企业财务危机预警判断分析方法研究

财务危机是威胁企业持续经营的根本性危机,它不是突然而至,分为潜伏期、爆发期、成长期和解决期四个阶段逐步积累过程.根据不同阶段的企业财务状况,把爱德华.阿特曼Z值计分模型和不同时期的相关财务指标结合起来,运用定量和定性相结合的分析方法,判断分析企业的财务危机的级别,从而采取相应的措施,以利于规避财务风险.     

工程项目安全预警与应急控制隐性知识集成与共享研究

针对一些企业在安全预警、风险控制等方面的隐性知识难以集成、个体知识难以转换为组织知识、内部员工难以共享、行业组织之间难以交流等一系列问题,笔者从知识管理观念、隐性知识集成与共享激励制度、知识共享文化、知识管理组织系统、知识共享和知识交易平台等方面入手,构建了适应于工程项目安全预警与应急控制的隐性知识集成与共享系统。该研究成果为工程师们缩短在紧急状态下的应急补救决策时间,提升其对质量安全事故控制能力,提供了切实可行的实践思路。     

Atmospheric Loadings,Concentrations and Visibility Associated with Sandstorms: Satellite and Meteorological Analysis

This Korea-China study monitored the phenomena of sandstorms and significant dustfall (SD) from 1997 to 2000. The analysis of our data included ground measurements of dust concentration, visibility, satellite imagery, aircraft and lidar observations. In addition, an estimation of atmospheric loadings and a studyon the relationship between dust concentrations and visibilitywere carried out. The movement and invasion of dust clouds toKorea were clearly identified with meteorological and satellitedata. The increasing concentrations of TSP and PM₁₀ concurredwell with the satellite information. From case studies, weestimated that atmospheric loadings of a dust cloud were over 1million ton and that the deposition over the Korean Peninsulawas in the range from 46 000 to 86 000 tons. For SD withvisibility of 3 km, we predict TSP 659 g m^-3 and PM₁₀ 493 g m^-3. We recommend the issuance of an SD Watch(advisory) and an SD Warning for the general public.     

昭通地区滑坡泥石流预警系统及其减灾效益分析

阐述了昭通地区滑坡泥石流预警系统的由来与建立。该系统5a成功预报了11起滑坡泥石流灾害,419人幸免于难,预报成功率达58％。表明了在滑坡泥石流点多面广、灾情严重的地区建立预警系统是一条费省效宏的有效路子。     

突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制

借鉴SARS事件的经验教训,探讨了如何加快构建突发性地震灾害危机的预测预警、应急处理、信息发布和宣传教育等四个方面的管理机制,并提出了建立地震灾害预警等级及其相应的应急预案和信息发布措施的新思维.     

Assessment of chemical process hazards in early design stages

A new method called SREST-layer-assessment method with automated software tool is presented that in a hierarchical approach reveals the degree of non-ideality of chemical processes with regard to SHE (safety, health and environment) aspects at different layers: the properties of the chemical substances involved (substance assessment layer (SAL)), possible interactions between the substances (reactivity assessment layer (RAL)), possible hazard scenarios resulting from the combination of substances and operating conditions in the various equipments involved (equipment assessment layer (EAL)), and the safety technologies that are required to run a process safely and in accordance with legal regulations (safety-technology assessment layer (STAL)). In RAL, EAL and STAL the main focus is put on process safety. A case study is used to show the principles of the method. It is demonstrated how the method can be used as a systematic tool to support chemical engineers and chemists in evaluating chemical process safety in early process development stages.     

Study on the early stage of runaway reaction using Dewar vessels

In this paper, compared with a UN cylindrical 500 mL Dewar (H.4 in the UN tests), a spherical 1 L Dewar vessel was used to study the early stages of runaway reactions of several liquid and solid samples, including three organic peroxides and a reactive material. The samples were filled in the vessels and the temperature profiles versus times at different positions of the samples were measured. As a result, the minimum temperatures, defined as the SADT, were averagely 10 K lower than those measured in the cylindrical Dewar vessels. At the same time, the temperature profiles of solids in the spherical Dewars tended to be homogeneous. The heat transfer coefficient of a spherical Dewar is only 0.18 W/K/m, one-eighth of a conventional cylindrical Dewar vessel. Meanwhile it has a low phi factor. These factors are essential to simulate low heat loss bulk conditions in the equilibrium process and at the early stage of a runaway reaction. To characterize the ability of the adiabaticity of a storage vessel, it can be seen that a spherical Dewar could simulate the plant process having critical storage size of a reactive-material, r₀, approximately 0.6 m. It is recommended that such a technique is used to investigate the SADT of an unstable material in larger scale packaging or a material with very weak heat release in industry.     

铁路汛期行车安全对策——雨量警戒制度研究

雨量警戒制度是铁路部门用于指导进行汛期警戒 ,确保线路汛期行车安全的一种安全保障制度 ,由警戒标准、防御标准和管理制度 3部分组成。它是一种分级、分段和各工种联控执行的警戒制度 ,其技术关键包括警戒标准和防御标准的制定。本文提出了雨量警戒制度警戒标准的指标体系 ,建立了警戒标准的制定方法与工作程式 ,并以成昆铁路雨量警戒制度的制定与实施说明了其应用。所提方法对铁路部门制定汛期行车安全对策具有普适意义。     

区域能源与大气环境污染宏观控制预警指标研究

调研、剖析了国内外能源弹性系数,找出能源弹性系数正常值.选择能源弹性系数对区域能源与大气环境宏观控制做预警研究,并进行实例分析.结果表明,能源弹性系数K的正常值是0.5,如果某区域的K值连续3年以上持续大于0.8,则表明该区域的能源需求量增长过快,相应地环境中的大气污染物的排放量也增长过快,使该区域的能源需求和环境污染治理面临巨大的压力.因此可以把K值作为区域能源与大气污染宏观控制的预警指标,同时也可以作为城市的考核指标.我国2001-2004年连续4年的能源生产(或消费)弹性系数在1～1.7之间,远远超过了正常值,应发出预警信号,查找原因,迅速改变目前的经济增长模式.      

基于指标气体关联分析的煤自燃分级预警研究

为准确预警煤炭自然发火,基于程序升温试验,获得指标气体与温度间的关系,并将起始温度V0和特征温度点V1、V2、V3时刻的碳氧化物比率作为预警界限,设定4级预警机制,采用灰色关联分析法关联性分析采空区和上隅角CO气体体积分数和碳氧化物比率,按照关联等级的高低细化4级预警机制,同时选取典型案例,详细展示该预警机制下的预警流...