2018—2021年安徽省PM2.5和O3时空分布特征及其健康风险分析

利用2018—2021年安徽省空气质量监测数据分析了PM_2.5和O₃时空分布特征及其引发的健康风险。结果表明:从时间分布来看,2018—2021年安徽省PM_2.5年均值下降25.5%,而O₃-8 h年均值则保持持平;PM_2.5和O₃-8 h月均值具有明显的季节变化特征,PM_2.5月均质量浓度和超标天数均在冬季达到最大值,O₃-8 h月均值和超标天数则在夏季达到最大值。从空间分布来看,PM_2.5、O₃-8 h年均值和超标天数均为皖北最高,其次为皖中,最后为皖南。夏季O₃是主要的健康风险因子,冬季PM_2.5是主要的健康风险因子。当PM_2.5超标时,除2021年皖北地区外(PM₁₀是主要的健康风险因子),PM_2.5均是主要的健康风险因子;当O₃-8 h超标时,O₃是主要的健康风险因子。     

环渤海地区空气质量时空变化特征及动态预测

基于环渤海地区2017—2021年各城市空气质量指数(AQI)、污染物浓度与社会经济数据,利用数理统计、克里金插值法对环渤海地区AQI与污染物浓度的时空变化特征进行分析,运用皮尔逊相关性分析方法探讨AQI与污染物浓度、社会经济因素的相关关系,采用时间序列预测模型对2022年6月—2023年12月空气质量及污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:环渤海地区AQI及污染物浓度大致呈逐年降低的趋势。AQI的逐月变化呈"W"形,O₃浓度的年内变化呈倒"V"形,其余污染物则呈现与O₃相反的变化趋势。AQI大致呈现西南高、东北低的空间分布特点,而污染物浓度分布具有明显的空间差异。环渤海地区5个代表性城市的AQI类别以良好为主,冬季首要污染物主要为PM_2.5、PM₁₀,夏季首要污染物以O₃为主。人口数量是影响AQI的主要因素,城市园林绿地面积对AQI具有一定影响。预测结果显示,未来环渤海地区AQI、主要污染物浓度(O₃除外)均呈现出随时间的推移逐渐下降的变化趋势。     

The impact of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons on the tropospheric budget of carbon monoxide

A method to quantify the relative contributions of surface sources and photochemical production of atmospheric carbon monoxide has been implemented in a three-dimensional chemical-transport model. The impact of biogenic and anthropogenic hydrocarbons has been calculated. The oxidation of isoprene contributes to about 10% of the global tropospheric burden of carbon monoxide, with a maximum contribution over southern America and Africa. Oxidation of methane and terpenes contribute to 28 and 2%, respectively, of the tropospheric burden of CO. The oxidation of the other hydrocarbons, which include ethane, propane, ethylene, propylene and the surrogate hydrocarbon representing other hydrocarbons results in 12% of the CO tropospheric burden, among which 69% results from the oxidation of hydrocarbons of biologic origin. The overall global CO yield from the oxidation of isoprene is estimated to be 23% on a carbon basis. Comparisons between model results and the few available observations of isoprene, terpenes and their oxidation products show that there is no evidence that the current global isoprene emissions proposed in the IGAC/GEIA emissions data base are substantially overestimated, as suggested by previous studies.     

A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

AN EMPIRICALLY‐BASED SEQUENTIAL GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN PROCEDURE1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using a simple, empirically‐based model that makes efficient use of available information has been developed for designing a ground water monitoring well network. A moving plume is described by siting wells in a sequential manner, relying upon two‐dimensional concentration data obtained from previously installed wells to determine the locations of future wells. Data sets from two well known, densely monitored natural gradient tracer studies were used to test the procedure. Plumes defined by all information in the original networks were compared to those defined by reduced networks designed by the new procedure. The new procedure tracked the plumes using only a portion of that information. The new procedure could have reduced the number of wells in the original tests by about 50 percent without appreciable loss of plume information as measured by plume location and extent and by tracer mass.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS‐BASED FLOOD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR FLOODPLAIN MODELING AND DAMAGE CALCULATION1

ABSTRACT: This work presents a flexible system called GIS‐based Flood Information System (GFIS) for floodplain modeling, flood damages calculation, and flood information support. It includes two major components, namely floodplain modeling and custom designed modules. Model parameters and input data are gathered, reviewed, and compiled using custom designed modules. Through these modules, it is possible for GFIS to control the process of flood‐plain modeling, presentation of simulation results, and calculation of flood damages. Empirical stage‐damage curves are used to calculate the flood damages. These curves were generated from stage‐damage surveys of anthropogenic structures, crops, etc., in the coastal region of a frequently flooded area in Chia‐I County, Taiwan. The average annual flood damages are calculated with exceedance probability and flood damages for the designed rainfalls of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year recurrence intervals with a duration of 24 hours. The average annual flood depth in this study area can also be calculated using the same method. The primary advantages of GFIS are its ability to accurately predict the locations of flood area, depth, and duration; calculate flood damages in the floodplain; and compare the reduction of flood damages for flood mitigation plans.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS ON A SEMIARID PONDEROSA PINE HILLSLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Detailed measurements of soil moisture and ET in semiarid forest environments have not been widely reported in the literature. In this study, soil moisture and water balance components were measured over a four‐year period on a semiarid ponderosa pine hillslope, with evapotranspiration (ET) determined as the residual of measured precipitation, runoff, and change in soil moisture storage. ET accounts for approximately 95 percent of the water budget and has a distinctly bimodal annual pattern, with peaks occurring after spring snowmelt and during the late summer monsoon season, periods that coincide with high soil moisture. Weekly growing season ET rates determined by the hillslope water balance are found to be invariably below calculated potential rates. Normalized ET rates are linearly correlated (r²= 0.62) with soil moisture; therefore, a simple linear relation is proposed. Growing season soil moisture dynamics were modeled based on this relation. Results are in fair agreement (r²= 0.63) with the observed soil moisture data over the four growing seasons; however, for two dry summers with little surface runoff, much better results (r² > 0.90) were obtained.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

Chorus model of the synchronizing bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata

Males of the Malaysian bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata synchronize or alternate their cyclically occurring song elements (chirps) in a duet. The acoustic interaction of males interacting in a duet was successfully simulated by means of mutually coupled song oscillators, which respond to a disturbance by a phase shift which is known from the phase response curves (PRCs) of real males. However, little is known about the acoustic interaction of males in a complex chorus situation. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to extend the duet model to a chorus taking into account an inhomogeneous spacing of agents and a natural variability of oscillator properties. This chorus model was used to study oscillator coupling in a chorus consisting of 15 agents. Since such a computer model allows one to simulate chorus manipulations that far exceed the possibilities of behaviour experiments, the following scenarios were simulated: modification of chorus density, sensory bias during sound production, selective attention to only a subset of neighbors and males joining or leaving a chorus. Simulation results allow one to draw conclusions about the chorusing behavior of males in a real chorus and about signaler and receiver aspects influencing chorusing formation and mate choice.     

Testing the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) as a management tool in a shallow temperate estuary of south Europe (Mondego, Portugal)

A long-term monitoring program has been carried out since the early 1990s in the Mondego estuary, on Portugal's west coast, which is presently under heavy human pressure. In this shallow warm-temperate estuary, a significant macroalgal proliferation has been observed, which is a clear sign of nutrient enrichment. As a result of competition with algae, the extension of the seagrass meadows (mainly Zostera noltii) has been reduced. The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) in predicting the tendencies of trophic key-components (macrophytes, macroalgae, benthic macroinvertebrate and wading birds) as a response to the changes in estuarine environmental conditions. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from which management strategies can be designed. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients of environmental changes and was sampled from January 1993 to September 1995 and from December 1998 to December 2005. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between the selected ecological components. The model validation was based on independent data collected from January 1996 to January 1997 and from February 1999 to April 2000 for all the state variables considered. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the trophic dynamics of the studied estuary, by predicting the behavioural pattern for the most part of the components selected, with a focus on the Zostera noltii meadows recovery after the implementation of important management measures.