Viability analysis of management frameworks for fisheries

The pressure on marine renewable resources has rapidly increased over past decades. The resulting scarcity has led to a variety of different control and surveillance instruments. Often they have not improved the current situation, mainly due to institutional failure and intrinsic uncertainties about the state of stocks. This contribution presents an assessment of different management schemes with respect to predefined constraints by utilizing viability theory. Our analysis is based on a bio-economic model which is examined as a dynamic control system in continuous time. Feasible development paths are discussed in detail. It is shown that participatory management may lead to serious problems if a purely resource-based management strategy is employed. The analysis suggests that a less risky management strategy can be implemented if limited data are available.     

环境产业金融支持的框架构建分析

现阶段我国环境产业面临严峻的资本形成不足、发展资金短缺的困境，对产业发展形成严重制约。环境产业金融支持理应成为推进我国环境产业和经济可持续发展的战略性机制和基本途径。文章从环境产业资本形成、投资效率，金融运行三个角度进行了分析，梳理了环境产业发展进程中金融支持的内生逻辑，为环境产业金融支持的框架构建提供了理论依据。     

On the Design of Computer-Based Models for Integrated Environmental Science

The current research agenda in environmental science is dominated by calls to integrate science and policy to better understand and manage links between social (human) and natural (nonhuman) processes. Freshwater resource management is one area where such calls can be heard. Designing computer-based models for integrated environmental science poses special challenges to the research community. At present it is not clear whether such tools, or their outputs, receive much practical policy or planning application. It is argued that this is a result of (1) a lack of appreciation within the research modeling community of the characteristics of different decision-making processes including policy, planning, and (2) participation, (3) a lack of appreciation of the characteristics of different decision-making contexts, (4) the technical difficulties in implementing the necessary support tool functionality, and (5) the socio-technical demands of designing tools to be of practical use. This article presents a critical synthesis of ideas from each of these areas and interprets them in terms of design requirements for computer-based models being developed to provide scientific information support for policy and planning. Illustrative examples are given from the field of freshwater resources management. Although computer-based diagramming and modeling tools can facilitate processes of dialogue, they lack adequate simulation capabilities. Component-based models and modeling frameworks provide such functionality and may be suited to supporting problematic or messy decision contexts. However, significant technical (implementation) and socio-technical (use) challenges need to be addressed before such ambition can be realized.     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.     

道路交通安全知识提取方法及其递进式模型的研究

道路交通数据资源日益膨胀和复杂化 ,已经远远超出了人脑的记忆和分析能力。面对道路交通的海量数据 ,传统运用的DBMS和OLTP技术 ,已无法发现隐藏在数据背后的关系、规则和发展趋势等新的内容、知识和信息。因此 ,建立基于DMKD的智能道路交通安全决策支持系统是相关部门急需解决的重大课题。笔者重点介绍了数据挖掘、知识发现的概念 ,提出了基于DW +OLAP +DMKD的道路交通安全决策支持系统 ,通过道路交通系统的要素分析 ,介绍了一种面向属性的粗糙集方法提取规则 ,并阐述了一种递进式规则评价提炼过程。     

安全管理信息系统发展探讨

阐述了安全管理信息系统中安全，管理，信息，系统之间的密切关系。以构建1个有效管理安全信息为目标，从安全信息的界定，安全信息的分类。安全信息的管理绩效等方面进行了分析。对安全管理信息系统的产生背景，目的意义。构建步骤进行了较详细的探讨，为开发基于Internet企业安全信息共享和安全生产管理决策支持系统奠定了基础。     

锚杆支护控制底臌

在对煤巷底臌机理进行研究的基础上 ,采用锚杆支护系统设计方法 ,提出了利用锚杆支护控制煤巷底臌的理论和一套科学有效的技术措施。试验表明 ,该项技术工艺简单 ,先进合理且安全可靠性高 ,是控制煤巷底臌的有效途径。     

高档普采工作面端面顶板的有效支护

端面顶板是高档普采工作面顶板管理的重点，分析了п型钢梁支护法的不足，提出了一种新的支护方法，通过应用取得了良好效果。     

基于Visual Basic.NET的油气事故应急资源需求预测支持决策系统

针对油气事故后应急资源需求预测困难的问题,在对油气事故特性及应急资源需求类型分析的基础上,构建了基于案例推理(CBR)的油气事故应急资源需求预测模型,并使用Visual Basic.NET及SQL Server数据库开发了油气事故应急资源需求预测支持决策系统。将该系统应用于实际油气事故案例进行验证,结果表明系统中应急资源需求预测模型科学可靠,系统对油气事故应急资源需求预测结果与其实际用量基本吻合。该系统可为油气事故后快速有效开展应急救援活动提供相应的理论依据。     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.