Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox: Measurable performance information based tools for co-creation of resilient,ecosystem-based urban plans with urban designers,decision-makers and stakeholders

Currently, most tools, guidelines and benchmarks for urban adaptation raise awareness on climate change impacts, assess the city’s vulnerability and/or address the need for adaptation on a policy-level. However, tools that have the ability to implement adaptation solutions in the actual urban planning and design practice seem to be missing. We developed and tested the Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox (APST) to fill this gap. This toolbox supports local policymakers, planners, designers and practitioners in defining the program of demands, in setting adaptation targets, in selecting from more than 60 blue, green and grey adaptation measures and with informed co-creation of conceptual adaptation plans. The APST provides quantitative, evidence-based performance information on (cost)effectiveness of adaptation measures regarding climate resilience and co-benefits. The APST can be used design workshops, to feed dialogues among stakeholders on where and how which ecosystem-based adaptation measures can be applied. Applications of the AST in various settings and context in cities on different continents have illustrated the added value of the toolbox in bringing policy and practice together with help of science. With more and more cities worldwide that will make the step from policymaking to actual adaptation-inclusive urban (re)development practice we foresee a growing demand for such tools.     

Gaps in provincial decision-maker’s perception and knowledge of climate change adaptation in China

The perspectives and knowledge of decision makers, especially those at the provincial level, have great impact on the progress of climate change adaptation in China. Therefore, identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing climate adaptation awareness of decision makers at that level is very important. Based on this aim, we conducted a survey of climate change adaptation awareness among 85 administrative and management personnel from governmental departments responsible for climate change adaptation planning in five provinces. Study findings revealed that over half of respondents have knowledge of climate change adaptation measures, but the extent of understanding varied across different adaptation aspects and regions. Among the different aspects, understanding of measures related to human health protection was the lowest. A large majority of respondents indicated an eagerness to obtain knowledge and information about climate change adaptation, but the main barrier is a lack of training and learning material. When making adaptation plans or policies, the greatest obstacle expressed was a funding shortage. Information generated from this study can provide direction and guidance for training and educating provincial decision makers in order to improve the levels of adaptation planning and policy making.     

航空遥感的震害快速评估与救灾决策

根据邢台、海城、唐山、澜沧－耿马等震例的震害航空遥感信息建立的震害损失快速评估模型与技术系统，具有良好的应用效果，但是影响震害损失状态的因素甚多，使用时应注意区域的适用性和修订相应的常数。另外，还将自然科学与管理学综合为一体，总结了九种震害状态、九种救灾类型的决策系统，以供救灾实践的参考。     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR THE OPTIMUM OPERATION OF A MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: The main objective of this paper is to present a stockastic dynamic programming model useful in determining the optimal operating policy of a single multipurpose surface reservoir. It is the unreliability of forecasting the amount of future streamflow which makes the problem of a reservoir operation a stochastic process. In this paper the stochastic nature of the streamflow is taken into account by considering the correlation between the streamflows of each pair of consecutive time intervals. This interdependence is used to calculate the probability of transition from a given state and stage to its succeeding ones. A dynamic programming model with a physical equation and a stochastic recursive equation is developed to find the optimum operational policy. For illustrative purposes, the model is applied to a real surface water reservoir system.     

Human behavior incorporation into ecological computer simulations

The responses of ecological computer simulations are significantly changed by the inclusion of human behavior patterns. Two computer simulations illustrate this principle for internal and external decision making. The Northwest Educational Trawler Simulation (NETS) models the interaction between fish populations, fishing effort, markets, and a fishing community. This simulation includes an internal decision making submodel for changing fishing effort based on observed behaviors of fishermen. NOGERO, a simulation of a mythical coastal fishing culture, uses external decision making where simulation users act as stewards. The patterns of model response vary depending on the attitudes and goals of decision makers. This shows how human behavior interacts with ecosystem dynamics to produce a variety of results.     

Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

Conflict on the Coast: Using Geographic Information Systems to Map Potential Environmental Disputes in Matagorda Bay,Texas

The sustainable management of coastal natural resources inevitably involves identifying stakeholder conflicts and developing planning processes that prevent these conflicts from becoming intractable disputes. This study links environmental conflict to specific areas within a large ecological system. Specifically, we use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map potentially competing stakeholder values associated with establishing protected areas in Matagorda Bay, Texas. By overlaying multiple values associated with a range of stakeholders across space, we are able to identify hotspots of potential conflict as well as areas of opportunity for maximizing joint gains. Mapping stakeholder conflict is an approach to proactively locate potential controversy in response to a specific environmental management proposal and guide decision makers in crafting planning processes that mitigate the possibility of intractable disputes and facilitate the implementation of sustainable coastal policies. Results indicate that under different management scenarios, protected area proposals will generate more conflict in specific areas. Most notably, regulated uses would produce the greatest degree of conflict on or near shore, particularly at the mouth of the Colorado River. Additionally, of all the management scenarios evaluated, the prohibition of coastal structural development would generate the overall highest level of conflict within the Bay. Based on the results, we discuss the policy implications for environmental managers and provide guidance for future research on location-based conflict management within the coastal margin.