水资源可持续利用支撑体系能力的基本内涵

本文以山东省水资源利用实际为背景 ,探讨了水资源可持续利用的目标函数及其指标内涵 ,定性定量提出了水资源可持续利用支撑体系应具备的五种能力。     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

The mental health of expatriate and Kosovar Albanian humanitarian aid workers

The mental health consequences of exposure to traumatic events and the risk factors for psychological morbidity among expatriate and Kosovar Albanian humanitarian aid workers have not been well studied. In June 2000, we used standardised screening tools to survey 285 (69.5%) of 410 expatriate aid workers and 325 (75.8%) of 429 Kosovar Albanian aid workers from 22 humanitarian organizations that were implementing health programmes in Kosovo. The mean number of trauma events experienced by expatriates was 2.8 (standard deviation: 2.7) and by Kosovar staff 3.2 (standard deviation: 2.8). Although only 1.1% of expatriate and 6.2% of Kosovar aid workers reported symptoms consistent with the diagnosis for post-traumatic stress disorder, 17.2% and 16.9%, respectively, reported symptoms satisfying the definition of depression. Regression analysis demonstrated that the number of trauma events experienced was significantly associated with depression for the two sets of workers. Organisational support services may be an important mediating factor and should be targeted at both groups.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

液压支架薄煤层采煤工作面风流流动规律研究

分别对北宿煤矿以装备液压支架和单体支柱为主的14710和1667薄煤层采煤工作面风流场进行了现场测定研究,结果显示,装备液压支架后,工作面的风流流动规律发生了较大变化,百米风阻值及向采空区的漏风率均大幅度提高。     

关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法

针对单一交通流预测方法存在的局限性和传统交通流组合预测模型中权重不能动态变化的问题,提出一种关联交叉口交通流模糊变权重组合预测方法。先对交叉口交通流的关联性进行分析,并给出关联交叉口的定义;再建立关联交叉口交通流模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型,该模型分别利用Kalman滤波器模型与SVM模型来预测关联交叉口交通流量,然后根据这2个模型预测的误差和交通量的变化趋势,采用模糊逻辑推理方法,对这2个预测模型分别赋予适当的权重。试验结果表明,组合预测模型的最大绝对误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数均明显好于单一的预测方法,分别为9.8%、4.63%和0.99。     

超前支架迈步过程稳定控制方法研究

为提高巷道超前支架迈步前移过程的稳定性和安全性,建立一种基于液压油液体积平均释放原则的迈步稳定控制方法。用软件仿真及样机实测的方法,检验所提出控制方法的控制效果。结果表明,与传统的直线、对数曲线、指数曲线的阀芯位移控制方法相比,应用所建立的方法,设备迈步过程支撑力波动最小,稳定过程耗时最短,为2.2 s,顶板变形量最小,最大值约为4.74 mm。而采用对数曲线控制方式效果最差,稳定过程耗时3.8 s,顶板变形量最大值达到9.48 mm。     

2000年环保战略目标定量考核方法研究

参加国家环保局科技3项费用课题《2000年环境保护战略目标定量考核指标研究》的8个地区对于2000年环保战略目标提出了不同的考核方法.本文在深入分析各种考核方法的基础上,通过归纳总结,向读者推荐几种基本方法,它们是 TOPS(?)S 方法、简单加性加权法和公式计分法.这些方法是一些基本的数学手段,通过对各具体考核指标的适当综合,归纳出表征总体目标实现程度的数值.即:这些方法是整体考核方法,从整体上说明存在问题和差距,为决策者提供实现环保战略目标的科学依据.     

Women's opinions on the offer and use of maternal serum screening

We studied the opinions and experiences concerning maternal serum screening of two groups of women: (A) women who were not eligible for prenatal diagnosis; and (B) women for whom prenatal diagnosis was available because of advanced maternal age, and who either underwent chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Many of the women were in favour of the availability of serum screening and would apply for this test in a future pregnancy. This applied also to many respondents who had previously undergone prenatal diagnosis. Most of these women, however, did not intend to decline diagnostic amniocentesis if the screening results did not indicate an increased risk. The majority of the group of respondents of 36 years and over did not consider it acceptable if age indication was dropped altogether. A system based on serum screening will have other implications than a policy based on age indication, since specific individual risk assessment is perceived as being of more significance than a risk statistically derived from age alone. Serum screening is often seen as a means of reassurance and many women are not aware of the possible drawbacks. As technology becomes increasingly complicated, counselling has to be adjusted correspondingly. Further research is needed to establish whether and how distress can be minimized and well-considered individual choice can be achieved.     

地震灾后重建中的多元化资金支持研究

本文以汶川地震为背景,针对灾后重建资金需求量大、持续时间长的特点,提出灾后重建资金来源应以财政资金为引导,走多元化的道路;并分别从财政资金支持、信贷资金支持、社会资金支持、国外资金支持、保险资金支持、证券市场资金支持的角度进行分析,提出了在财政资金引导下,切实可行的多元化资金支持建议.