安全管理决策支持系统及其最新进展

安全管理是企业管理的重要组成部分,是实现安全生产的有力保证.决策支持系统是实现安全管理定性与定量分析有机结合的有效手段.该文结合安全管理,简要阐述了决策支持系统产生的背景、内容和发展趋势.介绍了作者在企业安全管理决策支持系统研制方面的主要结果和进一步工作的构想.     

Choice of stakeholder groups and members in multicriteria decision models

Simplistic economic objectives such as maximisation of producer profits are of little relevance in generating information to assist in the management of natural resources beyond the individual firm level. To provide data and information to support decision-making in natural resource management, it is necessary to take into account the views of various stakeholder groups and the multiple objectives of each group, through the use of some form of multicriteria analysis (MCA). Important decisions arise in the choice of stakeholder, since this will influence the management advice generated. Many groups and individuals can be affected by resource management decisions, but it would be impractical to attempt to identify the objectives and estimate their importance for each group. Also, questions arise concerning whether or not to include government agencies (which represent the broader community) and researchers as stakeholders. A further issue concerns choosing representative samples of stakeholder groups, from which to obtain preference data. Discussions with modellers and a reading of the literature would suggest that the choice of stakeholder groups and representatives is conducted haphazardly and is perhaps biased, and that a more systematic approach is needed. This article explores the above issues with reference to a number of multicriteria analyses, including local studies.     

Perceived Collective Efficacy and Trust in Government Influence Public Engagement with Climate Change-Related Water Conservation Policies

Water insecurity, induced or intensified due to climate change, has emerged as a key policy challenge in poor and developing countries such as India. Drawing on social cognitive theory, this paper examines the role of perceived collective efficacy—people's shared beliefs about their group's capabilities to accomplish collective tasks—and trust in government as factors influencing Indians' engagement with government water conservation policies. Using a national survey of Indians (N = 4031), we found that individuals with high levels of perceived collective efficacy and trust in government are more likely to support government water conservation policies. Moreover, for individuals with low trust in government, higher collective efficacy is associated with greater policy support. Perceived collective efficacy is also associated with activist behaviours, while distrust is not. Increasing collective efficacy beliefs, for example through mass media channels and targeted campaigns, could help increase citizens' engagement with climate change adaptation policies.     

Prediction of global solar radiation using support vector machines

This article utilizes Support Vector Machines (SVM) for predicting global solar radiation (GSR) for Sharurha, a city in the southwest of Saudi Arabia. The SVM model was trained using measured air temperature and relative humidity. Measured data of 1812 values for the period from 1998–2002 were obtained. The measurement data of 1600 were used for training the SVM, and the remaining 212 were used for comparison between the measured and predicted values of GSR. The GSR values were predicted using the following four combinations of data sets: (i) Daily mean air temperature and day of the year as inputs, and global solar radiation as output; (ii) daily maximum air temperature and day of the year as inputs, and GSR as output; (iii) daily mean air temperature and relative humidity and day of the year as inputs, and GSR as output; and (iv) daily mean air temperature, day of the year, relative humidity, and previous day’s GSR as inputs, and GSR as output. The mean square error was found to be 0.0027, 0.0023, 0.0021, and 7.65 × 10^?4 for case (i), (ii,), (iii), and (iv) respectively, while the corresponding absolute mean percentage errors were 5.64, 5.08, 4.48, and 2.8%. Obtained results show that the SVM method is capable of predicting GSR from measured values of temperature and relative humidity.     

基于物联网的农村污水监测系统设计研究

针对农村污水排放点多、面广、分散、量小等特点,提出了一种利用物联网技术进行农村污水排放情况进行实时监测的系统。通过在农村集中区域部署一定量的环境传感器节点,利用无线网络传输特性,将污水排放情况传输至监测中心。综合利用物联网感知层、网络层及应用层的相关技术,介绍了感知层传感器节点的监测原理,并提出了应用层监控软件的设计方案。该系统可以有效、实时地监测污水排放流量大小、污染程度等情况,对环境监测部门具有一定的决策支持作用。     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

Estimation of daily sunshine duration using support vector machines

Although sunshine duration (SD) is one of the most frequently measured meteorological parameters, there is a lack of measurements in some parts of the world. Hence, it should be estimated accurately for areas where no reliable measurement is possible. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of support vector machine (SVM) approach for estimating daily SD. For this purpose, three different kernels of SVM, such as linear, polynomial, and radial basis function (RBF), were used. Different combinations of five related meteorological parameters, namely cloud cover, maximum temperature (T_max), minimum temperature (T_min), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS), and one astronomic parameter, day length, were considered as the inputs of the models, and the output was obtained as daily SD. Simulated values of the models were compared with ground measured values, and concluded that the usage of the SVM-RBF estimator with combination of all input attributes produced the best results. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and mean absolute error were found to be 0.8435, 1.5105 h, and 1.0771 h, respectively, for the pooled four-year daily data set of 14 stations in Turkey. It was also deduced that accuracy increased as the number of attributes increased and the major contribution to this came from RH as compared with T_max, T_min, and WS. This study has shown that the SVM methodology can be a good alternative for conventional and artificial neural network methods for estimating daily SD.     

抢险救灾物资保障模拟训练系统分析与设计

计算机模拟训练是增强抢险救灾应急保障能力的重要手段,在联合仿真建模技术的基础上分析并设计了抢险救灾物资保障模拟训练系统。提出了系统功能需求,主要包括物资保障业务、分布交互式协同、模型管理与优化、数据管理、过程推演与保障流程控制等;分析了三层系统结构,基础平台层由指挥系统、导调控制系统、RTI等组成,资源层由模型库、知识库、数据库等组成,应用层则由生活、野营、医疗、工程、装备等五个模拟训练子系统组成;给出了基于联合仿真建模技术的仿真模型设计流程,并完成了基于HLA的分布式系统设计,构建了抢险救灾物资保障的四类联邦成员,设计了FOM与SOM模型,完成了Agent-DEVS联邦模型与RTI的接口。以上研究为开展抢险救灾应急保障模拟训练奠定了基础。