冲突分析理论方法及其在环境管理中的实例研究

对冲突分析的基本概念和原理做了简要介绍,以环境规划管理的的业务为背景,指出冲突问题的广泛存在和研究冲突分析的必要性,并就＂污染集中治理的投资分摊问题＂进行深入地探讨,提出了5种协商解,通过分析比较,推荐＂不次于N－1方合作收益的协商解＂作为一般问题的解,对于同情弱势方的仲裁者,则推荐＂以不合作为现状点的基于满意度的协商解＂。     

起重机在特殊工况下的静刚度与动刚度安全性分析

通过对一台桥式电磁起重机静刚度和动刚度的理论计算,以及对其主梁的探伤检查,分析了桥式起重机在特殊工况下的静刚度和动刚度,指出了在设计时应考虑的安全性问题。     

Decision making with option pricing and dynamic programming: development and application

In this study, an option pricing model and a dynamic programming model are developed. These models contribute to the improvement of the decision making process in two respects. First, these models allow for the own growth rate of mining costs to be incorporated into the analysis. Second, these models are developed to estimate the satisfactory gross revenue for investing, so that these models are helpful in analyzing multi-metal mines.The two models are applied to estimate the satisfactory revenue for investing in the Carlin east gold mine, Nevada, USA. The satisfactory revenue estimated by the option pricing model is found to be $42.2M, while that estimated by the dynamic programming model is found to be $44.4M. Since the revenue calculated on the basis of the current conditions is $36M, then the decision by option pricing and dynamic programming is to wait and not to invest now. Despite the difference between the two models in estimating and applying the discount rate, the two models generate the same decision.     

城市河流重金属元素对降雨径流的动态响应

以海口市美舍河市区河段为研究对象,于2020年雨季分别采集降雨径流以及降雨径流汇入后的河流瞬时水样,测定并分析主要重金属元素的浓度及其变化规律,探讨其对降雨径流的动态响应。研究结果表明：降雨径流对河流可溶态污染元素质量浓度的贡献不突出,对可溶态锌（Zn）、砷（As）、镉（Cd）、硒（Se）具有一定稀释作用,排水口下游 3 m处是可溶态铬(Cr）、锰（Mn）、钴（Co）对降雨径流响应最显著区域;降雨径流对各悬浮态元素质量浓度贡献较大,排水口下游7 m处是绝大多数悬浮态元素对降〖JP〗雨径流响应最显著区域;Mn、Zn、Cr、镍（Ni）、As、Co、Cd 7种元素的总质量浓度对降雨径流的动态响应表现为先上升后下降。其中,排水口下游3 m处是Cr、As总质量浓度对降雨径流响应最显著区段,排水口下游7 m处是Mn、Co、Ni、Zn及Cd总质量浓度对降雨径流响应最显著区段。降雨径流对河流主要污染元素年输入总量估算结果表明,海口市建成区降雨径流向美舍河等受纳水体直接年输入量最大的是Mn和Zn,其次是Cr、As、Ni,Se与Cd的年输入量最小。     

Flame-propagation behavior and a dynamic model for the thermal-radiation effects in coal-dust explosions

To reveal the flame-propagation behavior and the thermal-radiation effects during coal-dust explosions, two coal-dust clouds were tested in a semi-enclosed vertical combustion tube. A high-speed video camera and a thermal infrared imaging device were used to record the flame-propagation process and the thermal-radiation effects of the fireball at the combustion-tube outlet. The flame propagated more quickly and with a higher temperature in the more volatile coal-dust cloud. The coal-dust concentration also significantly affected the propagation behavior of the combustion zone. When the coal-dust concentration was increased, the flame-propagation velocity and the fireball temperature increased before decreasing overall. Based on the experimental results, a dynamic model of the thermal radiation was employed to describe the changes in the fireballs quantitatively and to estimate the thermal-radiation effects during coal-dust explosions.     

Threshold management in a coupled economic–ecological system

Economic analysis of optimal ecosystem management in the presence of a threshold has typically ignored the potential for induced behavioral responses. This paper contributes to the literature on non-convex ecosystem management by considering the implications of a particular behavioral response in a regional economy – that of amenity-led growth – to changes in ecosystem services generated by a lake ecosystem subject to a eutrophication threshold. The essential policy challenge is to achieve optimal levels of lake nutrients and urbanization given that improvements to water quality will induce additional migration and urbanization in the region with attendant ecological impacts. We show that policies that ignore the recursive relationship between urbanization and water quality unintentionally exacerbate boom-bust cycles of regional growth and decline and risk pushing the system towards long-run economic decline. In contrast, the optimal policy accounts for the behavioral feedbacks to improved ecosystem services, and balances regional growth and ecological degradation.     

An approach to calculating allowable watershed pollutant loads

To improve the management of discharge pollutants loads in the reservoirs’ watershed, an approach of the allowable pollutants loads calculation and its allocation, based on the water environment model, was proposed. Establishment of the approach framework was described at first. Under the guidance of this framework, two major steps were as follows: modeling and scenario analysis were involved and should be applied to support the decision of discharge loads management; Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model was selected as the kernel model in this framework. In modeling step, spatial discretization for establishing cell map in model, data preprocessing, parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis (which is considered as the significantly relevant factor of the margin of safety (MOS)), were conducted. As a result of the research, the model-based approach presented as a combination of estimation and precise calculation, which contributed to scenario analysis step. Some integrated modules, such as scenario simulation, result analysis and plan optimization were implemented as cycles in the scenario analysis. Finally, allowable pollutant loads under various conditions were calculated. The Chaihe Reservoir in Liaoning Province, China was used as a case study for an application of the approach described above. Results of the Chaihe reservoir water quality simulation, show good agreement with field data and demonstrated that the approach used in the present study provide an efficient and appropriate methodology for pollutant load allocation.     

Estimating the influence of overhead transmission power lines and landscape context on the density of little bustard Tetrax tetrax breeding populations

Collision with conductors and earth cables is a known impact generated by transmission power lines, however there is virtually no information on how these infrastructures might affect bird distribution in a landscape context. With this work we specifically hypothesise that transmission power lines may affect the occurrence of a threatened bird, the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax). To test this hypothesis we used a Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM), analysing the effects of power lines in a landscape perspective and simulating population trends as a response to power line installation and habitat changes induced by agricultural shifts in southern Portugal. The data used in the dynamic model construction included relevant gradients of environmental conditions and was sampled during the breeding seasons of 2003-2006. Transmission power lines were significantly avoided by the little bustard and the developed StDM model showed that the distance to these utility structures is the most important factor determining breeding densities in sites with suitable habitat for the species, which possibly leads to displacement of populations and habitat fragmentation. The model simulations also provided the base to analyse the cumulative effects caused by the habitat degradation that can ultimately lead to the extinction of local populations. Within priority conservation sites, the dismantling of existing transmission lines should be considered whenever possible, in order to ensure adequate breeding habitat. The model is considered useful as an auxiliary tool to be used in environmental impact assessments, management and conservation studies.     

Fish wars and cooperation maintenance

In this paper, a discrete-time game model related to a bioresource management problem (fish catching) is considered. We divide a fishery into regions, which are exploited by single players. The center (referee) shares a reservoir between the competitors. The players (countries), which harvest the fish stock are the participants of this game.We assume that there are migratory exchanges between the regions of the reservoir. Therefore, the stock in one region depends not only on the previous stock and catch in the region, but also on the stock and catch in neighboring regions. We derive the Nash and cooperative equilibria for an infinite planning horizon.We consider two ways to maintain the cooperation: incentive equilibrium and time-consistent imputation distribution procedure. We investigate the cooperative incentive equilibrium in the case when the center punishes players for a deviation.Also we consider the case when the center is a player and find the Shapley value and time-consistent imputation distribution procedure. We introduce a new condition which offers an incentive to players to keep cooperating.     

流域农业面源污染动态监控系统的建立和运行

提出建立农业面源污染动态监控系统的技术构思,构筑了“辽宁省农业面源污染动态监控系统”的功能及运行机制的构架,阐述了推进此动态监控系统完善的研究方案与系统实施的保证措施。