外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量影响的预报预警技术初步研究

利用多方位监测数据和气象资料,分析了2010—2011年春季外来沙尘输送对北京市空气质量指数的影响,提出外来沙尘对北京市空气质量级别影响的预报判据。此外,基于NAQPMS模型的沙尘模块,开展数值预报研究,并对北京市2010年3月一次沙尘天气污染过程进行数值模拟试验,结果表明,模拟的PM10浓度值与实测值有较好的一致性。通过判别预报和数值模拟两种预报技术的开展,可以预报沙尘输送影响的空气质量级别、沙尘分布和演变规律,为进一步开展空气质量预报预警和防控沙尘工作打下了很好的科学基础。     

浅谈环境预警应急指挥中心的构建与运作

从污染事故环境预警应急工作出发,结合当前环境监测和环境监察的职能,提出了环境预警应急指挥中心的构建要素、主要职能和核心任务,建议形成协调统一的组织管理模式、各有侧重的发展建设模式、平战结合的集约运作模式、优势互补的技术支撑模式,以及说清环境的解析问题模式.     

长输油气管道河沟道水毁灾害气象风险预警系统的设计与实现

以长输油气管道沿线河沟道水毁灾害调查为基础,详细叙述了管道河沟道水毁灾害的发育及危害特征,拟定了河沟道水毁冲刷深度计算方法;构建半定量评价指标体系,建立长输油气管道河沟道水毁灾害的气象风险预警模型,设计了基于WebGIS的长输油气管道河沟道水毁灾害气象风险预警系统.该风险预警系统基于B-S架构计算机程序,实现了最少人机...     

Rapid-behaviour responses as a reliable indicator of estrogenic chemical toxicity in zebrafish juveniles

Whereas biochemical and molecular parameters have been well recognised as important “signposts” of individual disturbance to endocrine disrupting chemical’s (EDCs) exposure, behavioural endpoints are yet greatly overlooked as a routine tool in environmental risk assessment of EDCs. However, life histories are intimately associated with numerous inter- and intra-specific interactions, which invariably depend on the performance of effective behaviours. Within fish species, one of the most important factors influencing energy turnover earlier in the development is locomotor activity. This essential trait reflects the organism’s ability to generate and coordinate the metabolic energy required for both reproductive and non-reproductive behaviours. Inappropriate movement responses due to toxic effects of contaminants may ultimately impact important ecological variables.Therefore, in the present study, the swimming bursts of zebrafish juveniles exposed for 40 d to the synthetic estrogen ethinylestradiol (EE₂), tested at environmentally relevant concentrations (nominal concentrations of 0.5, 1 and 2 ng L⁻¹), were investigated in order to address the potential of rapid-behaviour patterns as an effective response indicator of estrogenic endocrine disrupting chemical’s exposure. This synthetic estrogen was selected due to its high prevalence in aquatic ecosystems, ability to mimic natural estrogens and proven record of causing negative effects in fish reproduction. The behavioural responses were compared with established endpoints used in the screening of EE₂ effects at adulthood. Results indicate that zebrafish juveniles’ swimming activity was significantly decreased upon EE₂ exposure. Since reduced locomotion of zebrafish may impact foraging, predator avoidance, drift and transport, and even interfere with social and reproductive behaviours, a fitness decline of wild fish populations can ultimately be hypothesized. Furthermore, behavioural endpoints were found to display higher sensitivity to EE₂ than either vitellogenin gene induction or reproductive parameters determined at adulthood.Overall, the findings of this work not only demonstrate the power of high-throughput behavioural responses, able to act as sensitive early warning signals of EDC exposure, but also highlight the potential of behavioural endpoints in providing a more comprehensive and non-invasive measure of EDC’s exposure.     

环境预警系统的类型和构成

环境预警系统的类型和构成研究可为各级政府和企业提供决策依据。通过调研国内外环境预警系统的类型和构成要素,提出石油企业环境预警系统的设想,并对目前存在的问题进行探讨,以实现对环境事件及时预防的作用。     

基于职业病报告数据的监测预警系统设计

为了对单病种职业病的预防控制水平、某类职业病的预防控制水平进行动态评估和决策,运用信息监测预警的基本原理和理论,整理分析职业病报告数据,提出基于职业病报告的监测预警指标体系,构建出基于职业病报告数据的监测预警体系和运行模式。通过该监测预警系统的运行,可以科学的判断出应重点控制的职业病种（发病率高、发病工龄短、潜伏期短、病死率高、后果严重的职业病）,应重点控制的高危地区、高危行业、高危工种、高危人群,针对具体职业病病种应重点控制的影响因素等。     

基于可拓方法的职业危害控制水平预警模型

为了量化职业危害发生的可能性,并为职业病防治提供依据,利用物元分析方法,建立了高危作业有害因素控制水平的综合预警模型。为了避免人为主观因素的影响,采用简单可拓关联函数确定模型中指标权重,并以定量结果确定预警级别。实例验证表明,该模型可用于对职业危害的控制水平做出综合评价,并提供定量的预警信息。     

How do different process options and evaluation settings affect economic and environmental assessments? A case study on methyl methacrylate (MMA) production processes

We present an investigation on how economic and environmental assessment results change when different process options or evaluation settings are considered. As the main case study the production technology of methyl methacrylate (MMA) is investigated. Six commercial processes using different reaction routes are modelled and evaluated with respect to their economic and environmental performance. On these six base case models different process options and evaluation settings are considered and the resulting impacts on the assessment results are quantified. Major findings of the study are that the more decision-variables become fixed, the smaller becomes the impact of the decisions still to be taken—but not only with respect to the economic performance but also with regard to the environmental assessment result. Along the process development steps the potential impacts on the economic and environmental performance decrease to the same degree. The results obtained for the evaluation settings do not show such a systematic pattern as those for the process options. This finding indicates that decision makers face many options in the economic and especially the environmental assessment of chemical processes which might lead to quite different magnitudes in variability due to either the choice of method or the choice of method parameters. This paper demonstrates that the resulting variability might be crucial with respect to the decision making outcome.     

高危作业预警计算机系统设计

为了利用计算机技术对高危作业有害因素的预防控制水平进行动态评估和预警,在对现有的安全预警系统进行分析总结的基础上,根据高危作业的特点,给出了高危作业预警系统的设计方案.     

基于改进BP神经网络的职业危害预警模型

高危作业职业危害的严重性迫切需要对此建立有效的预警机制。目前的预警方法无法对多种职业危害因素作出综合、系统的评价。本文采用改进的BP神经网络,对多种职业危害因素进行综合预警,该预警模型不受人为因素的影响,在误差允许范围内可实现准确的实时预测。