基于改进社会力模型的地铁大客流疏散能力研究*

为有效应对大客流情景下人群拥挤对地铁站正常运行带来的影响,采用社会力模型和Anylogic仿真软件,对地铁站大客流疏散能力进行建模和分析,从客观、主观、管理视角分析影响客流疏散能力的因素,基于改进社会力模型刻画行人行为,分析影响地铁车站疏散能力的3个关键因素,并以南宁地铁1号线朝阳广场站为背景进行研究。研究结果表明:行人密度是影响地铁站疏散能力的关键因素,出入口选择策略和行人亲属关系比例对疏散能力影响显著,研究结果可为地铁客流疏散提出针对性建议。     

云南气象灾害的时空分布规律

云南主要的气象灾害有旱灾、洪灾、冷灾、雹灾、风灾和雷灾等6类,它们造成的经济损失超过地震灾害和地质灾害,是云南最大的自然灾害.6种主要气象灾害有明显的时空分布特征.旱灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇东、滇北和滇中地区;洪灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇东南、滇南和滇西南地区;冷灾区主要分布在滇东北、滇西北、滇东和滇中地区;雹灾区主要分布在滇东北、滇东、滇南、滇西北以及滇中局部地区;风灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇南地区;雷灾区主要集中在滇南、滇东南及滇北局部地区.旱灾以春季和初夏最为严重,洪灾主要出现在夏季和秋季,冷灾主要出现在冬春季和夏季,雹灾主要出现在春季和夏季,风灾主要出现在春季和夏季,雷灾主要出现在夏季和春季.     

香港海域表层沉积物重金属空间分析

利用多元统计方法和空间内插值方法分析香港海域表层沉积物重金属的空间分布特征, 为优化香港沉积物重金属监测网络和控制香港地区重金属污染提供支持. 结果表明:①香港海域表层沉积物采样点在D_link/D_max<0.36处明显分为3类, 大致可分别代表轻度、中度、重度污染3种类型;②后退式判别分析具有良好的指标降维能力, 仅需6个显著性重金属指标(Zn, Pb, Cu, Cd, Fe和V)即可反映整个区域重金属空间分布差异性, 且具有84.50%的正确判别率;③基于GIS的反距离权重法(IDW)得到的显著性重金属指标的空间连续分布显示,V和Fe为B组采样点区域的特征元素, Zn, Pb, Cu和Cd在易受人类活动影响地区富集;④显著性指标富集因子的区域多项式内插模拟(LPI)显示,人类活动对Zn, Pb, Cu和Cd分布的强烈影响, 形成以长洲(SS7)、维多利亚湾、吐露港和后海湾为热点逐渐扩散的分布模式.      

The Reynolds transport theorem: Application to ecological compartment modeling and case study of ecosystem energetics

The Reynolds transport theorem (RTT) from mathematics and engineering has a rich history of success in mass transport dynamics and traditional thermodynamics. This paper introduces RTT as a complementary approach to traditional compartmental methods used in ecological modeling and network analysis. A universal system equation for a generic flow quantity is developed into a generic open-system differential expression for conservation of energy. Nonadiabatic systems are defined and incorporated into control volume (CV) and control surface (CS) perspectives of RTT where reductive assumptions in empirical data are then formally introduced, reviewed, and appropriately implemented. Compartment models are abstract, time-dependent systems of simultaneous differential equations describing storage and flow of conservative quantities between interconnected entities (the compartments). As such, they represent a set of flexible and somewhat informal, assumptions, definitions, algebraic manipulations, and graphical depictions subject to influence and selectively parsed expression by the modeler. In comparison, RTT compartment models are more rigorous and formal integro-differential equations and graphics initiated by the RTT universal system equation, forcing an ordered identification of simplifying assumptions, ending with clearly identified depictions of the transfer and transport of conservative substances in physical space and time. They are less abstract in the rigor of their equation development leaving less ambiguity to modeler discretion. They achieve greater consistency with other RTT compartment style models while possibly generating greater conformity with physical reality. Characteristics of the RTT approach are compared with those of a traditional compartment model of energy flow in an intertidal oyster-reef community.     

A Markov model for assessing ecological stability properties

Ecological systems are frequently modeled as dynamic systems. It is natural then to use the techniques of dynamic systems theory to analyze such models. However, the methods and results that are produced by dynamic systems theory do not always capture the aspects of ecological systems that are of greatest interest to managers and decision-makers. We identify some of the challenges of using dynamic systems theory to explore ecological systems and propose an alternative approach that emphasizes the understanding of transient effects in light of uncertainty and variability. We illustrate this method by an examination of a model for phosphorus levels in fresh water lakes.     

Multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for water quality modeling

This paper presents a multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for robust water quality modeling using a neural network (NN) embedded genetic algorithm (GA). The modeling approach uses an adaptive NN–GA framework to inversely solve the governing equations in a water quality model for multiple parameter patterns, along with an alternating fitness method to maintain solution diversity. The procedure was demonstrated through a coupled 2D hydrodynamic and eutrophication model for Loch Raven Reservoir in Maryland. The inverse problem was formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem minimizing the degree of misfit (DOM) between model results and observed data. A set of NN models was developed to approximate the input-output response relationship of the Loch Raven Reservoir model and was incorporated into a GA framework in an adaptive fashion to search for near-optimal solutions minimizing the DOM. The numerical example showed that the adaptive NN–GA approach is capable of identifying multiple parameter patterns that reproduce the observed data equally well. The resulting parameter patterns were incorporated into the numerical model, and a multiple-pattern robust water quality modeling analysis, along with a compound margin of safety (CMOS) method, was proposed and applied to analyze the parameter pattern uncertainty.     

Connectivity or demography: Defining sources and sinks in coral reef fish metapopulations

The identity of an individual patch as a source or a sink within a metapopulation is a function of its ability to produce individuals and to disperse them to other patches. In marine systems patch identity is very often defined by dispersal ability alone—upstream patches are sources—while issues of variable habitat quality (which affects local production) are ignored. This can have important ramifications for the science of marine reserve siting. This study develops a spatially explicit source–sink metapopulation model for reef fish and uses it to evaluate the relative importance of connectivity versus demography and how this depends upon the level of local larval retention and the strength of density-dependent recruitment. Elasticity analyses indicated that patch contribution (source or sink) was more sensitive to demographic parameters (particularly survival) than connectivity and this effect was conserved even under strong levels of density-dependence and was generally strengthened as local retention increased. Variability in the relationship between parameter elasticity and local retention was shown to be dependent upon the magnitude of connectivity for an individual patch relative to a critical connectivity value. The proportion of larvae lost due to transport processes was an important parameter which directly affected the magnitude of this critical connectivity value. Patches with connectivity values less than the critical value contributed to the metapopulation largely via production (i.e., local demographics most important). As local retention increased, so did the importance of demographic parameters in these patches. Patches with connectivity values greater than the critical value contributed largely via dispersal of larvae and thus the importance of local demographics decreased as local retention increased.     

Plant Diversity Hotspots in the Atlantic Coastal Forests of Brazil

Abstract:  Plant-diversity hotspots on a global scale are well established, but smaller local hotspots within these must be identified for effective conservation of plants at the global and local scales. We used the distributions of endemic and endemic-threatened species of Myrtaceae to indicate areas of plant diversity and conservation importance within the Atlantic coastal forests ( Mata Atlântica ) of Brazil. We applied 3 simple, inexpensive geographic information system (GIS) techniques to a herbarium specimen database: predictive species-distribution modeling (Maxent); complementarity analysis (DIVA-GIS); and mapping of herbarium specimen collection locations. We also considered collecting intensity, which is an inherent limitation of use of natural history records for biodiversity studies. Two separate areas of endemism were evident: the Serra do Mar mountain range from Paraná to Rio de Janeiro and the coastal forests of northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia. We identified 12 areas of approximately 35 km² each as priority areas for conservation. These areas had the highest species richness and were highly threatened by urban and agricultural expansion. Observed species occurrences, species occurrences predicted from the model, and results of our complementarity analysis were congruent in identifying those areas with the most endemic species. These areas were then prioritized for conservation importance by comparing ecological data for each.     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

基于CA-Markov模型土地利用对景观格局影响辨识

采用CA-Markov模型方法,研究挠力河流域不同时段土地利用对湿地景观格局干扰强度的差异性.结果表明:(1)流域湿地景观格局变化显著.1967-2000年,挠力河流域湿地类型景观最大斑块指数逐渐减小,耕地和水域斑块的面积周长分维数逐渐减小,而沼泽和居民地的散布与并列指数变大,草甸和耕地聚集度指数增大;湿地景观破碎化程度增加;湿地景观空间分布逐渐由流域周围高地势区向中心河流廊道退缩.(2)流域土地利用变化明显.耕地和居民用地数量迅速增加,耕地趋于集中连片分布,土地利用呈由自然湿地逐渐转化为耕地的变化过程,耕地成为主导的土地利用类型.(3)流域土地利用强度存在阶段差异.1967-2000年,流域内人类活动对湿地景观的干扰强度逐渐加剧,人为景观面积比例由1967年的26.5%上升至2000年的67.8%.土地利用影响强度指数由1967年的1.690上升至2000年的2.394.2000年模拟的流域土地利用影响强度比2000年实际土地利用影响强度小,由此可以识别1983-2000年人类对湿地景观的干扰强度比1967-1983年有所增大;利用居民地和沼泽面积的变化可以识别流域人口增长和排水活动对土地利用影响的时段差异性.