Disaster warning and evacuation responses by private business employees

When people are advised that their place of employment is threatened with disaster, how do they respond? Interviews with employees (n=406) of 118 businesses affected by one of seven recent disasters provide the first answers to this question. Multivariate analyses document the key variables that best predict variation are: 1) emergent perceptions of risk; 2) time of evacuation from work; 3) time of evacuation from home; 4) multiple evacuations; and 5) tension between work and family commitments. When warned of impending disaster, most employees initially responded with denial. Gradually, however, emergent perceptions of risk intensified especially among those living in communities in which the least amount of disaster planning had occurred or who resided in a mobile home or apartment. Highest levels of work and family tensions during these evacuations were reported by racial minority employees who had children living at home. Policy implications for these and other findings are discussed so as to pin‐point changes business managers should make that will enable them to provide the leadership and compassion expected by employees.     

宁夏汛期地质灾害气象预报预警模型研究

利用近20a宁夏地质灾害及降水资料分析了宁夏地质灾害分布规律,研究了降雨与地质灾害发生的关系,发现连续性降水、短时强降水和暴雨是造成地质灾害的主要气象诱因,并介绍了宁夏汛期地质灾害潜势预报模型及2004年试运行情况.     

我国气象灾害的分类与防灾减灾对策

本文根据气象灾害特征、致灾因子和天气现象类型,将我国的气象灾害划分为7大类20种.为了适应科学防灾减灾和社会、经济快速发展的需求,必须加快大气监测、信息加工和气象灾害预警能力为主要内容的气象现代化建设;加强气象灾害的机理研究;制定科学防灾减灾对策.     

PRE-WARNING OF THE UPLAND ECOSYSTEM IN THE THREE-GORGE RESERVOIR AREA

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A comparative analysis between temperature and pressure measurements for early detection of runaway initiation

In this work, we have analysed the use of pressure instead of temperature measurements for the early warning detection of runaway initiation. This is possible due to the fact that our runaway criterion, i.e. div>0, does not depend specifically on which state space variable we are using for divergence calculation. A series of runaway experiments, carried out in a 250 l pilot-scale reactor, has been used to compare the results. In accordance with previous analysis, we show that by using temperature, early detection of runaway initiation is achieved. Analogously to temperature, pressure may be also used for runaway detection. By comparing the different types of reactive systems analysed (vapour and gassy), it can be observed that temperature works better, in terms of earlier detection, than pressure but the differences are more pronounced for vapour than for gassy systems.     

海塘工程安全分析与防台抗潮决策支持技术

风暴潮期间海塘工程的安全是防汛工作的重要问题。本文对海塘工程安全的影响因素进行了分析，提出了海塘工程安全预警的思路，并将决策支持系统这一新技术引入防台抗潮的决策工作中，以提高决策人的决策能力。     

中国湿地生态质量预警研究

简要介绍了中国湿地的特点、主要类型、开发利用现状以及中国湿地生态环境面临的主要问题;分析了湿地生态系统的整体性、结构的复杂性、调控的滞后性、系统的脆弱性与敏感性等4个基本特征,指出了开展湿地生态质量预警研究的理论与实践意义,阐述了湿地生态质量预警系统所包含的警义、警情、警源、警兆、警度和预测模型等基本内容,并提出了构建中国湿地生态质量预警系统的基本思路和方法。     

江苏省循环经济发展预警系统研究--以江苏省为例

本文利用层次分析．去和灰色关联分析的原理，借鉴循环经济发展评价指标体系，建立预警模型，对循环经济的预警作初步尝试。通过对江苏省循环经济发展预警的实证，得出：该模型能从定量的角度准确地度量出江苏省经济发展模式偏离循环经济运行模式的程度。在此基础上，对未来江苏省循环经济发展状况作出明确的警度界定。本文目的在于尝试构建循环经济发展预警系统的框架，从而为循环经济发展预警的定量研究提供一个新的思路。     

湘北华容地区小墨山花岗岩体SHRIMPU—Pb年龄及地球化学特征

小墨山岩体侵位于中元古代冷家溪群中,由两期侵入体组成,早期为粗中粒—中粒斑状黑云母二长花岗岩;末期为细粒黑(二)云母二长花岗岩。通过锆石SHRIMP U-Pb法测得岩体侵位年龄为122.5±2.1 Ma(2σ),MSWD=1.9,成岩时代为早白垩世。主元素中,SiO2变化于67.20%~75.16%,K2O含量高,且K2O>Na2O,K2O/Na2O为1.16~1.72;ASI值变化于0.96~1.10之间,平均1.02,属准铝质-微过铝质、高钾钙碱性系列。岩石明显富集大离子亲石元素,亏损高场强元素,Rb/Sr=0.27~15.13;Nb/Ta=15.9~17.1,为锶和铌亏损型。ΣREE总体较高,重稀土含量相对较高,轻重稀土分馏稍弱,ΣCe/ΣY为0.49~6.18,(La/Yb)N为0.66~15.54。有较高的εNd(t),为-6.8~-8.7;T2DM相对较小(1.47~1.62 Ga)。综合研究表明,小墨山花岗岩石为壳源型富黑云母过铝花岗岩类(CPG),其成因应为下地壳物质和上地壳物质混合而成,与花岗岩底侵作用或注入地壳中的幔源岩浆有关,形成的构造背景为陆内挤压造山向非造山转换的后造山拉张环境,是在...     

河道溢油模型在三峡水质预警系统中的研究与应用

为使三峡水质预警系统有效模拟预测三峡溢油事故,建立了适应该系统的平面二维河道溢油模型。常见溢油模拟的做法是在溢油自身扩展阶段采用Fay模型、在溢油飘移阶段采取油粒子模型,而文章使用根据Fay模型进行扩展之后的油粒子模型,该模型可在溢油的自身扩展和漂移阶段同时使用。该模型结合了油粒子模型和Fay模型的长处,既解决Fay模型只能用于静止海面上的限制,又解决了油粒子模型不能模拟溢油自身扩展阶段的难题,特别适用于水域相对海洋狭小且形状复杂,水流也较复杂的河流溢油模拟。将其运用为三峡水质预警系统的溢油模拟模块,取得了较好的效果。