Safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank using fault tree analysis and risk matrix analysis

The work presented in this paper used a quantitative analysis of relevant risks through the development of fault tree analysis and risk analysis methods to aid real time risk prediction and safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank. Criticality of risk elements and their attributes can be used with real time data to predict potential failures likely to occur. As an example, a risk matrix was used to rank risk of events that could lead to a leak in a storage tank and to make decisions on risks to be allowed based on past statistical data. An intelligent system that recognizes increasing level(s) and draws awareness to the possibility of additional increase before unsafe levels are attained was used to analyse and make critical decisions. After a visual depiction of relationships between hazards and controls had been actualized, dynamic risk modelling was used to quantify the effect controls can potentially have on hazards by applying historical and real-time data into a probabilistic model. The output of a dynamic risk model is near real-time quantitative predictions of risk likelihood. Results from the risk matrix analysis method mixed with RTD and FTA were analyzed, evaluated, and compared.     

社会支持对智能化矿井矿工违章行为的影响——缓解职业倦怠和心智游移的方法研究*

为明晰智能化矿井矿工的职业倦怠和心智游移水平以及社会支持、职业倦怠和心智游移对矿工违章行为的作用机理,以366名普通矿井矿工和379名智能化矿井矿工为研究对象进行问卷调查,运用AMOS7.0建立社会支持、职业倦怠与心智游移和矿工违章行为之间的结构方程模型（SEM）。结果表明:智能化矿井矿工比普通矿井矿工的职业倦怠水平和心智游移水平高;社会支持和矿工违章行为显著负相关;社会支持不仅可以直接影响矿工违章行为,还可以通过职业倦怠的独立中介作用以及职业倦怠与心智游移的链式中介作用2条路径间接影响矿工违章行为;有效提高矿工的社会支持可以缓解其职业倦怠水平,进而降低心智游移出现频率,最终减少矿工违章行为的发生。研究结果可为智能化矿井的安全生产管理提供科学依据。     

库岸涉水滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价

为合理评价库岸涉水滑坡危险性,基于层次分析法与模糊理论,构建滑坡危险性现状评价模型,并利用优化支持向量机构建滑坡变形预测模型,通过对比分析实现滑坡危险性综合判断。结果表明:大柿树滑坡危险性现状为69.78分,风险等级为Ⅲ级,属高度危险;通过危险性预测评价,滑坡变形呈持续增加趋势,将趋于不利方向发展;综合滑坡危险性现状分析与预测评价结果可知,滑坡危险性相对较大。研究结果可为滑坡灾害防治提供一定理论依据。     

A cluster-based decision support system for estimating earthquake damage and casualties

This paper describes a Decision Support System for Disaster Management (DSS-DM) to aid operational and strategic planning and policy-making for disaster mitigation and preparedness in a less-developed infrastructural context. Such contexts require a more flexible and robust system for fast prediction of damage and losses. The proposed system is specifically designed for earthquake scenarios, estimating the extent of human losses and injuries, as well as the need for temporary shelters. The DSS-DM uses a scenario approach to calculate the aforementioned parameters at the district and sub-district level at different earthquake intensities. The following system modules have been created: clusters (buildings) with respect to use; buildings with respect to construction typology; and estimations of damage to clusters, human losses and injuries, and the need for shelters. The paper not only examines the components of the DSS-DM, but also looks at its application in Besiktas municipality in the city of Istanbul, Turkey.     

大型地下方厅多导洞施工力学效应分析

针对北京城铁 13号线东直门站地下方厅开挖跨度大、覆盖层薄、地质条件极差的施工难题 ,笔者采用三维有限元数值模型 ,模拟开挖支护施工流程 ,考虑到围岩介质的复杂特性 ,施工作业方式 ,包括分布开挖工序 ,支护结构形式和施作时机 ,以及开挖面推进过程中的空间效应 ;按形变压力理论 ,选用“连续体”计算模型 ,采用增量变弹性法和增量叠代的混合法进行计算分析 ,对多导洞开挖支护施工方案进行了计算分析 ;基本掌握了在覆土厚度小的情况下开挖大跨平顶直墙方厅时 ,周围土体的应力分布特征和变形特性 ,对于优化施工方案、修改支护参数、采取局部加固措施起到了重要作用。实践表明采用多导洞施工方案是科学合理的 ,有利地保证了周边环境和施工安全。     

The effect of change in supervisor support and job control on change in vigor: Differential relationships for immigrant and native employees in Israel

Building on the premises of the conservation of resources theory, the aim of this study was to investigate long‐term effects of job resources on vigor among native and immigrant employees in Israel. More specifically, we investigated the effects of baseline and change in job control and supervisor support on change in vigor levels, as well as the degree to which these effects differ among educated native and immigrant employees in Israel. We surveyed 235 white‐collar Eastern European and Russian immigrants and 235 white‐collar native Israelis matched on occupational and demographic characteristics at two points of measurement with a 30‐month time lag. Latent change score modeling revealed that among both immigrants and natives, change in job control was related to change in vigor. Multiple group analyses further revealed that among immigrant employees only, baseline levels of supervisor support were associated with change in vigor. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the utilization of resources as a means of acquiring new resources may be influenced by immigrant background. Managerial implications are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强膨胀软岩巷道锚网喷架联合支护技术研究

强膨胀软岩巷道的支护问题是西部地区矿井建设中普遍遇到的难题。为解决强膨胀软岩遇水泥化、崩解等给巷道掘进、支护等工程带来的困难,以强膨胀软岩巷道支护工程为研究对象,通过理论分析和现场调研,研究强膨胀软岩巷道变形机理;利用有限元分析软件MIDAS/GTS建立强膨胀软岩巷道数值仿真模型,分析了锚网喷架联合支护时巷道塑性区范围、表面位移和钢支架的受力特征。进行现场测试,获得了巷道围岩变形和锚杆受力变化规律。结果表明,采用钢支架与锚网喷构成联合支护体系可有效提高支护结构整体刚度,提升围岩的自稳能力和自承能力。     

我国农业减灾风险投资决策的经济学判据

探讨了在我国政策条件下,农业减灾投入、增产投入、农民收入与灾害风险之间的关系。在生产者追求利润最大化目标的经济学假设下,通过对粮食生产过程的定性、定量分析,分别推导了不同投资主体和同一投资主体下农业减灾与增产投资利益最大化的条件,并讨论了农业投资者可能的决策选择,从经济学的角度为研究农业减灾增产的风险投资提供了一种较理想的理论模型。     

Vocal alliances in Chacma baboons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Papio hamadryas ursinus</Emphasis>)

Theory predicts that females in species with matrilineal dominance hierarchies should use nepotistic support systems to maintain their family’s rank. Female Old World monkeys, however, form alliances against other females at surprisingly low rates. Nonetheless, in many species, females utter threat vocalizations when observing others’ disputes, suggesting that these vocalizations may function as ‘vocal alliances’. We describe a playback experiment testing the efficacy of vocal alliances in free-ranging female baboons. Subjects were played the same female’s threat-grunts under three separate conditions: after being threatened by the signaller’s close relative to mimic kin support, after being threatened by a female maternally unrelated to the signaller to mimic non-kin support, and after a friendly interaction with the signaller’s close relative as a control. Subjects responded more strongly to the playback and avoided the signaller and her matrilineal relatives for a longer period of time in kin support trials than in either non-kin support or no aggression trials. In contrast, there was no difference in subjects’ behaviour between non-kin support and no aggression trials. These results corroborate observational data showing that vocal support occurs at a higher rate than physical support in female baboons, and that kin are more likely to provide vocal support than non-kin. We conclude that vocal support plays a similar role as physical support in the alliances of female baboons.