求木之长先固本 欲流之远须浚源——环境科技支撑为更好环境管理服务的思考

回顾了云南省40年的环境科技工作,分析了存在的不足,提出了为环境管理提供支撑的改进措施。     

A new approach to estimate nuclide ratios from measurements with activities close to background

Measurements of low-level radioactivity often give results of the order of the detection limit. For many applications, interest is not only in estimating activity concentrations of a single radioactive isotope, but focuses on multi-isotope analyses, which often enable inference on the source of the activity detected (e.g. from activity ratios). Obviously, such conclusions become questionable if the measurement merely gives a detection limit for a specific isotope. This is particularly relevant if the presence of an isotope, which shows a low signal only (e.g. due to a short half-life or a small transition probability), is crucial for gaining the information of interest.     

危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的研究与开发

在系统分析危险废物管理系统和环境信息系统发展现状与趋势的基础上,讨论了中国危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的设计原则并进行了系统分析与设计。研究采用将系统分化为子系统的设计方法,可以更方便的增加信息,增加功能,保证系统的可持续发展性。该区域决策支持系统的设计方法和结构框架对其他环境信息系统开发与设计具有借鉴意义。     

Assessing the role of learning devices and geovisualisation tools for collective action in natural resource management: Experiences from Vietnam

In northern Vietnam uplands the successive policy reforms that accompanied agricultural decollectivisation triggered very rapid changes in land use in the 1990s. From a centralized system of natural resource management, a multitude of individual strategies emerged which contributed to new production interactions among farming households, changes in landscape structures, and conflicting strategies among local stakeholders. Within this context of agrarian transition, learning devices can help local communities to collectively design their own course of action towards sustainable natural resource management. This paper presents a collaborative approach combining a number of participatory methods and geovisualisation tools (e.g., spatially explicit multi-agent models and role-playing games) with the shared goal to analyse and represent the interactions between: (i) decision-making processes by individual farmers based on the resource profiles of their farms; (ii) the institutions which regulate resource access and usage; and (iii) the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. This methodological pathway is illustrated by a case study in Bac Kan Province where it successfully led to a communication platform on natural resource management. In a context of rapid socioeconomic changes, learning devices and geovisualisation tools helped embed the participatory approach within a process of community development. The combination of different tools, each with its own advantages and constraints, proved highly relevant for supporting collective natural resource management.     

Web-based GIS for collaborative planning and public participation: an application to the strategic planning of wind farm sites

Spatial planning typically involves multiple stakeholders. To any specific planning problem, stakeholders often bring different levels of knowledge about the components of the problem and make assumptions, reflecting their individual experiences, that yield conflicting views about desirable planning outcomes. Consequently, stakeholders need to learn about the likely outcomes that result from their stated preferences; this learning can be supported through enhanced access to information, increased public participation in spatial decision-making and support for distributed collaboration amongst planners, stakeholders and the public. This paper presents a conceptual system framework for web-based GIS that supports public participation in collaborative planning. The framework combines an information area, a Multi-Criteria Spatial Decision Support System (MC-SDSS) and an argumentation map to support distributed and asynchronous collaboration in spatial planning. After analysing the novel aspects of this framework, the paper describes its implementation, as a proof of concept, in a system for Web-based Participatory Wind Energy Planning (WePWEP). Details are provided on the specific implementation of each of WePWEP's four tiers, including technical and structural aspects. Throughout the paper, particular emphasis is placed on the need to support user learning throughout the planning process.     

Lessons for PPGIS from the application of a decision-support tool in the Nova Forest Alliance of Nova Scotia, Canada

The effectiveness of a decision-support tool created to identify protected-area potential within the Nova Forest Alliance (NFA) of Nova Scotia, Canada is assessed from the perspective of a public participatory geographic information system (PPGIS) approach. The application sought to create an integrated GIS-based decision-support tool for community-focused communication and conservation assessment among NFA partners (including private woodland owners, government agencies, forest companies, and non-government organizations) and potential application within other model forests in Canada. The application illustrated that the GIS-based tool, once set up and populated with the necessary data, was able to generate effective visual alternatives to support decision making within the NFA community and elsewhere. However, from a PPGIS perspective, the application faced challenges that influenced the efficacy of its implementation: (1) limitations arose around data quality, use and sharing policies; (2) although opportunities for participation by the NFA partnership were initiated, these proved insufficient to achieve adequate engagement, buy in and support for the process and outcomes; and (3) the expert-grounded GIS-based tool requires a greater degree of expertise than may currently be present in the community. These challenges limit its ongoing use in the NFA and its potential utility in other model forests. For PPGIS-decision-support applications to be effective in the NFA and elsewhere, it is suggested that the following conditions be met: (1) implementation of geographically based data policies to allow for greater data accessibility, specifically with fewer bureaucratic and private sector barriers; (2) engagement of community partners in the initial project design, goal-setting and subsequent stages, even if this requires extensions to anticipated timelines; and (3) development of effective participatory technical systems that meet the needs of participants without being so complex as to constitute a barrier to their use.     

Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas

Commonly used methods of evaluating the degree of consistency of protected area ecosystems with social and ecological carrying capacities are likely to result in decision errors. This occurs because such methods do not account for imprecision and uncertainty in inferring the degree of ecosystem consistency from an observed ecosystem indicator. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive management approach to determine whether a protected area ecosystem is consistent with ecological and social carrying capacities and, if not, to identify management actions that are most likely to achieve consistency when there is uncertainty about the current degree of consistency and how alternative management actions are likely to influence that consistency. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example that uses an ecosystem indicator that reflects combinations of different levels of user satisfaction and conservation of threatened and endangered species. Application of the proposed fuzzy adaptive management approach requires a protected area manager to: (1) identify alternative management actions for achieving ecosystem consistency with social and ecological carrying capacities in each of several management zones in a protected area; (2) randomly assign alternative management actions to management zones; (3) define fuzzy sets for the ecosystem indicator and degree of ecosystem consistency, and fuzzy relations between the ecosystem indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency; (4) monitor the indicator in each management zone; (5) define fuzzy sets based on the observed indicator in each management zone; and (6) combine the fuzzy sets defined on the observed indicator and the fuzzy relations between the indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency to reach conclusions about the most likely degree of consistency for alternative management actions in each management zone. The fuzzy adaptive management approach proposed here is advantageous when the benefits of avoiding the decision errors inherent with crisp and stochastic decision rules outweigh the added cost of implementing the approach.     

Requisite Simplicities to Help Negotiate Complex Problems

Decision makers responsible for natural resource management often complain that science delivers fragmented information that is not useful at the scale of implementation. We offer a way of negotiating complex problems by putting forward a requisite simplicity. A requisite simplicity attempts to discard some detail, while retaining conceptual clarity and scientific rigor, and helps us move to a new position where we can benefit from new knowledge. We illustrate the above using three case studies: elephant densities and vegetation change in a national park, the use of rules of thumb to support decision making in agriculture, and the management of salt in irrigation. We identify potential requisite simplicities that can allow us to generate new understanding, lead to action and provide opportunities for structured learning.     

国外化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系发展概况(下)

概述了国外化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系发展现状,分析了我国化学品环境管理和技术支撑体系与国外的差距,针对国内化学品环境管理对科技的需求,提出了需优先开展的科学研究领域和课题建议.     

基于动态信任网络的突发事件模型库系统的研究

根据突发事件应急决策的需求,本文结合模型网络法和基于信任筛选器的模型组合方法,提出了动态信任网络的模型组合方法,实现了根据不同的突发事件和不同环境选择适合的模型进行模型组合。在运用动态信任网络模型组合方法的基础上,本文应用Agent技术提出了一种智能化较高的突发事件模型库,不仅增强了模型库的适应性和模型库的自学习功能,而且还可以对耦合灾害和复杂事件链的应急处置提供良好的模型决策支持功能。