饮用水在线监测及预警研究

饮用水是人类生存的基本需求之一,其安全是影响人民生命健康和社会经济可持续发展的重要因素.在取水、制水、输配水和贮水各个环节对饮用水水质的卫生指标进行实时动态监测及预警,可有效预防因为自然灾害、人为事故、犯罪引起的用水安全事故的发生.文章概述了水质在线监测系统在从水源到用户的全流程的应用,并对饮用水在线监测与预警各种关键技术的应用予以简单的介绍.     

基于系统动力学的辽宁省生态安全预警研究

基于P—S—R框架建立辽宁省城市生态安全预警评价指标体系,在此基础上,利用系统动力学方法构建辽宁省城市“资源-人口-经济-社会-环境”复合系统的生态安全预警模型,通过VENSIM仿真2010年至2020年的辽宁省城市生态安全预警指标趋势值,运用综合评价法对辽宁省14个城市进行生态安全预警评价。结果表明,未来10年生态安全预警评价结果分为3类：生态安全区、生态安全持续危险区和生态退化区。生态持续危险区和生态退化区属于生态安全预警区域,主要集中在辽宁省西北部。从辽宁省生态安全动态变化看,未来生态安全形势比较严峻。仿真结果表明基于系统动力学的生态安全预警结果可为辽宁省城市发展与建设提供一定的理论依据。     

大型起重机械安全预警机制的研究

根据现有安全预警理论以及起重机械使用过程中存在的问题,提出建立起重机危险源辨识和报警的机制。该机制由先进的测试与分析系统、高素质的研究型人才、企业单位的配合与支持以及足够的经费4部分支撑,利用实时监控,数据分析,警报处理和修理排除故障4个环节的循环运行,使得安全监控与起重机作业同步进行。起重机安全预警机制的引入,可降低起重机械的使用风险,延长设备的使用寿命并提高经济效益,也是起重机安全运行的一个必然趋势。     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Cytogenetic studies of amniotic fluid taken before the 15th week of pregnancy for earlier prenatal diagnosis: A report of 114 consecutive cases

One hundred and fourteen samples of amniotic fluid taken before 15 weeks of gestation were cultured for cytogenetic studies. The results of culturing these early amniotic fluid (EAF) samples were compared with the results of culturing 114 standard amniotic fluid (SAP) samples taken after 15 weeks of gestation matched for maternal age and received in the laboratory within the same week. Cell culture was successful in all 114 of the EAF samples and in 111 SAP samples. There was no significant difference in the days to harvesting and days to reporting in the two groups. Three samples of SAP failed to grow and two EAF samples produced tetraploid karyotypes, so that in these five cases amniocentesis had to be repeated. These problems were attributed to toxicity of a fungicide used in the culture medium. Pseudomosaicism was noted in two EAF samples and one SAP sample; and maternal cell contamination was noted in one EAF and one SAP sample. Thus, culturing and karyotyping cells harvested from EAF and SAP are similar, indicating that EAF samples from 12–14-week pregnancies could be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

化工企业废水污染源在线监控预警阈值确定方法研究

为解决我国污染源在线监控数据缺乏深层次利用、监测数据对污染源不能有效预警的状况,对企业日常污水排放的污染物进行监控预警,综合运用层次分析法和频次分析法,分别确立了在线监控预警的指标体系和污水排放不同警情的阈值范围,并以某化工厂12个月的在线监测数据为案例对方法进行了验证.分析结果表明,某化工厂污染源废水中ρ（氰化物）在0~0.50 mg/L之间,其中88.54%的监控数据分布范围为0~0.20 mg/L,均未超过GB 8978—1996《污水综合排放标准》Ⅱ级标准限值;ρ（COD_Cr）在3.51~499.17 mg/L之间,其中51.74%的数据分布在>300~400 mg/L之间,接近GB 8978—1996 Ⅲ级标准限值,出水ρ（COD_Cr）偏高;ρ（NH₄+-N）在0~45 mg/L之间,均未超过GB 8978—1996 Ⅱ级标准限值,其中91.13%的数据低于30 mg/L,出水ρ（NH₄+-N）较低.对确定的预警阈值方法验证结果表明:①依据权重值的大小最终筛选出氰化物、COD_Cr及NH₄+-N为预警指标.②某化工厂氰化物在排放正常、一般、不正常及极不正常状态对应的阈值范围分别可设为40%频次、30%频次、5%频次及超过5%频次所对应的浓度范围;COD_Cr和NH₄+-N各状态对应阈值浓度范围一致,均为50%频次、40%频次、5%频次及超过5%频次对应的数值.研究显示,基于在线监测数据并结合相关标准、化工企业排污风险特征和化工厂的生产特征及工艺等基本条件,提出利用频次分析法确定化工厂各采样时刻不同警情阈值的方法较为科学合理.      

基于典型相关系数和随机森林的水质预警方法

针对突发水污染事件提出一种高精度的预警方法.首先,通过模拟实验建立包含22种常见污染物的突发水污染事件数据库,然后采用典型相关系数准确揭示污染事件发生后多元水质参数之间的协同反馈规律.最后,基于多参数协同反馈规律构建“典型相关系数-随机森林”水质预警模型.结果表明预警模型对已知和未知污染物的平均准报率分别为96.78%和98.33%,对水质监测基线的平均误报率为0.16%.本研究成果可为降低突发水污染事件损失和保障供水安全提供有效的技术支撑.     

泥石流早期识别与监测预警研究进展探讨

近年来,受极端地震和极端天气的影响,泥石流灾害日益加剧,山区城镇泥石流风险问题逐渐引起大众的关注。泥石流的早期识别和监测预警作为防灾减灾的有效途径之一,已在山区城镇及重大工程建设区发挥重要的减灾作用。分析总结泥石流早期识别与监测预警技术方法和理论的目的在于掌握其发展现状与问题,进一步为山区城镇泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供有效应急对策。同时指出改进当前存在问题可为后期发展提供参考依据。本文通过文献综述法在阅读大量文献基础上,从技术与设备、预警理论与模型和监测预警体系3个方面对泥石流早期识别和监测预警研究进行回顾与评述,并针对其不足提出了加强深度学习在泥石流早期识别中运用,注重构建地面因素与天上因素耦合的泥石流预警模型,完善泥石流灾害应急系统的初步看法。     

Residual road departure crashes after full deployment of LDW and LDP systems

Abstract

Objective: Road departures are one of the most severe crash modes in the United States. To help reduce this risk, vehicles are being introduced in the United States with lane departure warning (LDW) systems, which warn the driver of a departure, and lane departure prevention (LDP) systems, which assist the driver in steering back to the roadway. Previous studies have estimated that LDW/LDP systems may prevent one third of drift-out-of-lane road departure crashes. This study investigates the crashes that were not prevented, to potentially set research priorities for next-generation road departure prevention systems.

Methods: The event data recorder (EDR) data from 128 road departure crashes in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) from 2011 to 2015 were mapped onto the vehicle trajectory and simulated with LDW/LDP to assess the potential for crash avoidance. The model predicted that 63–83% of single-vehicle road departure crashes may not be prevented by an LDW system and 49% may not be prevented by an LDP system.

Results and Conclusions: For LDP systems, which were assumed to have zero latency, no crashes were avoided if the time-to-collision (TTC) from lane crossing to impact was less than 0.55?s. Obstacles such as guardrails and traffic barriers, which tend to be very close to the road, were more common among the remaining crashes. The study shows that LDW/LDP systems are limited by two factors, driver reaction time and TTC to the roadside object. Thus, earlier driver response and longer TTC may help in these situations.     

环境与经济形势的景气分析研究

为了识别社会经济发展对环境的影响,借鉴宏观经济景气分析的方法,构建了环境与经济形势景气分析框架.在识别影响环境发展态势的主要社会经济要素的基础上,构建环境与经济景气分析指标体系,并划分出针对污染物排放的先行和一致性指标,同时对其进行景气指数分析,预测预警未来环境的发展态势.应用该方法对全国大气环境SO2排放展开景气分析.2008年大气环境景气分析一致扩散指数为71.43,处于景气区间;合成指数为99.53,相对于2002年总体上呈下降趋势;社会经济发展对环境呈景气影响.但是先行扩散指数跌至不景气区间,部分指标出现环境不景气的变化趋势,会影响未来SO2减排.因此,需要进一步关注各预警指标的景气动向,通过控制重污染行业的产值比重及固定资产投资增长率,提高能源利用效率,优化能源消费结构,保证社会经济同环境的协调发展.