Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

蒙脱土原位生长MoS2复合材料光催化降解罗丹明B的机理研究

通过在Na⁺-MMT表面生长MoS₂来提高窄带隙半导体光生电子分离速率及稳定性.利用阳离子填充法及水热法成功制备了复合光催化剂Na⁺-MMT/MoS₂,并通过FT-IR、SEM、TEM、Raman、XRD、TG、XPS、UV-DRS和ESR等表征进一步证明了材料的成功负载及光、电化学性能. 同时,以有机染料罗丹明B为待降解染料来评价光催化剂的催化性能,发现其在80 min可有效降解罗丹明B,降解率达96%.经过5次循环使用后,Na⁺-MMT/MoS₂复合光催化剂仍具有较好的光催化性能.因此,利用MMT的表面电负性及稳定的片层结构负载MoS₂,可形成光生电子迁移通道进一步提高电荷迁移速率及光催化剂的稳定性.本研究可为黏土材料调控窄带隙半导体制备环境友好型光催化剂提供新思路.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part II: Hybrid life cycle assessment of Swiss glass-packaging disposal

In policy support of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, life cycle assessment (LCA) can serve to compare the environmental or economic impacts of two or more options for waste processing. The scope of waste management LCAs generally focuses less attention on future developments, e.g., where will recycling take place, and more on the environmental performance of prototypes, e.g., the incineration of all waste compared to recycling. To provide more robust support for Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal, scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging are assessed from a life cycle perspective. The scenarios consist in schemes for the disposal of the total amount of Swiss waste glass-packaging, i.e., different combinations of recycling and downcycling in Switzerland or abroad developed in Part I, Meylan et al. (2013). In this article (Part II), the disposal schemes are assessed with respect to eco-efficiency, an indicator that combines total environmental impacts and gross value added in Switzerland. Results show that no policy alternative guarantees environmental impact reductions and gross value added gains under all developments of exogenous constraints. Downcycling to foam glass in Switzerland is not only an environmentally sound disposal option, but it also buffers gross value added losses in case domestic recycling (and thus glass-packaging production in Switzerland) ceases in the future. The substitution of products based on raw materials other than Swiss cullet is the main responsible for change in environmental and economic impacts. Hence, an eco-efficiency maximizing policy should consider the products of disposal schemes. The combination of scenario analysis and eco-efficiency assessment as presented in this paper can be applied to other contexts (i.e., countries, waste fractions).     

基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系及协同设计环境研究

本文介绍了基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系框架,提出了可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性协同设计环境要求,从而为进行可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性综合优化设计奠定基础。     

Watershed management and the Web

Watershed analysis and watershed management are developing as tools of integrated ecological and economic study. They also assist decision-making at the regional scale. The new technology and thinking offered by the advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web is highly complementary to some of the goals of watershed analysis. Services delivered by the Web are open, interactive, fast, spatially distributed, hierarchical and flexible. The Web offers the ability to display information creatively, to interact with that information and to change and modify it remotely. In this way the Internet provides a much-needed opportunity to deliver scientific findings and information to stakeholders and to link stakeholders together providing for collective decision-making. The benefits fall into two major categories: methodological and educational. Methodologically the approach furthers the watershed management concept, offering an avenue for practical implementation of watershed management principles. For educational purposes the Web is a source of data and insight serving a variety of needs at all levels. We use the Patuxent River case study to illustrate the web-based approach to watershed management. A watershed scale simulation model is built for the Patuxent area and it serves as a core for watershed management design based on web applications. It integrates the knowledge available for the Patuxent area in a comprehensive and systematic format, and provides a conceptual basis for understanding the performance of the watershed as a system. Moreover, the extensive data collection and conceptualisation required within the framework of the modeling effort stimulates close contact with the environmental management community. This is further enhanced by offering access to the modeling results and the data sets over the Web. Additional web applications and links are provided to increase awareness and involvement of stakeholders in the watershed management process. We argue that it is not the amount and quality of information that is crucial for the success of watershed management, but how well the information is disseminated, shared and used by the stakeholders. In this respect the Web offers a wealth of opportunities for the decision-making process, but still to be answered are the questions at what scale and how widely will the Web be accepted as a management tool, and how can watershed management benefit from web applications.     

基于支持向量机的湖泊生态系统健康评价研究

利用支持向量机在处理分类问题、小样本问题和泛化推广方面的优势,构建了基于支持向量机的湖泊生态系统健康评价模型.同时,对广州市最大的人工湖——白云湖的水质及生物群落情况进行了监测,最后运用该模型对白云湖生态系统健康状况进行了评价.评价结果表明,白云湖生态系统处于病态状态,不能达到其净化水质的设计作用.建议从提高进水水质、实施湖区截污和丰富生物量3方面改善白云湖生态系统健康水平.与传统熵权综合健康指数法和熵权模糊综合评价法相比,所建模型更加客观、科学地评价了湖泊生态系统健康状况,能够为湖泊生态系统健康管理提供一定依据,具有广阔的应用前景.     

海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统的设计与实现

目的研制开发"海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统",实现海军航空装备保障管理智能化,有效利用保障资源,提高保障工作效率。方法采用C/S和B/S模式相结合,前台以NevronNETVision为系统开发平台,后台数据管理采用大型关系型数据库SQLServe,通过网络计划技术和AOE网分析技术,实现图形绘制和确定关键路线。结果通过导入Excel工作薄,实现统筹图、甘特图、资源载荷图的自动生成,提供可视化的图形编辑和统筹图的规范性检查,能进行关键路径、时间参数计算和人员负荷分析。结论 "海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统"智能、高效,为海军航空装备保障管理智能化提供了技术支持。     

我军"基地化宿营保障系统"建设初探

野营保障在后勤保障领域中地位特殊,是其他保障展开的基础和依托,如何适应现代战争体系作战的要求,实现体系化野营保障,是当今世界军事强国在后勤领域内的研究重点,针对此,通过研究美军"力量提供者系统"、俄军"自主式野战军营系统"和国内"救灾生活系统"等基地化宿营保障系统的研制目标、模块组成和使用情况,并从保障规模设置、功能模块组成、储运条件、保障力量设置与编程和主要运用场景及程序等方面,提出了我军基地化宿营保障系统建设的构想,旨在为提升我军野战条件下宿营保障的质量和效益进行探索。     

基于整体开发管理的国际河流决策支持系统

基于国际河流开发管理的现状，分析国际河流整体开发管理理论的演进。得出整体开发管理决策实施的原则及思路：流域开发管理要以流域边界为界，将整个水系自然联系的区域作为不可分割的整体，进行统一权衡，突出共同利益，流域内开发与流域外开发相结合。以建立多层次的国际合作机构。对国际河流决策支持系统进行设计，即以国际河流流域为体系，各国国内流域测点为单元。国际流域综合协调委员会为决策支持中心、各国流域机构委员会为决策支持分中心。并研究系统的公用信息平台建设，信息开发、管理与维护。河流水资源、水环境实时监控等技术支持系统。实证分析澜沧江-湄公河流域决策支持系统的建设。并指出国际河流水资源的开发与管理，水权等问题有待进一步深入研究。     

我国自然保护区建设中的环境剥夺问题

近年来我国各地大量增长的自然保护区实质上是一种环境剥夺现象。受环境考核体系与推行可持续发展战略需要．加大自然保护区建设力度是地方政府能够采取的比较成熟的环境保护手段。但是．通过博弈模型，可以推导出．受地方财政刚性预算约束．政府在地方自然保护区建设与管理中不能对环境区原有居民落实各项补偿．也难以投入必需的保护性管理费用。于是．在自然保护区管理中．保护区居民与管理机构之间博弈形成的纳什均衡是：居民违反有关规定，尽可能延续以往开发利用环境资源的经济活动。以抗衡自然保护区建设对他们“靠山吃山、靠水吃水”经济模式的压制；管理机构则实施开发性管理，以求自身努力。增加经济收入以保障自然保护区各项基础研究和管理活动。由于经营活动迎合了增加地方财政收入的地方政府经济发展目标。因此。在目前的自然保护区建设中普遍存在各种形式的开发性经营管理活动。但是．由于一些制度缺陷．在这种开发性管理战略中，一些环境区变相为政府权力支配下的环境资源．并借用可持续开发管理名义进一步转变成为某些地方机构与组织的私有环境资产。其后果是使自然保护区制度偏离了政策目标，也使环境区居民丧失了传统的环境支撑作用。对此论点．研究通过对近十年地方自然保护区建设数量的情况分析予以了经验验证。