Risk of miscarriage after transcervical and transabdominal CVS in relation to bacterial colonization of the cervix

Cervieo-genital colonization with micro-organisms poses a potential threat to the pregnancy when transcervical (TC) CVS is performed. In order to evaluate this threat, cervical swabs in 478 patients were obtained and cultured for bacteria, yeasts, and mycoplasmas; chlamydias were detected by an enzyme immunology test. Two hundred and seventy-one patients had CVS (ione transvaginally and 207 underwent transabdominal (TA) CVS. Transvaginal specimens were obtained in 61.6 per cent by forceps biopsy. Overall in 29.9 per cent of patients micro-organisms were detected, the rate and distribution of different species being the same in both groups. There were 36 (7.5 per cent) miscarriages up to 28 weeks of gestation in the combined groups, 29 (10.7 per cent) in the TC-CVS group and 7 (3.4 percent) in the TA-CVS group. When miscarriages occurred after TC-CVS, bacteria/yeasts were involved in 10.3 per cent cif cases and mycoplasmas in 37.9 per cent, this proportion being almost the same in early (<2 weeks) and late (>2 weeks) miscarriages. After TA-CVS, in 28.6 per cent only mycoplasmas, and this only in late miscarriages (> 2 weeks), were involved, accounting for 40 per cent of late miscarriages.     

Detection and delineation of critical areas using echelons and spatial scan statistics with synoptic cellular data

Geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation has become an important area of investigation both in geospatial ecosystem health and in geospatial public health. In order to find critical areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial ecosystem health investigations apply recently discovered echelon tools. In order to find elevated rate areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial public health investigations apply recently discovered spatial scan statistic tools. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a joint role for these together in the spirit of a cross-disciplinary cross-fertilization to accomplish more effective and efficient geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation, and early warning system.     

Can gestational dates routinely derived from very early ultrasound be used to interpret maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein measurements?

This study assesses the reliability of estimating gestational age via crown-rump or gestational sac measurements obtained at 8 weeks' gestation or earlier as part of routine physician office practice. To accomplish this, we studied 88 pregnancies managed at 45 different sites in which both an early first-trimester ultrasonically-derived gestational age estimate and a second-trimester biparietal diameter (BPD) estimate were available. The first-and second-trimester determinations were highly correlated, but the first-trimester determinations were, on average, 0.43 weeks earlier than the second. The first-trimester estimates were satisfactory for use in interpreting maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) screening measurements, but second-trimester BPD measurements obtained prior to MSAFP screening should be the method of choice for interpreting MSAFP values, due to the increased sensitivity for detecting open spina bifida.     

Early amniocentesis: Experience of 222 consecutive patients, 1987–1988

Early amniocentesis from 9 to 14 weeks' gestation provides a safe and accurate method of prenatal diagnosis of cytogenetic and biochemical disorders. There was a 100 per cent success rate in culturing the amniotic cells from 222 samples obtained between 9 and 14 weeks' gestation. Follow-up of the patients to delivery revealed an abortion rate of 1·4 per cent. Among the 207 live- and stillborn infants, only one had a congenital abnormality (bilateral talipes equino-varus) and no infant had respiratory distress syndrome or pneumonia. Eleven pregnancies were terminated following the detection of a chromosomal, biochemical, or congenital abnormality (5·0 per cent). However, before the procedure of early amniocentesis becomes routine clinical practice, it requires appraisal by a randomized clinical trial.     

自组织神经网络在有害赤潮预警研究中的应用

根据非线性理论及有害赤潮的特点，探讨应用人工神经网络原理进行赤潮预警预报的方法，提出网络可塑性较强，无监督的ART－KOHONEN网络模型，阐述了其基本原理和算法。将该模型应用于辽宁省营口市鲅鱼圈海域，结果表明：该方法能较理想地解决无训练样本的分类识别问题，具有较高的精度，可用于有害赤潮的预警预报工作。     

Cytogenetic analysis of 1375 amniotic fluid specimens from pregnancies with gestational age less than 14 weeks

Our laboratory has received 1375 early amniotic fluid (EA) specimens during the past 5-year period for cytogenetics analysis. The gestational ages of the EA specimens were less than 14 weeks as estimated by ultrasound. The average volume of specimen received was 16 ml. Specimens were typically received in two collection tubes and cultured in Chang A and in supplemented MEM media using the in situ technique. Of the 1375 EA specimens received, 1356 were successfully cultured and yielded results. Abnormal results were found in 67 (4.9 per cent) of the cases. Nineteen specimens (1.4 per cent) failed to yield a result. The mean turn-around time (TAT) for all EA specimens was 8.28 days. In 1991, the average TAT for the EA specimens was 8.00 days compared with a TAT of 6.59 days for all specimens received over 14 weeks gestational age. The number of EA specimens received has increased from 1.5 per month in 1986 to 57 per month in 1991. In summary, our experience with EA specimens for cytogenetic analysis has demonstrated that the success rate is 98.6 per cent and that an increasing number of obstetricians are performing early amniocentesis as they seek to provide their patients with earlier results and an alternative to chorionic villus sampling.     

Early prenatal ultrasonic findings in klippel—trenaunay—weber syndrome

Routine sonography prior to genetic amniocentesis revealed the presence of a large complex mass with pulsating channels over the anterior fetal chest wall. This led to early termination of pregnancy in a fetus affected with the rare Klippel-Trenaunay-Weber Syndrome.     

基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型及应用——以祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段为例

针对区域生态安全预警中的不确定性问题,考虑生态安全等级边界信息的随机性、模糊性及动态性,利用可拓学中兼具定性和定量分析及动态性的物元理论和具有不确定推理特性的云模型,提出了基于可拓云模型的区域生态安全预警模型;运用该模型对祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年生态安全进行了定量评估,并对2017年生态安全环境进行动态预警。结果表明:祁连山生态功能区张掖段2005—2015年的生态安全整体水平均处于"理想"以下,其变化趋势为"较差"到"一般"再到"良好";2017年祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全为"蓝色"预警,但有向"黄色"转变的趋势,其中工业三废、环保投入强度、森林覆盖率及人均水资源量是影响祁连山冰川与水源涵养生态功能区张掖段生态安全的主要因素。     

基于统计-FloodArea模型的平原水网区致灾临界雨量研究

论文基于江苏老濉河流域降水、水位和流量观测数据,利用统计-FloodArea模型相结合的方法计算了平原水网区致灾临界雨量。从水位变幅角度构建了流域不同时段累计面雨量-洪水涨幅统计模型,并计算出致灾临界雨量。在修订河道高程的基础上,利用FloodArea模型模拟典型暴雨洪涝事件的动态淹没过程,建立不同时段累计面雨量与模拟水位涨幅之间的幂函数关系,计算出另一组致灾临界雨量。对比发现两组致灾临界雨量基本一致,24 h三个等级致灾临界雨量对应泗洪气象站167 a、17 a和2 a一遇降水量。统计模型能较好地捕捉短时降水与洪水涨幅的关系,FloodArea模型则更好地反映了长历时暴雨洪涝事件的雨洪关系,整合两种方法,可得到更科学的平原水网区暴雨洪涝致灾临界雨量。     

基于BP神经网络和SVR的Fund?o尾矿坝排水数据预测对比研究

针对尾矿库运行过程中安全预警问题,选取2015年巴西Samarco铁矿溃坝事故案例,研究BP神经网络和SVR方法在排水数据预测的适用性。综合分析了排水数据的复杂且非线性的特点,以库水位、降雨量和干滩长度为输入特征,采用上述2个模型对尾矿坝排水数据进行预测。研究结果表明:基于BP神经网络预测结果的最大相对误差不高于4.35%;基于SVR算法的最大相对误差不高于9.21%;Fundo坝的排水预测结果是可行的,BP神经网络的预测精度更高,而SVR模型的运算速度更快。研究结果可为矿山安全工作的快速响应和溃坝预警提供信息支撑和参考依据。