Arsenic forensic modeling leads to decommission of downgradient/off-site monitoring wells

Arsenic was detected at concentrations exceeding the regulatory limit of 0.010 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in an off-site bedrock monitoring well downgradient of a former electroplating facility in Merrimack, New Hampshire. The bedrock underlying the site is associated with naturally occurring high concentrations of groundwater arsenic. Geochemical modeling was used to evaluate whether the arsenic in bedrock groundwater at the off-site monitoring location was site-related or naturally occurring. The hydrogeochemical signature of the off-site bedrock well did not resemble signatures of site-impacted bedrock wells. Multiple lines of evidence support that the arsenic observed in off-site bedrock groundwater was not a result of adverse impacts from site-related groundwater contamination.     

Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range‐size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red‐list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species’ extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale‐sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1–1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer‐scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid‐measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape‐scale threats to species and ecosystems.     

A safety analysis of roundabouts and turbo roundabouts based on Petri nets

Objective: In this work, a roundabout and a turbo roundabout model are compared and previous modeling with continuous Petri nets and safety are analyzed through indicators of complexity. Petri nets are a graphic and mathematical representation that allow a faithful modeling of urban systems.

Method: The methodology has been designed for the transformation of a real system to small subgraphs that represent the maneuvers in roundabouts, approximated as roads and lanes of incorporation. Places within the roundabout have been located and defined as continuous places from their influence and visibility toward adjacent conditions. The transitions have been modeled by time and inhibitory arcs, which represent priorities and areas where drivers must pay attention. The created networks represent a faithful model of vehicle flow trajectories in the roundabouts.

Results: The methodology is applied to the same real road intersection. The case study is a recent transformation from roundabout to turbo roundabout. The roundabout network complexity is corroborated by a greater number of entries and exits that lead to each roundabout place (reflected in the maneuvers that can be performed) and a greater number of inhibiting arcs. In most of the turbo roundabout places, the driver’s only option is reduced to occupying next place. The possibility of choosing between several places supposes a greater trajectory intersection and an increased time for decision making. The only situation where the complexity is the same between both systems is when a vehicle accesses the inner lane of the roundabout from the left lane on a single-lane road. The main maneuvers causing accidents have been modeled and their solution in a turbo roundabout is presented.

Conclusions: The reduced complexity of the turbo roundabout is due to the strict limitations in lane changes, turning turbo roundabouts into a safer model: A lower number of possible movements that can be performed by drivers and a smaller number of trajectories with collision risk. Petri nets have proven to be perfectly applicable to the representation of traffic circular systems (such as roundabouts and turbo roundabouts) and to measure the complexity and security of the system.     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Emissions of volatile hydrocarbons from floating roof tanks and their local dispersion: Considerations for normal operation and in case of damage

This work investigates the release and dispersion of volatile organic hydrocarbons, which may escape from external floating roof tanks (EFRT) during normal operation or in case of damage. The dispersion will be described using CFD simulations in close range of the EFRT where hazardous areas are assigned. The aim of this work is to investigate which events can lead to emissions in dangerous quantities and to estimate the corresponding likelihood with regard to explosion protection. An emission in hazardous amount is present if the lower explosion limit has been exceeded and if the extent of this emission is not too low. It is discussed in particular whether the used zoning of potentially explosive areas is conservative or over-conservative.     

Worldwide effects of non-native species on species–area relationships

Non-native species have invaded most parts of the world, and the invasion process is expected to continue and accelerate. Because many invading non-native species are likely to become permanent inhabitants, future consideration of species-area relationships (SARs) should account for non-native species, either separately or jointly with native species. If non-native species occupy unused niches and space in invaded areas and extinction rate of native species remains low (especially for plants), the resultant SARs (with both native and non-native species) will likely be stronger. We used published and newly compiled data (35 data sets worldwide) to examine how species invasions affect SARs across selected taxonomic groups and diverse ecosystems around the world. We first examined the SARs for native, non-native, and all species. We then investigated with linear regression analyses and paired or unpaired t tests how degree of invasion (proportion of non-native species) affected postinvasion SARs. Postinvasion SARs for all species (native plus non-native) became significantly stronger as degree of invasion increased (r² = 0.31, p = 0.0006), thus, reshaping SARs worldwide. Overall, native species still showed stronger and less variable SARs. Also, slopes for native species were steeper than for non-native species (0.298 vs. 0.153). There were some differences among non-native taxonomic groups in filling new niches (especially for birds) and between islands and mainland ecosystems. We also found evidence that invasions may increase equilibrial diversity. Study of such changing species–area curves may help determine the probability of future invasions and have practical implications for conservation.     

An ecological economics approach to the management of a multi-purpose coastal wetland

Three interrelated management problems—eutrophication of multiple use shallow lakes, sea level rise and flood risk mitigation and tourism pressures—are analysed in the context of an internationally important wetland area, the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads in the UK. The ecological-economic research findings presented should provide essential information to underpin the regulatory and management process in this internationally important conservation area. The relevant authority somehow has to integrate the maintenance of public navigation rights, nature conservation, and tourism promotion in a highly dynamic ecosystems setting. Because of the stakeholder conflicts, potential and actual, a more inclusionary decision-making procedure is required, and is currently being implemented.     

AGRICULTURAL WATER MODELING AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION NEEDS UNDER THE MODEL WATER CODE1

ABSTRACT: Economic information for efficient water allocation is difficult and costly to acquire under administrative water systems evolving under the Model Water Code. One approach to obtaining more information is to use a simulator like the Florida AGWATER model. The advantage of AGWATER is the potential for realistic prediction, because it operates at the field and day levels, using detailed information for each crop and tract. Unfortunately, such simulators are complex and require large amounts of costly input data. A better solution to the information problem may be to use markets for the marketable goods associated with water, because information is inherent in such a process. This approach will allow limited modeling and management resources to be put into using water models to generate information for the goods dependent on water that are difficult to market, like wildlife services.     

TEMPERATURE AND THE PRODUCTIVITY-LIGHT RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Seventy-three in situ primary productivity experiments over a six-month period in hypereutrophic Onondaga Lake near Syracuse, New York, demonstrated variations in the light saturation parameter, I_p, which in part describes the interaction between productivity and light. Substantial variations in I_p were observed (coefficient of variation = 60 percent). Variations in I_p were significantly correlated (greater than 99 percent confidence level) with temperature (°C). An Arrhenius-type relationship (I_p= 1.312 × 1.088 (^T-20)) accounted for approximately 37 percent of the variation in I_p and may be appropriate for other systems dominated by green algae.     

Emission Inventories of Carbon-containing Greenhouse Gases in China and Technological Measures for Their Abatement

The report summarizes surveys on carbon inventories and initiatives on sustainable carbon cycling taken by the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, where the authors work/worked. The first part of the report, which appeared in the preceding issue of this journal, deals with the concept of sustainable carbon cycling, the historic evolution of carbon cycling processes in China, carbon pool enhancement, value addition, carbon sequestration and carbon balance. This very paper, as the second part of the report, covers the results of carbon dynamics modeling, emission inventories of various carbon-containing greenhouse gases and their potential abatement measures.