用于早期火灾分类的非线性决策树支持向量机

对早期火灾信息进行研究,提出了一种基于非线性决策树的支持向量机多类分类模型。该模型利用非线性映射将样本投影到高维特征空间,比较每类样本在高维空间的分布情况,进行聚类构造出一个二叉决策树,使容易区分的类别从根节点逐层分类出来,有效克服了错分积累和避免不可分情况;同时,各个节点采用二值最小二乘小波支持向量机,以获得较高的泛化能力。该文将该模型用于早期火灾分类,并与BP神经网络、K近邻法和决策树方法进行比较,实验结果表明,该模型对早期火灾的识别率更高。     

Work injuries and disability

Problem

This study estimated the hazard ratio for disability pension retirement (DPR) for persons who have experienced a work injury causing absence lasting at least one day after the accidental injury occurred and to estimate the fraction of DPR attributable to work injuries.

Methods:

A total of 4,217 male and 4,105 female employees from a national survey were followed up for subsequent DPR.

Results and impact on industry and government:

Having had a work injury was a strong predictor of DPR among men. After control for age, smoking, body mass index, body postures, and physical demands, the hazard ratio (HR) among those employees who had ever experienced a work injury was 1.80 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.68). No association was found among women.

Summary:

Having had a reportable work injury is a strong predictor of subsequent DPR for men.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

林业生物灾害预警的内涵

林业生物灾害预警是我国林业有害生物预防体系的主要内容,但一直以来对林业生物灾害这一概念没有一个统一的定义,处于“各自表述”的状态.在参考国内外林业生物灾害预警研究的基础上,对一些相关概念做了厘清,提出了一个林业生物灾害预警系统的框架.该系统由4部分构成:分析潜在威胁、检定真实威胁、警情发布和响应威胁.通过有害生物风险分析和发生预测来判断潜在的威胁;通过威胁勘察、监测和检疫措施来检定真实的威胁;然后评估威胁大小.提出了一个度量威胁大小的指标——发生指数,它既考虑了有害生物的种群密度(或病情指数),又考虑了发生面积.发生指数可在当年有害生物发生结束后根据实际发生情况计算,但在预警时必须根据预警指标(立地指数、林分指数、气象指数等)来推算.根据推算的发生指数,将警情分级,向经营者和公众发布警报.同时,相关部门根据相应的预案进行威胁响应.对预案执行情况应进行评估,必要时进行预案修订.     

海湾大桥施工动态安全预警系统的研究

针对海上施工建设单位多、人员复杂、受气象灾害影响大,而目前没有施工安全预警系统的现状,提出青岛海湾大桥施工动态安全预警系统。该系统分为8个模块,从静态的管理机构、动态的现场安全状况和管理方法上进行施工安全管理。其中,静态的管理机构是管理的基础;动态的现场安全状况是全面、及时反映施工现场情况,便于及时发现问题,进行环境预警,而且有利于实现施工建设业主、施工方和监理方3方的相互监督。形成了一个较为全面系统的安全管理体系,建立了涵盖施工建设工程3方的预警管理系统,实现动态的安全管理、环境灾害预警和办公自动化。     

生产安全预警预报指标体系研究

分析生产安全预控指标体系建立的必要性,指出当前生产安全预控研究现状及存在的问题;提出建立生产安全预控指标的改进模式;基于生产安全预控研究现状,建立企业层面的生产安全预警指标体系和政府部门宏观决策层的生产安全预报指标体系;对现有的预警预报程序进行改进,设计从企业层面到国家层面的生产安全预警预报和控制程序,为生产安全指数的计算提供了依据。政府部门可通过自下(企业)而上(地区或国家)的程序依次计算安全指数,再由上而下查找问题,从而给出控制目标和措施。     

Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: John Twigg and Mihir R. Bhatt, eds, Understanding Vulnerability Joachim von Braun, Tesfaye Teklu and Patrick Webb, Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and Prevention C. Emdad Haque, Hazrads in a Fickle Environment: Bangladesh Walter Gillis Peacock, Betty Hearn Morrow and Hugh Gladwin, eds, Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects Roy Gutman and David Rieff, eds, Crimes of War: What the Public Should Know     

Green reconstruction of the tsunami-affected areas in India using the integrated coastal zone management concept

A tsunami, triggered by a massive undersea earthquake off Sumatra in Indonesia, greatly devastated the lives, property and infrastructure of coastal communities in the coastal states of India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand. This event attracted the attention of environmental managers at all levels, local, national, regional and global. It also shifted the focus from the impact of human activities on the environment to the impacts of natural hazards. Recovery/reconstruction of these areas is highly challenging. A clear understanding of the complex dynamics of the coast and the types of challenges faced by the several stakeholders of the coast is required. Issues such as sustainability, equity and community participation assume importance. The concept of ICZM (integrated coastal zone management) has been effectively used in most parts of the world. This concept emphasizes the holistic assessment of the coast and a multidisciplinary analysis using participatory processes. It integrates anthropocentric and eco-centric approaches. This paper documents several issues involved in the recovery of tsunami-affected areas and recommends the application of the ICZM concept to the reconstruction efforts.     

利用信息技术完善应急预警体系

从化工企业安全生产事故调查分析中发现,生产装置发生事故前瞬间波动的数据变化已在DCS控制系统上出现,提示已出现故障将导致事故发生。如何根据出现故障时的瞬间变化数据做出正确的判断,是遏制或控制安全生产事故发生的关键。因此,本文采用OPC标准通讯接口,建立与生产系统的数据链接,通过网关机和防火墙技术隔离,保证数据的安全性。利用移动公司提供的Socket接口,采用面向对象语言DELPH自主开发短信模块接口程序,通过系统调用实现预警模块的自动短信报警和手工短信报警功能,实现短信等多渠道监报,建成安全管理系统中对危险源生产装置的实时监控,完成与应急预警信息系统的有效链接使用,建立安全生产事故应急预警信息平台,对瞬间应急预警指令所作出的反应,以迅速作出反应,有效地解决问题,遏制事故的发生。