An application of Markov Decision Programming to ecologico-cybernetics—A decision method applied to the antifrost of winter wheat

Modern ecologico-cybernetic principle is of importance to decreasing damages in relation to agricultural productions. As an illustration of this, the authors studied some of the questions about the optimal policy of choosing actions for the antifrost measures of winter wheat by means of the finite-stage model of Markov Decision Programming (MDP). The related data came from the investigation results of the investigated region in the northeastern part of Henan, China. First, the authors give the states, ecologico-cybernetic action measures, transition probabilities and reward values in relation to these antifrost action measures of winter wheat crop. Second, the authors describe the principles and computational procedures of the ecologico-cybernetic decision-makings based on the finite-stage model of MDP. Third, a simple table applicable to the decision-making practice is given. Finally, we evaluate the results of this study, point out their shortcomings and suggest that this method is applicable to the other fields in relation to decreasing damage ecologico-cybernetics.     

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Implemented in 1994, the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan was designed to restore and maintain ecological processes for aquatic and riparian area conservation on federal lands in the western portion of the Pacific Northwest. We used decision support models to quantitatively evaluate changes in the condition of selected watersheds. In the approximately 10 years since strategy implementation, watershed condition scores changed modestly, but conditions improved in 64% of 250 sampled watersheds, declined in 28%, and remained relatively the same in 7%. Watersheds that had the largest declines included some where wildfires burned 30–60% of their area. The overall statistical distribution of the condition scores did not change significantly, however. Much of the increase in watershed condition was related to improved riparian conditions. The number of large trees (>51 cm diameter at breast height) increased 2–4%, and there were substantial reductions in tree harvest and other disturbances along streams. Whether such changes will translate into longer-term improvements in aquatic ecosystems across broader landscapes remains to be seen.     

Integrated resource management systems: Coupling expert systems with data-base management and geographic information systems

Decision making in natural resource management is becoming increasingly information-intensive because of the rising public concerns about resource conservation and environmental quality. The volume of information that must be analyzed and the complexity of the decision-making process demands that computerized systems be developed to provide decision support services. An integrated systems approach that couples data-base management, geographic information systems, and expert systems is needed. We refer to such an approach as integrated resource management automation (IRMA) and describe a prototype system that is currently being tested in the Nicolet National Forest. This type of information system is likely to play an increasingly important role in the management of natural resources in the future.     

农业生态经济系统的规划思路

本文旨在依据生态学的“循环再生整体协调”,经济学的“平衡原理”,系统科学的“整体优化原则”等的一致性内核,围绕人类经济活动与自然生态之间相互发展的关系,经过对农业中出现的一系列严重问题的分析,提出在我国建立以现代科技支撑的农业生态经济系统的规划理论思路,它与现有的规划理论方法相比,具有明显的可操作性和适用性。     

核级管道非标支架的力学分析与优化设计

目的基于核级管道支架的力学分析,针对性地提出非标支架优化设计方案。方法核电站中管道支架为确保管道系统的安全运行发挥着至关重要的作用。针对工况复杂、要求严苛、承载恶劣的管道支架,为满足其支撑与抗震功能,通常采用非标设计。深入研究非标支架的力学计算和评定方法。通过有限元计算评定结果,发现支架设计中不满足规范要求项,提出非标支架优化设计方案。结果首先针对支架整体结构刚度和稳定性不足,采取增加斜支撑与增强约束等结构性修改措施,进而确定增强支撑钢梁强度的优化方案,解决应力超过规范许用限值问题,最后对于问题集中的管道连接区域,提出局部支撑构件重新设计方案。结论该优化方案可为核级管道非标支架设计提供借鉴和指导,以满足核电标准规范和设计要求。     

基于决策树支持向量机算法的船用设备故障诊断

目的 提高船用设备的智能化水平,增强船舶的安全性、可靠性,对船上设备进行状态监测,并基于监测数据对设备健康状况进行评估,对可能存在的故障工况进行识别.方法 通过采集机舱内的振动数据,对数据进行预处理、快速傅里叶变换,提取1/3倍频带特征,将倍频带谱信号作为特征向量,利用支持向量机算法进行模型训练及分类.对于船上多种工况及可能存在的多种故障类别,采用决策二叉树方法,提出一种快速、准确的状态监测及故障诊断策略.结果 在实验室工况下识别准确率接近100％.结论 该方法能够对船用设备进行状态监控、故障诊断、健康评估等提供支持,为设备检修、传感器布置等决策提供依据.     

Assessing sustainability in nature-inspired design

In the field of sustainable product development, a new perspective for approaching sustainability has been advocated, challenging designers and engineers to aim beyond ‘reducing unsustainability’. Several design strategies – including Biomimicry and Cradle to Cradle – have been suggested for developing truly sustainable, or ‘beneficial’, products. But do these strategies help in developing such products, and how to assess their ‘sustainability’? Based on a review of the objectives in nature-inspired design, we argue that assessing environmental sustainability is not straightforward. Whereas both Biomimicry and Cradle to Cradle build on the perspective of ‘achieving sustainability’, current life-cycle assessment-based tools are geared towards reducing current impacts. As a consequence, existing tools are insufficiently equipped for the purpose of the assessment: they do not cover some of the main results that nature-inspired design is set out to accomplish. To be able to include these results, we propose two new constituents to current life-cycle-based product assessment: assessing against conditions of sustainability and assessing ‘achievement’, the extent to which these conditions of sustainability have been achieved. Furthermore, the product context needs to be included for assessing beneficial impacts. This article discusses how these constituents can contribute to an assessment tool that enables designers and engineers to assess the development of environmentally sustainable solutions.     

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

Collaborative Modeling to Evaluate Water Management Scenarios in the Rio Grande Basin

This article describes the collaborative modeling process and the resulting water resources planning model developed to evaluate water management scenarios in the transboundary Rio Grande basin. The Rio Grande is a severely water stressed basin that faces numerous management challenges as it crosses numerous jurisdictional boundaries. A collaborative process was undertaken to identify and model water management scenarios to improve water supply for stakeholders, the environment, and international obligations of water delivery from Mexico to the United States. A transparent and open process of data collection, model building, and scenario development was completed by a project steering committee composed of university, nongovernmental, and governmental experts from both countries. The outcome of the process was a planning model described in this article, with data and operations that were agreed on by water planning officials in each country. Water management scenarios were created from stakeholder input and were modeled and evaluated for effectiveness with the planning model.     

基于差异进化支持向量机的坑外土体沉降预测

就用支持向量机(SVM)预测基坑外土体沉降而言,通过差异进化(DE)算法构造适合的决策函数十分重要。在确定坑外土体沉降函数的基本形式下,进行参数反演。后将得到的解析式作为SVM的决策函数,再进行核函数转换,从而使SVM的曲线拟合更加快速,预测更加准确。对大连地铁湾家车站基坑坑外土体的沉降数据的分析及预测的结果表明,使用SVM-DE算法在计算数据量、计算消耗时间和预测精度方面优于2种方法单独使用。