Seismic fragility analysis of a coupled tank-piping system based on artificial ground motions and surrogate modeling

The catastrophic consequences of recent NaTech events triggered by earthquakes highlighted the inadequacy of standard approaches to seismic risk assessment of chemical process plants. To date, the risk assessment of such facilities mainly relies on historical data and focuses on uncoupled process components. As a consequence, the dynamic interaction between process equipment is neglected. In response to this gap, researchers started a progressive integration of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) risk assessment framework. However, a few limitations still prevent a systematic implementation of this framework to chemical process plants. The most significant are: (i) the computational cost of system-level simulations accounting for coupling between process equipment; (ii) the experimental cost for component-level model validation; (iii) a reduced number of hazard-consistent site-specific ground motion records for time history analyses.In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a recently developed uncertainty quantification-based framework to perform seismic fragility assessments of chemical process plants. The framework employs three key elements: (i) a stochastic ground-motion model to supplement scarcity of real records; (ii) surrogate modeling to reduce the computational cost of system-level simulations; (iii) a component-level model validation based on cost-effective hybrid simulation tests. In order to demonstrate the potential of the framework, two fragility functions are computed for a pipe elbow of a coupled tank-piping system.     

仓面浇筑立体空间冲突致灾过程建模与伤害评价*

为定量评价大坝浇筑过程空间冲突致灾事故后果,通过对缆机运输典型情景进行危害能量运动分解,确定在水平和竖直方向运动方式,阐述危害能量在流动路径相互转化形式;根据能量守恒定律,分析危害能量在吊罐与承灾体碰撞接触之间转移规律,将吊罐与人头部接触过程抽象为带强阻尼的弹簧振子系统,建立危害能量与碰撞冲量相等的动量方程,量化空间冲突致灾后果。结果表明:吊罐坠落危害能量极大,产生的碰撞冲击力与吊罐的运输速度、高度呈正相关,与阻力系数呈负相关,风速、载重对其影响较大。对比2种不同碰撞情景发现,机械碰撞因顶部承载力缓冲,对人头部产生伤害远小于直接碰撞,并对碰撞结果分级评价,研究结果可为大坝浇筑交叉作业空间冲突致灾风险评价提供参考。     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.     

Yield and Water Productivity of Winter Wheat under Various Irrigation Capacities

The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator model validated in a prior study for winter wheat was used to simulate yield, aboveground crop biomass (BM), transpiration (T), and evapotranspiration under four irrigation capacities (ICs) (0, 1.7, 2.5, and 5 mm/day) with two nitrogen (N) application rates (N1, 94 kg N/ha; N2, 160 kg N/ha) to (1) understand the performance of winter wheat under different ICs and (2) develop crop water production function under various ICs and N rates. Evaluation was based on yield, aboveground crop BM, transpiration productivity (TP), crop water productivity (WP), and irrigation WP (IWP). Simulation results showed winter wheat yield increased with increase in N application rate and IC. However, the rate of yield increase gradually reduced with additional irrigation beyond 2.5 mm/day. A 5 mm/day IC required a total of 190 mm irrigation and produced a 5%–16% yield advantage over 2.5 mm/day. This indicates it is possible to reduce groundwater use for wheat by 50% incurring only 5%–16% yield loss relative to 5 mm/day. The TP and IWP for grain were slightly higher under IC of 1.7 mm/day (15.2–16.1 kg/ha/mm and 0.98–1.6 kg/m³) when compared to 5 mm/day (14.7–15.5 kg/ha/mm and 0.6–1.06 kg/m³), respectively. Since TP and IWPs are relatively higher under lower ICs, winter wheat could be a suitable crop under lower ICs in the region. Relationship between yield–T and yield–ET was linear with a slope of 15–16 and 9.5–10 kg/ha/mm, respectively. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of SWAT Impoundment Modeling Methods in Water and Sediment Simulations

Worldwide studies show 80%–90% of all sediments eroded from watersheds is trapped within river networks such as reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands. To represent the impact of impoundments on sediment routing in watershed modeling, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developers recommend to model reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands using impoundment tools (ITs). This study evaluates performance of SWAT ITs in the modeling of a small, agricultural watershed dominated by lakes and wetlands. The study demonstrates how to incorporate impoundments into the SWAT model, and discusses and evaluates involved parameters. The study then recommends an appropriate calibration sequence, i.e., landscape parameters calibration, followed by pond/wetlands calibration, then channel parameter calibrations, and lastly, reservoir parameter calibration. Results of this study demonstrate not following SWAT recommendation regarding modeling water land use as an impoundment depreciates SWAT performance, and may lead to misplaced calibration efforts and model over‐calibration. Further, the chosen method to model impoundments’ outflow significantly impacts sediment loads in the watershed, while streamflow simulation is not very sensitive. This study also allowed calculation of mass accumulation rates in modeled impoundments where the annual mass accumulation rate in wetlands (2.3 T/ha/yr) was 39% higher than mass accumulation rate in reservoirs (1.4 T/ha/yr).     

Modeling and simulation of biogas-fueled power system

The main objective of this paper is to develop a complete model that fully simulate a biogas-fueled power plant which can be used to supply a rural farm with sufficient electricity. The reactor is fed with animal manure of the farm. The proposed model consists of three main parts; a biogas reactor, a microturbine (MT) coupled to a permanent magnet synchronous generator, and a storage system. The model describes the dynamics of an MT and it is suitable for both steady state and transient simulation and analysis. The volume of biogas output delivered from the Anaerobic Digester depends on the reactor volume, reactor temperature, and animal manure type. The storage system is used to store the excess value of biogas if any. It is composed of two parts: a comparator and a storage tank. The comparator compares the volume of biogas produced by the reactor with that needed to supply the load. An adaptive controller is developed to withstand the system against any transient condition such as suddenly load increase/decrease. The proposed model is implemented for chemical and physical behaviors of the biogas production process, as well as for different variables of MT-generator operations. The model is implemented in Matlab/Simulink environment and tested under different operating conditions in both steady state and transient status to study the impacts of different variables on the system output. The output results prove its applicability and effectiveness under different operating conditions.     

A comprehensive approach to API RP 752 and 753 building siting studies

Facility siting studies are an important part of process safety, and are required for facilities that fall under OSHA’s PSM program. Facility siting is frequently interpreted as performing a building siting study which adheres to the guidance given in API RP 752. Building siting may also consider siting of temporary or portable buildings based on the guidance in API RP 753. While both API RP 752 and API RP 753 provide a framework and some guidance for performing building siting studies, they do not provide detailed methodologies or provide guidance on performing a detailed analysis. As a result many building siting studies are inconsistent in their overall approach, or in the way they address hazards. Due to the recent scrutiny applied to building siting studies, more attention has been given to provide evaluations which correctly describe the range of hazards that may affect an occupied building at a petrochemical facility. This paper outlines a comprehensive methodology for performing building siting studies at such facilities. The methodology addresses the applicable hazards and the available tools by which the potential impacts to building occupants can be evaluated.     

Model experiment on the dynamic process of oil leakage from the double hull tanker

This paper presents an experimental investigation on oil leakage from the double hull tanker (DHT). It is designed to explore the dynamic process of oil leakage from bottom-rupture hole of DHT. The experimental test shows the leakage resistance mechanism of ballast tank space. The behavior of oil leakage from damaged DHT and dynamic features of flow in the overall process are demonstrated from experimental results. The overall process of oil leakage is divided into free-leakage and resistance-leakage stage according to the corresponding power to study the dynamic features of oil-water flow inside or outside the tank. The corresponding dominated factors of oil leakage in different stage are also pointed out, and the unsteady Bernoulli’s equation is used to verify experimental results. Meanwhile, viscous effect in leakage process is discussed and the importance of hydrodynamic features associated with the mechanism of oil leakage is explored from experimental results.     

基于观测数据空间化的北京市PM_(2.5)时空分异

PM2.5在地球表面上的变化是连续的,但由于地面海拔起伏和站点分布的相对稀疏,直接内插法很难顾及这种情况。文章运用反距离权重(IDW)、Kriging、经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)、多元回归+残差内插的综合空间化手段,对北京市2015年1月的PM2.5数据进行分析。结果表明:利用多元回归+残差内插方法空间化更优,且PM2.5存在显著的正局部空间自相关,中度以上污染主要分布在北京市东南部和房山区。时间上,PM2.5质量浓度逐时均值呈"W"型。3 h尺度上,PM2.5质量浓度与相对湿度和露点温度正相关,与能见度、大气压和风速负相关,与温度不相关。