室内环境对人造板甲醛释放规律影响分析研究

为了研究不同温湿度条件下人造板甲醛的释放规律,利用环境舱模拟人造板在室内特征温湿度下甲醛的散发过程,测量甲醛的逐时散发浓度。结果表明,温度升高,木板中甲醛的释放浓度增大,环境舱内木板甲醛释放达到稳定的时间越长;相对湿度增加,木板中甲醛释放浓度随之增加。改变温湿度对环境舱内板材甲醛的释放趋势影响小。夏季工况的温湿度均高于冬季和过渡季,所以甲醛释放浓度为夏季＞过渡季＞冬季,其峰值浓度高于其他两季约3～5倍。     

Fuzzy modelling to identify key drivers of ecological water quality to support decision and policy making

Water quality modelling is an effective tool to investigate, describe and predict the ecological state of an aquatic ecosystem. Various environmental variables may simultaneously affect water quality. Appropriate selection of a limited number of key-variables facilitates cost-effective management of water resources. This paper aims to determine (and analyse the effect of) the major environmental variables predicting ecological water quality through the application of fuzzy models. In this study, a fuzzy logic methodology, previously applied to predict species distributions, was extended to model environmental effects on a whole community. In a second step, the developed models were applied in a more general water management context to support decision and policy making. A hill-climbing optimisation algorithm was applied to relate ecological water quality and environmental variables to the community indicator. The optimal model was selected based on the predictive performance (Cohen’s Kappa), ecological relevance and model’s interpretability. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed as an extra element to analyse and evaluate the optimal model. The optimal model included the variables land use, chlorophyll and flow velocity. The variable selection method and sensitivity analysis indicated that land use influences ecological water quality the most and that it affects the effect of other variables on water quality to a high extent. The model outcome can support spatial planning related to land use in river basins and policy making related to flows and water quality standards. Fuzzy models are transparent to a wide range of users and therefore may stimulate communication between modellers, river managers, policy makers and stakeholders.     

A model for supply chains environmental performance analysis and decision making

The need to include environmental criteria in the analysis of supply chains is increasingly recognized as a result both of limitations that are posed by legislation and regulations as well as of various motivations that a company may have. A decision model is proposed in this paper based on environmental performance indicators, which may support decision making in the case of supply chains in the presence of environmental considerations. The model uses a set of principles applicable to supply chains design and operation available from previous research work.     

QUICKScan as a quick and participatory methodology for problem identification and scoping in policy processes

Policy making is required in cases in which a public good needs to be either maintained or created, and private or civil initiatives cannot deal alone with this. Policy making thus starts with a phase of problem identification and determining whether there is a problem that needs to be dealt with. Rapidly evolving contexts exert influence on policy makers who have to take decisions much faster and more accurately than in the past, also facing greater complexity. There is a need for a method that lowers the lead time of the exploratory phase of the policy cycle. At the same time the method should create a joint understanding of the most important interactions. This paper proposes QUICKScan, a method, process and spatially explicit tool, to jointly scope policy problems in a participatory setting, investigate the most important interactions and feedbacks and assesses the state of knowledge and data of relevance to the problem. QUICKScan uses strongly moderated participatory workshops bringing together a wide range of stakeholders relevant to the policy issue. These moderated workshops jointly build an expert system in a spatially explicit tool using functionality of bayesian belief networks, python programming, simple map algebra and knowledge matrices, with a strong focus on visualization of results. QUICKScan has been applied in 70 different applications in a range of different policy contexts, stakeholders and physical locations. Through these applications participants were able to internalize the knowledge that was usually handed to them in briefs and reports, to develop a joint understanding of the main interactions and their link to impacts and to develop a problem statement and solution space in a reduced lead time. Ultimately, QUICKScan demonstrates another role of science, not solely as a knowledge production, but also facilitating the knowledge consumption.     

Integrated resource management systems: Coupling expert systems with data-base management and geographic information systems

Decision making in natural resource management is becoming increasingly information-intensive because of the rising public concerns about resource conservation and environmental quality. The volume of information that must be analyzed and the complexity of the decision-making process demands that computerized systems be developed to provide decision support services. An integrated systems approach that couples data-base management, geographic information systems, and expert systems is needed. We refer to such an approach as integrated resource management automation (IRMA) and describe a prototype system that is currently being tested in the Nicolet National Forest. This type of information system is likely to play an increasingly important role in the management of natural resources in the future.     

关于美国城市环境管理的启示

城市环境管理是我国环保工作的重点之一,美国城市环境管理中的经验和教训,可以为我们提供一些借鉴。     

An inexact-stochastic with recourse model for developing regional economic-ecological sustainability under uncertainty

Effective planning of resources management is important for facilitating socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability. Such a planning effort is complicated with a variety of uncertain, dynamic and nonlinear factors as well as their interactions. In this study, an inexact-stochastic quadratic programming with recourse (ISQP-R) method is developed for reflecting dynamics of system uncertainties based on a complete set of scenarios as well as tackling nonlinearities in the objective function to reflect the effects of marginal utility on system benefits and costs. Moreover, since penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, the ISQP-R can support the analysis of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised targets are violated. The developed method is applied to a case study of planning resources management and developing regional ecological sustainability. The results have been generated and are helpful for decision makers in not only identifying desired resources-allocation strategies but also gaining insight into the tradeoff between economic objective and eco-environment violation risk.     

基于灰色关联分析的车辆交通事故规律研究

针对车辆交通事故统计数据少、事故原因划分模糊等特点,运用灰色系统理论思想,建立车辆交通事故灰色关联分析模型。根据车辆交通事故起数、死亡人数、受伤人数与各事故原因之间的灰色关联度,计算车辆交通事故因素关联序,确定车辆交通事故各原因的重要程度。分析影响车辆交通事故的最优支配因素,并据此研究车辆交通事故规律。研究结果表明,部队汽车驾驶员交通违法是造成车辆交通事故的主要原因,违法违纪成为制约车辆安全管理的一个重点和难点问题。     

An application of Markov Decision Programming to ecologico-cybernetics—A decision method applied to the antifrost of winter wheat

Modern ecologico-cybernetic principle is of importance to decreasing damages in relation to agricultural productions. As an illustration of this, the authors studied some of the questions about the optimal policy of choosing actions for the antifrost measures of winter wheat by means of the finite-stage model of Markov Decision Programming (MDP). The related data came from the investigation results of the investigated region in the northeastern part of Henan, China. First, the authors give the states, ecologico-cybernetic action measures, transition probabilities and reward values in relation to these antifrost action measures of winter wheat crop. Second, the authors describe the principles and computational procedures of the ecologico-cybernetic decision-makings based on the finite-stage model of MDP. Third, a simple table applicable to the decision-making practice is given. Finally, we evaluate the results of this study, point out their shortcomings and suggest that this method is applicable to the other fields in relation to decreasing damage ecologico-cybernetics.