Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

Models of best practice in flood risk communication and management

Risk communication plays an increasingly central role in flood risk management, but there is a variety of conflicting advice about what does – and should – get transmitted, why, how, and to whom. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the underlying normative and conceptual models on which those competing assessments of ‘good’ risk communication depend. To that end, the paper identifies four broad models, or approaches, to risk communication: a risk message model of information transfer; a risk instrument model of behavioural change; a risk dialogue model of participatory deliberation; and a risk government model of self-regulation and normalization. These models differ in their theoretical and disciplinary origins and associated philosophical and political commitments, and consequently they define the basic purpose, practice, and future prospects of flood risk communication in quite different ways. Unless these different models of ‘good’ risk communication are acknowledged and understood, efforts to identify best practice for flood risk management are likely to produce inconsistent, if not contradictory, recommendations.     

Resilience in the context of tsunami early warning systems and community disaster preparedness in the Indian Ocean Region

This paper discusses insights from post-tsunami early warning system (EWS) development in Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia by analysing selected elements of resilience, based on the Coastal Community Resilience (CCR) framework, and by distinguishing between the cognitive, normative and procedural dimensions of EWSs. The findings indicate that (1) recent calls to develop participatory and people-centred EWSs as promoted by the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005—2015 have not been sufficiently translated into action in the implementation of national policies and strategies for early warning; (2) policy and guidance places significantly more emphasis on the procedural compared to the normative and cognitive dimensions of EWSs; (3) practitioners engaged in early warning and disaster risk reduction operate in contexts shaped by multiple stakeholder agendas and face considerable challenges in negotiating diverse needs and priorities; and (4) few platforms currently exist that enable stakeholders to coordinate and reconcile agendas, negotiate joint targets, share knowledge and critically reflect on lessons learnt, and to improve the integration of early warning with other priorities such as livelihoods improvement, natural resource management and community development.     

海上钻井平台安全风险预警模型应用研究

2010年美国墨西哥湾“深水地平线”钻井平台爆炸和2011年我国蓬莱钻井平台井涌事故,引发社会各界对海上钻井平台安全问题的关注.介绍了海洋钻井平台的组成结构,对海洋钻井平台的危险源进行了系统辨识,试图通过对海上钻井平台作业现场危险因素加以观察,诊断、分析警源、警情,警兆,警级,结合专家意见,从人员、设施设备、安全管理、工程地质、海上环境等几个方面建立海上钻井平台安全风险预警体系,采用改进的层次分析法,得出指标权重,构建海洋钻井平台安全风险预警模型,得到量化的预警结果.并通过对某钻井平台的实例分析,提出安全风险的预控对策,以期本模型对海上钻井平台的事故的发生起到一定的防范作用.     

基于ISO 26262的车道偏离预警系统概念设计与仿真

以道路车辆功能安全规范标准ISO 26262为准则,对汽车的车道偏离预警系统（LDWS）进行了概念设计。首先分析了ISO 26262功能安全规范概念阶段的活动内容,并在此基础上,完成车道偏离预警系统的项目定义、危险分析和评估,设计了功能安全概念的相关工作,确定了功能安全等级和安全目标。最后搭建了UML仿真模型对LDWS概念设计阶段进行仿真测试,测试结果表明此设计能够满足ISO 26262规范标准,实现了车道偏离预警系统的功能安全概念设计,对车道偏离预警系统的安全开发具有指导意义。     

震源车主动防侧翻预警系统研

为了防止震源车在野外行驶过程中发生侧翻事故,实现对震源车危险状态的提前预警,迫切需要开展震源车主动防侧翻预警系统研究。基于震源车不同工况下的侧倾稳定性分析,结合国内外现有车辆侧翻预警指标特点,采用多级判断原则,建立了一种能综合判断不同行驶工况的震源车侧翻预警指标A和主动防侧翻预警系统,并通过MATLAB/simulink软件对该预警系统进行仿真模拟分析。研究结果表明:震源车侧倾稳定性随转弯速度、转向角、坡度角等参数的增大而呈现降低趋势;同时,该预警系统能通过侧翻预警指标A实现对震源车平路转向和斜坡转向过程中的行驶状态进行准确判断,并发出不同级别的声光报警。此研究将为进一步开展震源车预警系统的试验研究奠定理论基础。     

海外石油工程公共安全风险预警方法研究

近年来,我国海外石油工程项目蓬勃发展的同时,面临公共安全极大挑战。现阶段我国石油企业的公共安全风险管理体系不尽完善,此方面的研究重点主要集中在应急救援等领域,为了及时应对复杂多变的公共安全风险,开展公共安全风险预警研究有着重要的现实意义。综合考虑现阶段海外石油工程项目面临的公共安全风险现状,从社会安定、自然灾害、公共卫生、事故灾难和综合管理五个方面系统分析其存在的公共安全风险,借助层次分析法和模糊综合评判,建立并计算公共安全风险预警指标体系的标准权重,确定预警评判集,最终提出一种海外石油工程公共安全风险预警方法,并给出应用步骤。将该风险预警方法运用到非洲某国,结果显示,与实际高度吻合,具有实际应用价值。     

庆安县绿色食品产地环境质量预警研究

绿色食品产地环境质量预警是对自然变化、人类活动影响所引起的环境质量恶化进行预测,并及时提出警告.本文以国家级生态农业示范区庆安县的绿色食品产地为例,依据1993-2003年庆安县绿色食品产地环境质量监测数据及其状态转移矩阵,采用马尔可夫链模型预测未来5年环境质量状态发生概率,对该研究区进行环境质量负向演化预警研究.结果发出了巨宝村、东阳村和泥河农场的环境质量负向演化的预警信号.据此进行了警因分析并提出排警建议,为环境规划和管理部门提供科学治理依据和辅助决策.     

人工神经网络模型在水质预警中的应用研究进展

水质预警模型是大数据时代构建环境智能决策与管理体系的关键技术.近年来,水质自动化监测能力的提升以及测管协同对环境模型的强烈需求,激发了研究人员探索新的建模方法并努力提高模型预测性能.其中,人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)模型发展迅速.本文综述了3大类ANN模型的发展历史和模型结构特点,梳理了ANN模型在水质数据软测量、数据异常检测和时间序列预测等方面的研究进展,归纳了一般建模流程、技术建议和常用的模型性能指标,发现ANN模型的应用依赖于监测数据质量,存在模型可解释性差、模型运行硬件资源要求较高等不足,提出未来水质预警模型的研发思路和重点,需要加快推进水环境监测技术与预警模型的协同发展和业务化应用,通过多种应用场景检验实现技术迭代,形成大数据驱动的水质在线监测-智能预警-应急管理支撑体系,助力我国环境治理能力现代化.     

Predicting self-evacuation in Australian bushfire

Australian bushfire safety policy does not require mandatory evacuation from bushfire as practiced in North America and other jurisdictions. Australian householders confronted with a bushfire threat must decide whether they remain and defend their property or evacuate. A better understanding of factors that influence householders’ decisions to self-evacuate can inform bushfire safety policy. Studies have identified variables that motivate evacuation from various hazards, including wildfire, but factors shaping the decision processes are not well understood. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a theoretical framework of factors influencing protective response to hazard to analyse the actions of householders affected by two bushfires. Three factors that predict self-evacuation were identified: the perception that evacuation is effective in protecting personal safety; the receipt of official warnings; and perceived threat to property. These findings reinforce the importance of increasing householder awareness and sensitivity to the danger posed by bushfire; the adequacy of people’s bushfire preparedness; the effectiveness of early evacuation in protecting personal safety; and the potential persuasiveness of accurate, relevant and timely official warning messages in influencing safe evacuation from bushfire.