俄罗斯森林火灾对我国的启示

简要介绍了俄罗斯森林大火的人员和财产损失,分析了森林火灾肆虐产生的根源在于气候变化、民众缺乏防火意识、当地官员渎职缺位、救灾工作准备不足、救灾力量建设滞后以及＂人祸＂大于＂天灾＂,指出了俄罗斯森林火灾给我国的几点警示和几点启示。     

水环境安全预警系统构建探析

从水环境安全预警系统相关概念出发,阐述了预警系统建立的作用与意义,提出预警系统构建的总体框架和系统的3个主要组成层面,即技术层、信息层和用户层;指出预警系统构建的关键性问题为指标体系的建立、预警模型的选择以及预警安全阈值的确定;提出水环境安全预警系统研究中值得进一步关注的几个问题。     

短时大暴雨的多普勒雷达探测及暴雨预警信号发布

本文通过对环流背景和广州CINRAD-SA多普勒天气雷达资料的详细分析,探讨了发生在广州市的一次短时大暴雨的成因.结果表明：广州市夏季短时大暴雨在低空急流、低层辐合以及高空辐散和抽吸作用的有利环流背景下,多个单体接连穿越同一地区所造成,单体排列方向与单体移动方向一致.弱中气旋特征、逆风区和能量锋对对流的维持和加强起到了十分重要的作用.另外本文还对暴雨预警信号的发布技巧进行了探讨.     

人群聚集拥挤度的量化表征方法

为有效识别人群聚集区域并量化拥挤人群聚集程度,构建全新的人群聚集拥挤度量化表征方法,归纳总结“人群拥挤度”定义,计算不同条件人群的个人间距并分析其分布特征,基于人群个人间距提出“个体聚集度”和人群“聚集拥挤度”计算方法,并对上海城隍庙豫园内九曲桥的一段入口区域进行实例分析。研究结果表明：人群规模和密度并不能完全真实反映群体拥挤程度,但通过人群个体间距概率分布和累积概率分布可以识别人群的局部聚集现象,基于个人间距的人群聚集度量化方法能够有效地衡量人群局部聚集程度和整体聚集情况,研究结果可为人群风险监测预警提供参考。     

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.     

Developmental stress impairs song complexity but not learning accuracy in non-domesticated zebra finches (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Taeniopygia guttata</Emphasis>)

Food restrictions early in life can have adverse effects on the development of adult avian song structure. Nutritional deficiencies during brain development are thought to impair the growth of neural circuits responsible for learning and production of song in adulthood. Thus, the quality of song may reflect the quality of the singer due to the costs associated with neural development early in life. Recent investigations have focused on domesticated laboratory strains of zebra finches where early dietary deficiencies have significantly reduced the complexity of song and its sexual attractiveness. Domesticated zebra finches may be more sensitive to the early effects of moderate under-nutrition on song complexity than their non-domesticated counterparts. In an aviary experiment with non-domesticated zebra finch stock, we found that song complexity when measured by a linear combination of six variables was reduced in food-restricted birds, with syllable rate and maximum syllable frequency as the principal variables affected. The restriction had no effect on learning accuracy when song phrases of experimental birds were compared to those of their fathers.This result demonstrates that early nutrition may differentially affect the development of neural processes that influence learning accuracy and song complexity. While the finding of negative effects of dietary restriction on song complexity is robust for zebra finches and is not an artefact of domestication, it does not explain why some nutritionally stressed populations of wild zebra finches have more complex songs than those from other regions of Australia characterised by greater food availability.     

基于GIS的地质灾害风险预警系统设计

利用GIS软件的二次开发技术,应用基于风险评价的预警方法建立地质灾害预警模型,设计地质灾害风险预警系统,在Visual Studio 2012.NET的开发环境下,以C#作为开发语言,并结合ArcGIS Engine研发.最后以通化县作为研究区域,验证此系统的可行性,结果表明该系统实现了地质灾害风险预警预报,具有较高的...     

降雨引发排土场滑坡的预警准则研究*

为降低降雨引发排土场滑坡的风险,提出更加科学、实用的降雨滑坡预警准则,以贵州某矿山排土场的实际情况为例,建立排土场在线监测预警系统,并基于FLAC3D软件,对安全系数与边坡位移的关系以及降雨与边坡位移的关系进行数值模拟。结果表明:降雨是影响排土场滑坡的主要因素,且降雨影响具有滞后性,降雨量可作为排土场滑坡的预警指标;排土场滑坡预警等级与排土场安全系数存在密切相关性,可根据排土场安全系数确定滑坡红、橙、黄、蓝预警等级;可根据模拟结果确定降雨引发排土场滑坡的预警准则。研究结果具有较强的实用性,为排土场滑坡事故的预防和控制提供科学指导。     

青鳉鱼的行为特征提取研究

采用生物行为传感器获取青鳉鱼的行为数据时,青鳉鱼个体差异会导致采集到的原始电信号在时空特性下完全不同。重要的行为特征往往被隐藏在原始信号中,传统的信号处理方法无法实时而有效地提取到这些特征。针对这个问题,观察并记录了暴露实验前后青鳉鱼的行为变化,提出了一种可以高效表征行为特征的直方图统计算法。实验结果表明,该方法能够准确对应人眼观测到的暴露实验前后鱼的行为变化趋势,同时也为后续异常行为识别提供一定的支持和参考。     

基于多因素信息融合的城市供水安全评价系统

为了确定城市供水安全状态,提出1种基于多因素信息融合思想的城市供水安全评价方法。以城市供水安全指标体系为基础,建立供水安全指标与基本概率指派函数焦元的对应关系;采用组合权重确定各评价指标的权重值作为对指标证据的支持程度,通过加权合成方法得到各因素定量、定性信息的基本概率指派函数值,利用证据理论的Dempster组合规则进行因素融合。研究结果表明:以郑州市供水安全指标体系为例,在进行多指标信息融合时与解决证据冲突的融合方法计算结果相同,郑州市2006——2008年城市供水处于不安全状态,2008年以后安全等级逐步升高且趋于稳定状态,可以预测出在未来一段时间郑州市的供水处于安全状态。