings of the links between ecosystems and society are emerging that are changing peoples’ values and expectations of nature, resulting in plural perspectives on conservation. Reframing conservation for global change can thus be regarded as a stage in the evolving relationship between people and nature rather than some recent trend. New models of how conservation links with transformative adaptation include how decision contexts for conservation can be reframed and integrated with an adaptation pathways approach to create new options for global‐change‐ready conservation. New relationships for conservation science and governance include coproduction of knowledge that supports social learning. New processes for implementing adaptation for conservation outcomes include deliberate practices used to develop new strategies, shift world views, work with conflict, address power and intergenerational equity in decisions, and build consciousness and creativity that empower agents to act. We argue that reframing conservation for global change requires scientists and practitioners to implement approaches unconstrained by discipline and sectoral boundaries, geopolitical polarities, or technical problematization. We consider a stronger focus on inclusive creation of knowledge and the interaction of this knowledge with societal values and rules is likely to result in conservation science and practice that meets the challenges of a postnormal world.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

水污染源总量控制方法研究

以济南市的水污染源为基础,从排污量、废水组成、产污环节、污染物种类等方面对水污染源进行调查与分析,建立了水污染源各要素的多级递阶结构评价体系,采用层次分析法基础上的模糊评判法筛选出22家代表性企业,并对其连续等比例加密监测,研究浓度-时间、排水量-时间和排污负荷-时间之间的变化关系,得出水污染源排放的浓度主导型、水量主导型、混合型、生活污水型4种排污规律,为水污染源实行浓度控制和总量控制双轨制管理、实施污染物总量监测提供技术支持.      

安全管理体系的计算机辅助审核技术研究

关于海运公司安全管理体系 (SMS)的现行审核方法 ,难以保证其文件全面符合国际和国内的强制性规定 ,制约了《国际安全管理 (ISM)规则》效能的发挥。为此 ,课题组基于网络环境开发了对 SMS文件的计算机辅助审核技术 ,其主要成果包括 :建立了法规条款与 SMS文件的映射规则 ,使两者迅速匹配 ,以供审核 ;提出了 SMS文件符合法规程度的数学评价方法 ;设计了计算机辅助审核方案。经试审核 ,表明该技术能协助审核员迅速全面地发现 SMS文件对法规的不符合项 ,给出的符合程度定量合理 ,该技术有利于全面提高 SMS文件对法规条款的符合程度 ,从而方便了公司的全面履约。该技术还可用于类似的管理体系。     

Disaster threat: Preparedness and potential response of the lowest income quartile

For a community to manage hazards successfully, those who are responsible for planning and implementing responses to a disaster threat situation must understand the social and economic realities of populations at risk. A random sample survey of residents in the vicinity of a US Army chemical weapons storage depot in Alabama confirms that those in the lowest quartile of household income (i.e., less than US $25,000 in 1999) differ in important ways from the rest of the sample. Using economic status as a grouping variable resultedin identifying a concentration of individuals with special needs. This group differed significantly from the remainder of the sample as to demographic and attitudinal characteristics, hazard knowledge and concerns, emergency preparedness, and emergency decision-making and their likelihood of taking protective actions. Respondents in the lowest income quartile reported greater restrictions in physical abilities, fewer community contacts, a heightened concern about area hazards, and limited resources for taking preparedness and response actions.