Values,rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context

Responding to global change represents an unprecedented challenge for society. Decision makers tend to address this challenge by framing adaptation as a decision problem, whereby the responses to impacts of change are addressed within existing decision processes centred on defining the decision problem and selecting options. However, this ‘decision-making perspective’ is constrained by societal values and principles, regulations and norms and the state of knowledge. It is therefore unsuitable for addressing complex, contested, cross-scale problems. In this paper we argue that simply broadening the decision-making perspective to account for institutions and values is not enough. We contend the decision-making perspective needs to be connected with a broader ‘decision-context perspective’ that focuses on how the societal system of decision processes affects the manner in which a particular problem is addressed. We describe the decision context as an interconnected system of values, rules and knowledge (vrk). The interaction of systems of vrk both creates and limits the set of practical, permissible decisions; the types of values, rules and knowledge that influence the decision and the capacity for change and transformation in the decision context. We developed a framework to analyse the interactions between values, rules and knowledge and their influence on decision making and decision contexts of adaptation initiatives, and applied it retrospectively to three projects on adaptation to sea-level rise. Our analysis revealed: (1) specific examples of how interactions between vrk systems constrained existing framings of decision making and the development of options for coastal adaptation; (2) limitations in the adaptive management strategies that underpinned the projects and (3) how the linked systems of vrk can allow adaptation practitioners to structure adaptation as a process of co-evolutionary change that enables a broader set of social issues and change processes to be considered. Adaptation projects that focus on the decision context represent a pragmatic alternative to existing decision-focused adaptation. By using the vrk model to diagnose constraints in decision processes, we show how the reframing of adaptation initiatives can reveal new approaches to developing adaptation responses to complex global change problems.     

Oxidation of diesel soot on binary oxide CuCr(Co)-based monoliths

Binary oxide systems (CuCr₂O₄, CuCo₂O₄), deposited onto cordierite monoliths of honeycomb structure with a second support (finely dispersed Al₂O₃), were prepared as filters for catalytic combustion of diesel soot using internal combustion engine's gas exhausts (O₂, NO_x, H₂O, CO₂) and O₃ as oxidizing agents. It is shown that the second support increases soot capacity of aforementioned filters, and causes dispersion of the particles of spinel phases as active components enhancing thereby catalyst activity and selectivity of soot combustion to CO₂. Oxidants used can be arranged with reference to decreasing their activity in a following series: O₃ ? NO₂ > H₂O > NO > O₂ > CO₂. Ozone proved to be the most efficient oxidizing agent: the diesel soot combustion by O₃ occurs intensively (in the presence of copper chromite based catalyst) even at closing to ambient temperatures. Results obtained give a basis for the conclusion that using a catalytic coating on soot filters in the form of aforementioned binary oxide systems and ozone as the initiator of the oxidation processes is a promising approach in solving the problem of comprehensive purification of automotive exhaust gases at relatively low temperatures, known as the “cold start” problem.     

Oxidation of diesel soot on binary oxide CuCr(Co)-based monoliths

Binary oxide systems(Cu Cr2O4, Cu Co2O4), deposited onto cordierite monoliths of honeycomb structure with a second support(finely dispersed Al2O3), were prepared as filters for catalytic combustion of diesel soot using internal combustion engine’s gas exhausts(O2, NOx, H2 O, CO2) and O3 as oxidizing agents. It is shown that the second support increases soot capacity of aforementioned filters, and causes dispersion of the particles of spinel phases as active components enhancing thereby catalyst activity and selectivity of soot combustion to CO2. Oxidants used can be arranged with reference to decreasing their activity in a following series: O3 NO2> H2 O > NO > O2> CO2. Ozone proved to be the most efficient oxidizing agent: the diesel soot combustion by O3 occurs intensively(in the presence of copper chromite based catalyst) even at closing to ambient temperatures.Results obtained give a basis for the conclusion that using a catalytic coating on soot filters in the form of aforementioned binary oxide systems and ozone as the initiator of the oxidation processes is a promising approach in solving the problem of comprehensive purification of automotive exhaust gases at relatively low temperatures, known as the "cold start" problem.     

基于PCA-LSSVM的厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA在线预测模型

采用IC厌氧废水处理系统处理人工合成废水,并利用PCA-LSSVM模型对系统出水挥发性脂肪酸(VFA)进行预测.首先利用主成分分析法(PCA)分析影响厌氧废水出水VFA浓度的多个变量的相关性并降低输入变量维数,然后用网格搜索结合10倍交叉验证优化LSSVM模型参数sig2和gam,最后利用建立的模型对实验数据进行仿真预测.仿真结果表明,稳态LSSVM模型对稳态条件下厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA具有很好的仿真预测能力,相对误差在4.72%以内,平均相对百分比误差(MAPE)为1.61%,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.08,相关系数达0.9996;稳态干扰LSSVM模型对厌氧废水处理系统出水VFA的仿真预测精度有所降低但仍然具有较好的预测能力,平均相对百分比误差(MAPE)为15.83%,均方根误差(RMSE)为15.45,相关系数为0.9984,该方法可为厌氧出水VFA在线预测和厌氧废水处理系统的优化控制提供指导.     

甲烷催化还原NOx中Co基/分子筛催化剂的助剂和载体优化

采用共浸渍法制备了系列Co基/分子筛催化剂,在固定床催化反应器中考察了不同催化剂在甲烷催化还原NO_x中的催化行为,优化了Co基/分子筛催化剂的助剂和载体,并通过催化表征手段阐明了其构效关系.结果表明,Fe和SAPO-34分别作为优化助剂和载体制备得到的Co-Fe/SAPO-34催化剂具有最高的催化活性,在450℃时,NO_x的最大转化率可以达到52.7%.CO_2对Co-Fe/分子筛催化剂活性无明显抑制作用,H_2O对催化剂的活性抑制是可逆的,SO_2对催化剂活性抑制作用明显.Co-Fe/SAPO-34催化剂表面钴物种以CoO和Co(OH)_2为主,Co-Fe/ZSM-5催化剂表面钴物种则以Co_3O_4和Co(OH)_2为主,Co-Fe/Beta催化剂则可能以CoO、Co Al2O_4和Co_3O_4为主.各Co-Fe/分子筛催化剂表面Fe~(2+)/Fe~(3+)含量比依次为Co-Fe/ZSM-5(3.98)Co-Fe/SAPO-34(0.52)Co-Fe/Beta(0.43).活性组分钴物种的形态和合适的Fe~(2+)/Fe~(3+)含量比对Co-Fe/分子筛催化剂上甲烷催化还原NO_x至关重要.Co-Fe/分子筛催化剂上CH_4-SCR反应机制为:NO在Br?nsted酸位上吸附氧化成NO~+,同时CH_4在Br?nsted酸位上吸附活化成—C=O和—COO等活性物种,生成的NO~+在Co2+和Fe~(3+)等催化活性位上转化成硝酸盐等中间产物,中间产物硝酸盐与活化物种(—C=O和—COO)反应生成N_2和CO_2.     

Fuzzy modelling to identify key drivers of ecological water quality to support decision and policy making

Water quality modelling is an effective tool to investigate, describe and predict the ecological state of an aquatic ecosystem. Various environmental variables may simultaneously affect water quality. Appropriate selection of a limited number of key-variables facilitates cost-effective management of water resources. This paper aims to determine (and analyse the effect of) the major environmental variables predicting ecological water quality through the application of fuzzy models. In this study, a fuzzy logic methodology, previously applied to predict species distributions, was extended to model environmental effects on a whole community. In a second step, the developed models were applied in a more general water management context to support decision and policy making. A hill-climbing optimisation algorithm was applied to relate ecological water quality and environmental variables to the community indicator. The optimal model was selected based on the predictive performance (Cohen’s Kappa), ecological relevance and model’s interpretability. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed as an extra element to analyse and evaluate the optimal model. The optimal model included the variables land use, chlorophyll and flow velocity. The variable selection method and sensitivity analysis indicated that land use influences ecological water quality the most and that it affects the effect of other variables on water quality to a high extent. The model outcome can support spatial planning related to land use in river basins and policy making related to flows and water quality standards. Fuzzy models are transparent to a wide range of users and therefore may stimulate communication between modellers, river managers, policy makers and stakeholders.     

A review on political factors influencing public support for urban environmental policy

Environmental quality is important to urban residents’ physical, social and psychological well-being. Governments have been formulating and implementing policies to mitigate environmental deterioration in cities. To effectively implement policies and achieve policy goals, gaining sufficient public support is an essential prerequisite; the policies would be in ruins and the government may also suffer from setbacks in other policy areas in the absence of public support. Therefore, to understand what contributes to public support is a crucial task for policymakers. Though current literature on socio-demographic and attitudinal/psychological factors provides fruitful accounts for policy support, a comprehensive examination of political determinants has yet to be established. In response to this, this review paper explores political factors that influence level of policy support based on existing literature. An integrated framework is proposed to explain policy support for urban environmental policy. This paper also discusses the possible directions of future research.     

基于支持向量机的洪水灾情综合评价模型

在阐述支持向量机的基本原理、二值分类和多值分类技术及各自特性的基础上，结合洪水灾情综合评价中受自然环境、社会经济等诸多因素的影响且实测样本资料较少的特点，以及目前已有评价模型不能或难以解决的小样本、“过学习”、局部最小等实际难题，提出了基于支持向量机的洪水灾情综合评价模型，并应用实例进行了验证。研究结果表明，此模型和传统的灾情评估法、人工神经网络评价模型一样有效合理，并且模型运算时间比人工神经网络模型要短。因此，不仅为洪水灾情综合评估提供了一种新的模型，而且由于支持向量机遵循统计学习理论中结构风险最小化的原理，具有解决有限样本、非线性及高维识别中的优势，必将比其他传统的评价模型得到更广泛的应用和发展。〖     

A model for supply chains environmental performance analysis and decision making

The need to include environmental criteria in the analysis of supply chains is increasingly recognized as a result both of limitations that are posed by legislation and regulations as well as of various motivations that a company may have. A decision model is proposed in this paper based on environmental performance indicators, which may support decision making in the case of supply chains in the presence of environmental considerations. The model uses a set of principles applicable to supply chains design and operation available from previous research work.     

QUICKScan as a quick and participatory methodology for problem identification and scoping in policy processes

Policy making is required in cases in which a public good needs to be either maintained or created, and private or civil initiatives cannot deal alone with this. Policy making thus starts with a phase of problem identification and determining whether there is a problem that needs to be dealt with. Rapidly evolving contexts exert influence on policy makers who have to take decisions much faster and more accurately than in the past, also facing greater complexity. There is a need for a method that lowers the lead time of the exploratory phase of the policy cycle. At the same time the method should create a joint understanding of the most important interactions. This paper proposes QUICKScan, a method, process and spatially explicit tool, to jointly scope policy problems in a participatory setting, investigate the most important interactions and feedbacks and assesses the state of knowledge and data of relevance to the problem. QUICKScan uses strongly moderated participatory workshops bringing together a wide range of stakeholders relevant to the policy issue. These moderated workshops jointly build an expert system in a spatially explicit tool using functionality of bayesian belief networks, python programming, simple map algebra and knowledge matrices, with a strong focus on visualization of results. QUICKScan has been applied in 70 different applications in a range of different policy contexts, stakeholders and physical locations. Through these applications participants were able to internalize the knowledge that was usually handed to them in briefs and reports, to develop a joint understanding of the main interactions and their link to impacts and to develop a problem statement and solution space in a reduced lead time. Ultimately, QUICKScan demonstrates another role of science, not solely as a knowledge production, but also facilitating the knowledge consumption.