基于pso-SVM的废水厌氧处理过程软测量模型

由于厌氧消化过程的复杂性和厌氧菌的敏感性,保持厌氧消化体系的稳定和高效性是比较困难的.本文在实验室采用IC反应器构建了一套厌氧废水处理系统处理人工合成废水,基于支持向量机(SVM)提出了一种预测废水厌氧处理系统出水挥发性脂肪酸(VFA)浓度和COD去除率的软测量模型.为了提高模型的精确性和鲁棒性,加入pso算法(粒子群算法)优化SVM模型,并引入了分类策略对元数据集进行有效分类.仿真结果表明,基于pso-SVM模型的软测量模型对厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA浓度和COD去除率具有较好的预测能力,模型预测系统COD去除率及出水总VFA浓度测试样本数据相关系数分别为65.86%、85.25%;加入分类策略后,元数据集分成两类,模型预测系统COD去除率测试样本数据相关系数分别为92.34%、83.41%;模型预测系统出水总VFA浓度测试样本数据相关系数分别为99.14%、99.59%,系统预测精度明显提高.引入分类策略对元数据集进行有效分类,基于pso-SVM的软测量模型可为监控、优化和理解厌氧消化过程提供指导.     

基于系统工程的大型舰船综合保障顶层策划技术探讨

运用系统工程理论与方法,结合大型舰船型号研制程序,系统地规划了大型舰船全寿命期综合保障顶层策划的主要工作内容和工作程序,包括建立综合保障工作体系并运行、制订综合保障工作计划、总体综合技术分析、保障性设计准则制定、保障系统设计等14个管理与技术方面内容,该策划具有指导性、可操作性和实用性,它可在大型舰船研制生产和使用过程中的综合保障工作的有效深入开展中发挥重要指导作用,从而进一步优化大型舰船总体综合作战效能。     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

面向新型航空装备系统的安全保障模式研究

四代机和大型运输机作为新型的航空装备,因其具有更为先进的技术性能,导致服役风险的增大。为促进国内四代机装备部队后战斗力的迅速形成,提出了一种基于和谐交互机制的安全保障模式。通过建立系统安全度模型,揭示了航空装备系统本质安全化的规律,即注重系统组元本质安全化的同时,强调系统组元内部及其与外界环境间的和谐交互作用。分析了系统安全保障模式中的人的本质安全化和环境的本质安全化,阐述了三类本质安全人的职责和相互关系;借用辐射理念,建立了系统安全辐射模型,提出安全辐射是扩大安全效益的有效手段;对航空装备系统本质安全化中的总效用和边际效用进行了数学描述,认为系统组元达到有机耦合是安全效用最大化的唯一途径,所述观点为新型航空装备的安全服役有一定指导意义。     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

生态保护学的建设与发展

通过简要回顾生态保护工作的发展历程,将生态保护学划分为自然保护学和生态保护学两个阶段。从研究对象及性质、内容与分支、学科基础、学科体系,论述了《环境保护学》的建设和发展,并指明了生态保护学的地位、作用及发展趋势。     

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.     

肾移植患者社会支持对其心理健康影响的研究进展

综述了影响肾移植患者心理健康的原因以及社会支持与心理健康的相关性,并探讨通过社会支持提高肾移植患者心理健康水平的途径.从而提示护理工作者在工作中应尽可能调动肾移植患者本人、家庭成员及社会的主观能动性,以提高肾移植患者的心理健康水平.     

Effects of Ergorest® Arm Supports on Muscle Strain and Wrist Positions During the Use of the Mouse and Keyboard in Work With Visual Display Units: A Work Site Intervention

The effects of Ergorest^® arm supports on wrist angles and musculoskeletal strain in the neck-shoulder-arm region and electrical activity in the shoulder and arm muscles were studied during typing or the use of the mouse in work with a visual display unit (VDU). Twenty-one women were randomized into 3 groups (1 arm support, 2 arm supports, and control). Measurements were carried out before and after the 6-week intervention. The wrist extension of the mouse hand, the muscle activity of the trapezius muscle, and the subjective discomfort ratings indicated that 2 arm supports were better than 1 in work with a mouse. The Ergorest^® arm support alleviates muscle and joint strain in VDU work when used for both arms.     

负载型钙钛矿催化剂对VOCs的催化燃烧性能研究

以γ-Al2O3为载体,采用等体积浸渍法制备负载型钙钛矿La0.8Ce0.2 Mn0.8 Co0.2 O3/γ-Al2O3催化剂,详细考察了温度、空速、甲苯浓度、水蒸汽等因素对催化剂催化燃烧VOCs(甲苯)性能的影响.结果表明,甲苯的转化率随反应温度的提高而上升;空速越低、水蒸汽含量越少,同一反应温度下甲苯的转化率越高;随甲苯浓度的增大,处理效果表现出先略有提高后降低的趋势;该催化剂随反应时间的增加始终保持了较高的甲苯去除率,稳定性良好.