寒地黑土生态环境监测预警体系的构建

上个世纪八十年代以来,一些国际组织和国际合作项目都纷纷建立了生态环境监测和研究体系,例如美国的LTERN、英国的ECN、IGBP、联合国环境署（UNEP）在全球范围内建立的“全球环境监测系统”（GEMS）以及联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）和国际科联（ICSU）建立的全球陆地生态系统观测体系（GTOS）等等。目前中国还没有一个能够有效覆盖寒地黑土全区域生态与环境动态监测体系,这不符合可持续发展的要求。论文阐述了构建寒地黑土生态环境监测预警指标体系的原则及思路,认为寒地黑土区域内生态环境治理监测预警体系应包括生态环境治理动态监测体系、诊断分析监测体系和对策措施体系,重点对诊断分析监测体系的指标构成进行了介绍。     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

基于尖点突变模型的地铁深基坑土压力预警阈值研究

为提高地铁施工灾害预警的准确性和可靠性,将尖点突变模型引入地铁施工灾害预警阈值的研究中,建立基于时效影响因子的地铁深基坑土压力尖点突变模型。该模型利用突变流形分析系统的平衡和临界状态,通过势函数突变点临界值确定预警阈值的大小,为地铁施工灾害预警工作提供科学依据。通过实例分析,计算出考虑时间效应的土压力预警阈值。结果表明,地铁深基坑土压力尖点突变模型消除了计算过程中的人为因素影响,并能反映基坑土压力突变的特点。当然,在实际工程施工中,需要对预警阈值进行及时的重新修正,以适应外界环境和技术的不断更新变化。     

国产地基合成孔径雷达监测预警系统在紫金山金铜矿露天采场边坡位移监测的应用

紫金山金铜矿是福建紫金矿业集团股份有限公司下属的一个矿山基地,其露天采场将是全亚洲第一高露天矿山边坡。基于目前矿山采用的全站仪、GPS等监测技术,易受粉尘、降雨、光照、云雾等影响,无法实现大范围边坡区域实时、自动监测。而地基合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术则可以克服上述缺陷,该技术是滑坡监测技术未来的发展趋势,对于灾害预报及防治具有重要意义。介绍了国产地基合成孔径雷达边坡位移监测预警系统在紫金山金铜矿露采边坡的首次应用,验证了地基合成孔径雷达系统用于形变监测的可靠性、有效性及高精度等优势。     

生活必需品应急储备渠道监测技术研究与应用

为有效监测生活必需品的应急储备情况,改善储备工作中的不足,确保储备质量,提升保障能力。在分析国内外生活必需品应急储备工作的基础上,对监测准备、数据采集加工、监测分析、储备评估等关键环节展开研究。提出了融合多种手段的全方位监测数据采集与集成技术,基于数据挖掘和知识发现的多维分析与预测预警技术,以及结合责任、风险、反馈与保障能力的综合评估技术,形成了全面、动态、智能的生活必需品应急储备渠道监测体系,并运用系统工程的思想和方法,借助物联网和地理信息系统等技术,构建了生活必需品应急储备一体化渠道监测平台。研究成果有利于提前发现问题,减少风险,优化储备计划,节省储备成本,提高储备质量与保障能力,具有非常重要的现实意义。     

Tools for an enhanced solvent properties screening in the early stages of pharmaceutical process development

The objective of this research was the implementation of tools for the evaluation of solvents trough property screening in the early stages of process development. An important feature of the tools is that the implementation of indexes, scores, or weights is avoided. Information already available from the literature was stored in a database in order to turn raw data into decision making information. As a result, a solvent radar chart, a solvent representation table, and a solvent telescopying tool were developed in an ASP.NET application. The synthesis of Propranolol was used as study case in order to explore the selection of solvents in the early stages of process development. The replacement of diethyl ether was possible in the extraction step, while solvent choices were detected for potential telescoping for extraction and crystallisation steps. Solubility was found as a critical parameter in telescoping analysis. The methodology proposed enhanced the view towards a more holistic perspective and a more robust solvent screening process. As a consequence, the next steps into solvent evaluation and process development can be reduced.     

煤矿灾害预警影响因素仿真分析

针对煤矿灾害预警过程存在的问题,首先运用解释结构模型分析各影响因素之间的相互关系,其次运用系统动力学原理和方法,对影响煤矿灾害预警的各因素进行动态仿真,对比分析各因素水平增加量对预警水平的影响程度,得出灾害预警中不同因素对预警水平的实际作用率。仿真结果有助于煤矿采取针对性的预警管理措施,同时为煤矿安全管理决策提供一个新的思路。     

石油井下作业井喷风险预警分级模型研究

结合石油井下历史事故资料和井下高危作业风险辨识资料,依据SMART原则,从企业应用角度,建立井喷风险预警分级评价指标体系,评价指标包括固有风险频率、事故严重度、监控与监测措施3方面;对各指标给出相应的权重和分值,并在风险原理的基础上设计风险评价分级数学模型,建立石油井下作业井喷风险预警分级标准。根据分级模型得到的风险分级结果可以对石油井下作业井喷风险进行有针对性的防范和控制,避免井喷事故的发生。     

我国旅游安全预警体系的构建研究

指出我国应建立分区域、分层次且体系深入的旅游安全预警体系,其预警结构包括突发事件预警、环境污染预警、旅游容量预警和旅游业务预警等4个模块。提出建立由外交部和国家旅游局相互协作的出境旅游预警机制,建立由国家旅游局作为信息发布主体的全国性和区域性旅游预警机制,建立由省级旅游主管部门进行信息发布的区域内旅游预警机制,并可在省级行政区域之间建立相互间的旅游安全风险预警机制。     

地震预测预警等级风险评估与分区分级发布方案的研究

从地震预测预警的思路和要达到的减灾目的出发,提出了发布预测预警的基本原则,并根据地震灾害的特点,给出了地震预测预警等级的划分。结合我国地震预报、震灾预防等方面的理论与实践,提出了预测预警等级的风险评估方法和分区分级发布方案。以地震实例对风险评估、分区分级发布方案进行了案例分析和检验。