Uncertainty analysis of predicted disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic in complex landscapes at fort hood

The US Army Engineering Research Development Center (ERDC) uses a modified form of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate spatially explicit rates of soil erosion by water across military training facilities. One modification involves the RUSLE support practice factor (P factor), which is used to account for the effect of disturbance by human activities on erosion rates. Since disturbance from off-road military vehicular traffic moving through complex landscapes varies spatially, a spatially explicit nonlinear regression model (disturbance model) is used to predict the distribution of P factor values across a training facility. This research analyzes the uncertainty in this model's disturbance predictions for the Fort Hood training facility in order to determine both the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty. This analysis shows that a three-category vegetation map used by the disturbance model was the greatest source of prediction uncertainty, especially for the map categories shrub and tree. In areas mapped as grass, modeling error (uncertainty associated with the model parameter estimates) was the largest uncertainty source. These results indicate that the use of a high-quality vegetation map that is periodically updated to reflect current vegetation distributions, would produce the greatest reductions in disturbance prediction uncertainty.     

Changes in interacting species with disturbance

Human-influenced changes in the diversity and abundance of native wildlife in a southern boreal forest area, which became a national park in 1975, are used to develop working hypotheses for predicting and subsequently measuring the effects of disturbance or restoration programs on groups of interacting species. Changes from presettlement conditions began with early 1900 hunting, which eliminated woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and elk (Cervus elaphus), and reduced moose (Alces alces) to the low numbers which still persist. Increases in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), as these other cervid species became less abundant or absent, provided enough alternative food to sustain the system's carnivores until plant succession on previously burned or logged areas also caused deer to decline. With increased competition for reduced food, carnivore species also became less abundant or absent and overexploited some prey populations. The abilities of interacting species to maintain dynamically stable populations or persist varied with their different capacities to compensate for increased exploitation or competition. These relationships suggested a possible solution to the problem of predicting the stability of populations in disturbed systems. For the 1976–1985 period, a hypothesis that the increased protection of wildlife from exploitation in a national park would restore a more diverse, abundant, and productive fauna had to be rejected.     

The Effect of Military Training Activity on Eastern Lupine and the Karner Blue Butterfly at Fort McCoy,Wisconsin, USA

The US Department of Defense (DOD) manages over 10.1 million ha of land, much of which is used for training military personnel. However, vast sections receive little or no use, and military lands have become refuges for many species. At Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA, populations of the endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis) are found in oak and pine barren communities where wild lupine (Lupinus perennis), a perennial forb required by Karner blue butterfly larvae, still occurs. Oak and pine barren communities are disturbance-dependent, and the barrens ecosystems in the Midwest have declined in extent by 98% because of fire suppression, succession, and habitat fragmentation. We studied the effects of disturbance by military manuever training on the density of lupine and Karner blue butterfly at Fort McCoy. We also wanted to determine whether military training activity could enhance Karner blue butterfly habitat. At locations where tracked vehicles had driven through lupine patches, the abundance of lupine and nectar-producing plants was greater in the median strip between vehicle ruts than in vehicle ruts or 5 m outside the vehicle ruts. The proportion of lupine stems with Karner blue butterfly larvae feeding sign (the ratio of stems fed upon to stems examined) was greater in areas where military vehicles had traveled than where they had not. The proportion of lupine stems with feeding sign and lupine stem density was also positively related to the occurrence of prior bivouacs and fires caused by military munitions. Shrub and forest canopy abundance were lower in areas traveled by tracked vehicles. At the scale of the lupine patch, lupine abundance and the proportion of lupine stems with feeding sign were positively correlated with military training activities, suggesting that maintenance of lupine habitat can be achieved in concert with military training.     

Underwater video as a monitoring tool to detect change in seagrass cover

To date seagrass monitoring has involved the removal of seagrass from its environment. In fragile or highly disturbed systems, monitoring using destructive techniques may interfere with the environment or add to the burden of disturbance. Video photography is a form of non-destructive monitoring that does not require the removal of seagrass or interference with the environment and has the potential to be a valuable tool in monitoring seagrass systems. This study investigated the efficacy of video photography as a tool for detecting change in seagrass cover, using the temperate Australian species Amphibolis antarctica (Labill.) Sonder ex Aschers. Using visual and random point estimates of seagrass cover from video footage, it was possible to determine the minimum sample size (number of random video frames) needed to detect change in seagrass cover, the minimum detectable change in cover and the probability of the monitoring design committing a Type II error. Video footage was examined at three scales: transects (m apart), sites (km apart) and regions (tens of km apart). Using visual and random point estimation techniques, a minimum sample size of ten quadrats per transect was required to detect change in uniform and variable seagrass cover. With ten quadrats it was possible to identify a minimum detectable change in cover of 15% for uniform and 30% for variable seagrass cover. Power analysis was used to determine the probability of committing a Type II error from the data. Region level data had low power, corresponding to a high risk of committing a Type II error. Site and transect level data had high power corresponding to a low risk of committing a Type II error. Based on this study's data, managers using video to monitor for change in seagrass cover are advised to use data from the smaller scale, for example, site and transect level data. By using data from the smaller scale, managers will have a low risk of incorrectly concluding there has not been a disturbance when one has actually occurred.     

Development of a Bird Integrity Index: Measuring Avian Response to Disturbance in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, USA

The Bird Integrity Index (BII) presented here uses bird assemblage information to assess human impacts to 28 stream reaches in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. Eighty-one candidate metrics were extracted from bird survey data for testing. The metrics represented aspects of bird taxonomic richness, tolerance or intolerance to human disturbance, dietary preferences, foraging techniques, and nesting strategies that were expected to be positively or negatively affected by human activities in the region. To evaluate the responsiveness of each metric, it was plotted against an index of reach and watershed disturbance that included attributes of land use/land cover, road density, riparian cover, mining impacts, and percent area in clearcut and partial-cut logging. Nine of the 81 candidate bird metrics remained after eliminating unresponsive and highly correlated metrics. Individual metric scores ranged from 0 to 10, and BII scores varied between 0 and 100. BII scores varied from 78.6 for a minimally disturbed, reference stream reach to 30.4 for the most highly disturbed stream reach. The BII responded clearly to varying riparian conditions and to the cumulative effects of disturbances, such as logging, grazing, and mining, which are common in the mountains of eastern Oregon. This BII for eastern Oregon was compared to an earlier BII developed for the agricultural and urban disturbance regime of the Willamette Valley in western Oregon. The BII presented here was sensitive enough to distinguish differences in condition among stream riparian zones with disturbances that were not as obvious or irreversible as those in the agricultural/urban conditions of western Oregon.     

Comparison of community composition and species diversity of understorey and overstorey tree species in a dry tropical forest of northern India

The study focuses on understorey-overstorey plant community dynamics in a dry tropical forest to facilitate appropriate management decisions. We compare community composition and species diversity of the understorey vegetation among five dry tropical forest sites in northern India. A total of 1500 quadrats distributed over 15 one-ha permanent plots in five sites differing in the degree of disturbance, were used to enumerate the understorey tree species and the results were compared with overstorey tree layer. The non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination revealed that human disturbance intensity, as well as the overall disturbance regimes, and soil water holding capacity controlled the organisation of dry tropical forest understorey composition through effects on soil organic matter. The alpha-diversity and its components decreased with increasing human disturbance intensity, reflecting utilisation pressure and decreased soil fertility, as also revealed by the analysis of overstorey tree layer. There was a significant positive relationship between overstorey and understorey diversity. Results suggest that in the future, the existing understorey tree communities may replace the current dry tropical forest communities under prevailing environmental conditions. The study also asserts that the rate of species accumulation will be greater in more disturbed sites as well as at small spatial scale within each disturbance level.     

Learning to recognize novel predators under weakly acidic conditions: the effects of reduced pH on acquired predator recognition by juvenile rainbow trout

Summary. Recent studies have demonstrated that under weakly acidic conditions (pH 6.0), many prey fishes, including juvenile rainbow trout (Onchorhynchus mykiss), do not exhibit overt antipredator responses to conspecific chemical alarm cues. In laboratory trials, we investigated the potential effects of reduced pH on the ability of hatchery reared, predator naïve juvenile rainbow trout to acquire the recognition of a novel predator (yellow perch, Perca flavenscens). Initially, we exposed trout to the odour of a predatory yellow perch, buffered to pH 6.0 (weakly acidic) or pH 7.0 (neutral) paired with conspecific skin extracts (also buffered to pH 6.0 or 7.0) or a distilled water control. Juvenile trout exhibited significant increase in antipredator behaviour when exposed to neutral skin extract (pH 7.0). When retested 48 hours later to perch odour alone (pH 7.0), only trout initially conditioned with neutral skin extracts (pairs with either neutral or acidic perch odour) exhibited a learned recognition of perch odour as a predator risk. Those initially exposed to weakly acidic skin extract or the distilled water control did not show a learned response to predator odour. These results demonstrate that the ability to acquire the recognition of novel predators is impaired under weakly acidic conditions, as would occur in natural waterways affected by acidic precipitation.     

Potential Long-Term Ecological Impacts Caused by Disturbance of Contaminated Sediments:A Case Study

Several submerged barges were recently removed from the Passaic River, New Jersey, USA, in two areas (areas 1 and 2) where contaminated sediments are known to exist. During removal of the single barge in area 1, elevated turbidity levels and chemical parameters were measured. Greater increases were measured in area 2, where several barges were removed. In both areas, water column concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and several metals exceeded one or more water quality criteria; turbidity levels in area 2 also exceeded regulatory criteria. Potential chemical bioaccumulation from the water column into residential aquatic receptors was estimated using standard models and assumptions. The modeled results predicted that steady-state tissue concentrations of bioaccumulative chemicals would not occur as a result of the brief increase in water column concentrations that occurred during barge removal but that metals and PCDD/Fs could bioaccumulate to levels that exceed regulatory ecological criteria during long-term sediment disturbance activities. In addition, based on some simplistic assumptions regarding settling of suspended sediments, we estimate that chemical bioaccumulation from surface sediments into the food web could result in substantial increases in PCDD/F body burdens in the benthic forage fish, mummichog. Our findings are consistent with the limited number of field studies that have measured increased body burdens of bioaccumulative chemicals following dredging. We suggest that, prior to consideration of extensive dredging as a remedial alternative for any river system, the potential significant and long-term impacts on the food web must be evaluated.     

Correlated changes in breeding status and polyunsaturated cuticular hydrocarbons: the chemical basis of nestmate recognition in the burying beetle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nicrophorus vespilloides</Emphasis>?

Nestmate recognition in eusocial insects has received a lot of attention in the last decades. Recognition in subsocial species, in contrast, has been ignored almost completely and consequently, and little is known about proximate mechanisms of recognition in subsocial systems. We studied one subsocial species, the biparental brood caring burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, an interesting model organism for studies of recognition because of its ability to discriminate between breeding partners and conspecific competitors. Recognition appears to be based on a chemical cue closely linked to the breeding status of individuals. Breeding and non-breeding beetles consistently differ in their relative proportions of polyunsaturated cuticular hydrocarbons. To investigate the function of these polyenes in the burying beetles’ recognition system, we quantified their concentration on the cuticle during the early state of a breeding attempt and tested the response of breeding beetles in corresponding behavioural experiments. We observed a rapid increase in the proportion of polyunsaturated hydrocarbons of both males and females after they were provided with a carcass suitable for reproduction. Furthermore, we found that the relative amount of polyenes on an individual’s surface was closely correlated with its chance of being accepted as breeding partner. Our results support the idea that polyunsaturated hydrocarbons are involved in breeding partner recognition in N. vespilloides, functioning as a signal that conveys information about the individual’s breeding status. Breeding females have greater amount of polyenes than breeding males, and females ingest more carrion during the first days on the carcass, which supports our hypothesis that precursors for the respective polyenes are derived from ingested carrion.     

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Summary.  Several freshwater invertebrate and vertebrate prey species rely on chemosensory cues, including non-injury released disturbance cues, to assess and avoid local predation threats. The prevailing hypothesis is that a pulse of ammonia released by disturbed or stressed prey functions as the disturbance cue. Here, we test this hypothesis in two phylogenetically distant freshwater prey fishes, convict cichlids and rainbow trout. In our first experiment, we measured NH₄ ⁺ concentration in tanks containing shoals of cichlid or trout before and after exposure to a realistic model predator (or left undisturbed). We failed to find an increase in ambient NH₄ ⁺ concentration for either cichlids or trout. In our second experiment, we exposed cichlids or trout to NH₄ ⁺ at 0.1 or 0.5 mg L⁻¹ (or a distilled water control) and measured the change in antipredator behaviour (time moving, foraging rate and area use). We found no consistent increase in antipredator behaviour in response to NH₄ ⁺. In our third study, we exposed cichlids and trout to the disturbance cues of cichlids or trout (versus the odour of undisturbed donors). We found significant increases in antipredator behaviour, regardless of donor species, for both cichlids and trout. Thus, the results of our first two experiments do not support the hypothesis that ammonium functions as a disturbance cue in prey fishes. However, the results of our final experiment do confirm the use of disturbance cues in convict cichlids and rainbow trout and support that hypothesis that the disturbance cue is indeed some generalized metabolic byproduct.