太湖流域1954~2006年气候变化及其演变趋势

用Mann Kendall统计检验方法对太湖流域6个气象站点1954~2006年降水、气温、相对湿度、日照时数的变化趋势和时空特征进行了分析，结果表明：50余年来太湖流域降水量呈较弱的增加趋势，冬季和夏季降水增加显著；空间变化趋势表现为北部地区降水量呈下降趋势，东南部地区呈上升趋势。年平均相对湿度表现为微弱的下降趋势，M K倾斜度值为 -099%/10 a；春、秋季相对湿度都显著减小，而夏季减小幅度较弱，冬季减小现象不显著。年平均气温呈现明显上升趋势，并表现出最低气温比最高气温增高趋势显著的特点，冬、春季增温显著；空间分布变化趋势为以平湖和溧阳为中心的两个地区上升趋势最小，以上海为中心地区上升幅度较大。年日照时数的下降趋势幅度较大，以溧阳为中心的西部地区最为明显，四个季节日照时数都呈减少的趋势；空间分布变化趋势表现为全流域呈减少趋势，由西向东减少幅度依次减小。气候变暖，降水将进一步增加，必然导致径流也呈增加趋势，在一定程度上加大了太湖流域洪涝灾害发生的可能性。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对太湖流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为太湖流域未来气候变化情景的构建提供科学依据。     

环境规制、空间溢出与地区产业竞争力

利用1999-2009年中国30个省大中型工业企业数据,考察了产业竞争力的影响因素,特别是环境规制的影响.通过非空间模型和空间Durbin模型检验了产业竞争力和环境规制的关系.在空间模型中,估算了直接和溢出效应.结果发现,环境规制变量的直接和溢出效应分别为-0.17和0.559,且统计上高度显著,进而其总效应也显著为正.这表明,环境规制有较高的正的空间溢出效应,这似乎有可能引发地区间的环境竞次竞争行为;如果忽略污染的空间溢出,将严重低估环境规制的作用.还发现,外商直接投资、科技人员数和产业规模对产业竞争力有显著的正的直接效应.进而提出政府应加快完善环境补偿的制度,一是中央政府应当建立健全环境补偿立法;二是完善环境补偿的管理体制,协调和指导跨地区的环境补偿;三是加大与环境补偿有关的财政转移支付力度.     

镇江地区土壤中重金属Cu和Pb污染状况与空间分布

为了锯镇江地区土壤中重金属Cu和Ph的污染状况与空间分布,对镇江地区表层土壤中的Cu和Pb进行了采样监测。结果表明,镇江地区表层土壤中cu的含量为19．2～273mg／kg,Pb的含量为20．6～3846mg／kg。与全省土壤背景值相比,均有一定程度的富集。对cu和Pb的相互关系进行分析可得出,镇江地区土壤在一定程度上受到农业面源的污染。     

现代能源生态系统建设:一种理论探讨

在现代社会发展中,能源资源开发和利用所产生的巨大极化效应使整个人类可持续发展面临越来越严重的挑战。论文应用工业生态学的观点对能源系统的建设进行重新认识,提出了“能源生态系统”的概念;阐述了能源生态系统的3个组成部分:内生系统,外生系统,共生系统;并探讨了其空间结构的类型划分和基本形态。论文建立的现代能源生态建设基本框架,为进一步开展此方面的理论探讨提供有益借鉴。     

基于MGWR的黄河流域土壤有机碳密度和影响因素分析

土壤有机碳作为最大陆地碳库,其空间分布特征和影响因素对于全球碳循环过程具有重要影响.基于土壤有机碳密度数据,结合环境因子,使用多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型预测了黄河流域土壤有机碳密度（SOCD）和影响因素.结果表明：①黄河流域0~20 cm和0~100 cm的SOCD范围分别为0~14.82 kg ·m^-2和0~32.39kg ·m^-2,均值分别为3.48 kg ·m^-2和8.07kg ·m^-2,储量则分别为2.76 Pg和6.48 Pg;②各生态系统类型中,0~20 cm的SOCD从大到小依次为：森林>水体与湿地>其他>草地>农田>聚落>荒漠,0~100 cm的SOCD从大到小依次为：水体与湿地>森林>其他>草地>农田>聚落>荒漠,SOCR从大到小皆为：草地>农田>森林>荒漠>水体与湿地>聚落>其他;③黄河流域SOCD的分布主要受常数项、剖面曲率、NDVI和降水的影响,曲率和粉砂对深层的SOCD的分布也具有重要影响;此外,降水、NDVI和常数项（除森林外）是影响各生态系统的主要因素,曲率和粉砂则仅对荒漠和其他生态系统具有重要影响.研究结果得出了黄河流域SOCD的空间分布和影响因素,可为黄河流域碳平衡、土壤质量评价和生态治理恢复与巩固提升提供科学依据.     

河套灌区浅层地下水NO3--N时空变化及驱动因素

为探明河套灌区地下水硝酸盐污染现状、时空演变特征和主要影响因素,选择乌拉特灌域为研究区,采用统计分析、 Piper三线图、相关分析和离子比值等方法,探究了该地区地下水硝酸盐质量浓度时空变化格局和主要驱动因素.结果表明,乌拉特灌域地下水氮素主要以NO^-₃-N为主,ρ（NO^-₃-N）存在极高值(60.00 mg·L^-1),超标率达10.50%;时间分布：8月地下水ρ（NO^-₃-N）最高(平均值为6.61 mg·L^-1), 10月(6.22 mg·L^-1)和11月(6.25 mg·L^-1)次之,3月(平均值为1.77 mg·L^-1)最小,土壤中NO^-₃-N在降雨和灌溉驱动作用影响下,下渗至地下水,呈现出丰水期和灌溉集中期高于其它时期的特征;空间分布：灌域西南部(8.87 mg·L^-1)&g...     

乌鲁木齐城市地表温度时空变化与贡献度研究

伴随着新疆首府乌鲁木齐市经济快速发展,人口持续增加、城市化进程不断加快,地表温度也发生极其显著的变化.以乌鲁木齐市中心城区为研究对象,利用1990—2018年的4期Landsat卫星影像和中国科学院土地利用/覆被分类数据,采用地表温度反演、重心转移模型、空间聚类分析以及计算贡献度指数等方法,定量研究乌鲁木齐市城市化进程...     

Spectral tests of randomness for spatial point patterns

We develop a spectral framework for testing the hypothesis of complete spatial randomness (CSR) for a spatial point pattern. Five formal tests based on the periodogram (sample spectrum) proposed in Mugglestone (1990) are considered. A simulation study is used to evaluate and compare the power of the tests against clustered, regular and inhomogeneous alternatives to CSR. A subset of the tests is shown to be uniformly more powerful than the others against the alternatives considered. The spectral tests are also compared with three widely used space-domain tests that are based on the mean nearest-neighbor distance, the reduced second-order moment function (K-function), and a bivariate Cramér-von Mises statistic. The test based on the scaled cumulative R-spectrum is more powerful than the space-domain tests for detecting clustered alternatives to CSR, especially when the number of events is small.     

EFFECTS OF WATERSHED REPRESENTATION ON RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING1

ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates the effects of watershed geometric representation (i.e., plane and channel representation) on runoff and sediment yield simulations in a semiarid rangeland watershed. A process based, spatially distributed runoff erosion model (KINEROS2) was used to explore four spatial representations of a 4.4 ha experimental watershed. The most complex representation included all 96 channel elements identifiable in the field. The least complex representation contained only five channel elements. It was concluded that oversimplified watershed representations greatly influence runoff and sediment yield simulations by inducing excessive infiltration on hillslopes and distorting runoff patterns and sediment fluxes. Runoff and sediment yield decrease systematically with decreasing complexity in watershed representation. However, less complex representations had less impact on runoff and sediment‐yield simulations for small rainfall events. This study concludes that the selection of the appropriate level of watershed representation can have important theoretical and practical implications on runoff and sediment yield modeling in semiarid environments.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.