Using data augmentation via the Gibbs Sampler to incorporate missing covariate structure in linear models for ecological assessments

Missing covariate values in linear regression models can be an important problem facing environmental researchers. Existing missing value treatment methods such as Multiple Imputation (MI), the EM algorithm and Data Augmentation (DA) have the assumption that both observed and unobserved data come from the same distribution, most commonly a multivariate normal or a conditionally multivariate normal family. These methods do try to incorporate the missing data mechanism and rely on the assumption of Missing At Random (MAR). We present a DA method which does not rely on the MAR assumption and can model missing data mechanisms and covariate structure. This method utilizes the Gibbs Sampler as a tool for incorporating these structures and mechanisms. We apply this method to an ecological data set that relates fish condition to environmental variables. Notice that the presented DA method detects relationships that are not detected when other missing data methods are employed.

基于ARIMA模型的辽河流域生态足迹动态模拟与预测

将能值与生态足迹理论相结合,引入能量折算系数,通过能值密度构建能值-生态足迹模型,并应用此模型对辽河流域2001—2010年生态承载力和生态足迹进行计算。生态承载力计算主要是自然生态承载力和本地产品产出承载力,其中自然生态承载力主要考虑可更新资源的承载力,本地产品产出承载力主要包括生物资源产出承载力和工业产品产出承载力。生态足迹的计算主要包括消费足迹和污染足迹,消费足迹主要测算生物资源消费、能源消费和水资源消费足迹。污染足迹主要测算废气和生活废水、工业废水对自然生态系统带来的负荷。测算结果表明:2001—2010年辽河流域人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹均有所增加,但是生态足迹的增长速度远远大于生态承载力,致使流域内自2001与2009年生态略有盈余外,其余年份均出现生态赤字,处于不可持续发展状态。以能值-生态足迹模型测算结果为基础,基于EViews采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA),对流域内10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态模拟。首先通过ADF与PP单位根检验时间序列的平稳性;其次分析序列的自相关函数图和偏自相关函数,初步确定AR和MA的阶次;再根据R2、AIC及SC准则,进行模型参数估计并诊断分析;最后确定最佳模拟模型。以ARIMA模型预测2011—2015年辽河流域生态足迹和生态承载力的演变趋势。预测结果表明,人均生态足迹在未来5年内会继续呈直线式增长,到2015年达到7.387 8 hm2,是2001年的2.16倍;而人均生态承载力在2011年之后开始下降,生态赤字继续扩大,到2015年增长到-4.167 67,约为2005年的10倍,流域内不可持续发展形势会更加恶化。最后提出辽河流域生态安全建设的对策。能值-生态足迹模型测算结果与实地调研基本相符,较真实反映了辽河流域可持续发展状况。基于ARIMA模型模拟预测结果可为未来流域开发和建设提供参考依据。     

Multi-objective synthesis of a company's supply network by accounting for several environmental footprints

This contribution presents the multi-objective synthesis of a company's supply network by integrating renewables (biomass and other waste, and solar energy) and accounting for several environmental footprints. The synthesis is based on a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem. A previously developed model by the authors for achieving energy self-sufficiency by integrating renewables into companies’ supply networks has been extended for the evaluation of environmental impacts, such as energy, carbon, nitrogen, and water footprints. The achievement of an energy self-sufficient supply network has been considered whilst significantly reducing environmental impacts.The presented model is applied to multinational poultry-meat producing company. Direct (burdening) and indirect (unburdening) effects that form total effects on the environment are considered for the evaluation of environmental footprints. The results showed significant unburdening of the environment in terms of carbon and nitrogen footprints but, however, higher burdening in terms of the water footprint.     

武汉市巡司河中抗生素分布特征及生态风险评价

采用大体积直接进样—超高效液相色谱串联质谱法分析武汉市巡司河中45种抗生素的存在水平,评估其可能存在的生态风险。在巡司河布设6个采样点,于2022年12月—2023年5月进行采样并分析。结果显示,6个采样点共检出27种抗生素,检出最大质量浓度为874.2 ng/L;其中,氧氟沙星、左氧氟沙星检出率均为100%。监测期间,12月抗生素平均质量浓度最高（101.05 ng/L）,4月最低（25.87 ng/L）。6个点位中,点位S3与S5抗生素平均质量浓度高于其他点位,分别为1 721.20和1 734.07 ng/L;点位S4是巡司河与长江的交汇处,抗生素平均质量浓度最低（94.54 ng/L）。利用风险商值法对巡司河中抗生素生态风险开展评价,结果表明：氧氟沙星、罗红霉素和克拉霉素呈现出较高风险,左氧氟沙星、林可霉素和莫西沙星在大多数点位处于中等风险,其余几种抗生素风险较低。     

我国生态环境监测标准现状、问题及建议

简述了我国生态环境监测标准的基本情况、分类及数量占比。分析了生态环境监测标准制修订过程中存在的问题,包括:配套环境监管存在缺项、对生态环境保护专项支撑不够、标准更新不及时、标准效力受限、同一目标物质的多种监测方法缺乏等效性评价、标准制修订周期较长、生物和生态遥感监测标准薄弱等。提出了加快标准制修订工作进度、建立评估复审机制和基准方法体系、加强新污染物监测科学研究等工作建议。     

Assessing the ecological security of the Tibetan plateau: methodology and a case study for Lhaze County

A system for assessing the ecological security of Lhaze County in China's Tibetan Autonomous Region was developed using a pressure-state-response model and the analytic hierarchy process. We then used this model to comprehensively evaluate the status of ecological security in Lhaze County. Our results showed that the ecological environment in Lhaze County has deteriorated from an 'early stages of damage status' in the 1980s to 'moderately damaged status' today. This deterioration has become a major barrier to local economic development and social advancement. Natural and social aspects related to the population explosion, resource exploitation, and climate change that led to this ecological deterioration are discussed. Furthermore, we have suggested proposals for improving the ecological environment that include controlling population growth and enhancing the system of laws that protect the environment, upgrading 3 882.6 ha of low-yield farmland, planting 2 425.8, 548.8, and 1 207.4 ha of shelter belts for farmland protection, soil and water conservation, and fuelwood, respectively, and seeding 2 358.1 ha of artificial grassland. In the meantime, we propose strengthening the controls that limit soil and water loss, and optimizing industrial sectors that aspire to achieve high-efficiency, ecologically responsible agriculture.     

淮北市矿区生态保护总体规划

为了恢复和重建淮北矿区生态系统,本文按照矿区各塌陷地的不同特征,提出了矿区生态保护总体规划,该规划主要包括生态农业、生态工业、环保产业、生态旅游业和工业污染防治设施建设等,规划后最终使整个淮北矿区生态、社会、经济效益同步增长,矿区实现生态良性循环,促进淮北市的可持续发展。     

黑龙江省湿地生态环境监测指标的探讨

根据黑龙江省湿地生态环境特点,研究讨论了建立湿地生态环境监测指标体系应遵循的原则,并提出了优先监测项目。     

巢湖生态系统之优化

巢湖为中国五大淡水湖之一,它是合肥市的可靠洪水水源,又是合肥通往长江的水上通道,并灌溉着周围40万公顷土地。然而,巢湖面临泥沙淤积、水质污染、富营养化与旱涝灾害四大生态问题。本文提出以水量调控为主的生态系统调控方法,除进行人口控制与绿化外,还进行了巢湖分洪道与江淮运河两项工程。水量调控可解决巢湖四大生态问题,还可缓解淮河中游水量不足及其水污染问题,且有水上运输的便利。计算结果表明,水量调控的湖泊生态系统优化方法是目前经济可行而有效的方法之一。     

The application of environmental certification to the Province of Siena

The SPIn-Eco project has provided very broad and precise data collection regarding the Province of Siena. These data and their elaborations have also been developed as a basis for the environmental certification of this organization. In this way, the Administration of the Province of Siena (the first Province in Italy) has reached its goal of obtaining better knowledge of the state of the system and of constructing its environmental management system (EMS) according to the environmental aspects directly and indirectly arising from the organization's activities. Indirect aspects are mainly related to the territorial monitoring and planning. Indicators based on the classical pressure-state-response approach, as well as more complex ones based on CO(2) balance, emergy and ecological footprint analyses, have been used to assess the environmental performance of the EMS. This paper presents how this EMS is constructed, as well as the indicators that are used to analyze the system, paying particular attention to sustainability indicators.