生态文明下城市复合生态管理模式与对策

党的"十八大"明确了以资源节约利用、生态环境保护为基础的生态文明建设的原则,该研究正是基于生态文明的理念下,从城市规划、产业结构、资源政策、环境承载力以及公众参与等5个方面对城市生态管理模式进行了多维性思考,指出只有坚持规划先行、优化升级产业结构、提高资源的政策调控、增强环保意识、探索多元化的公众参与模式,才是实现我国城市生态建设协调健康发展的基础,同时也指出城市复合生态管理才是我国未来城市生态建设的发展趋势,是我国城市生态管理模式发展的现实需求。该研究期望能够正确把握生态文明下城市生态管理的本质内涵,为日益市场化的城市提供高水平的城市生态管理范本,也为实现长久、稳定的可持续发展提供理论依据和指导思想。     

Identifying Conservation and Restoration Priorities for Saproxylic and Old-Growth Forest Species: A Case Study in Switzerland

Saproxylic (dead-wood-associated) and old-growth species are among the most threatened species in European forest ecosystems, as they are susceptible to intensive forest management. Identifying areas with particular relevant features of biodiversity is of prime concern when developing species conservation and habitat restoration strategies and in optimizing resource investments. We present an approach to identify regional conservation and restoration priorities even if knowledge on species distribution is weak, such as for saproxylic and old-growth species in Switzerland. Habitat suitability maps were modeled for an expert-based selection of 55 focal species, using an ecological niche factor analyses (ENFA). All the maps were then overlaid, in order to identify potential species’ hotspots for different species groups of the 55 focal species (e.g., birds, fungi, red-listed species). We found that hotspots for various species groups did not correspond. Our results indicate that an approach based on “richness hotspots” may fail to conserve specific species groups. We hence recommend defining a biodiversity conservation strategy prior to implementing conservation/restoration efforts in specific regions. The conservation priority setting of the five biogeographical regions in Switzerland, however, did not differ when different hotspot definitions were applied. This observation emphasizes that the chosen method is robust. Since the ENFA needs only presence data, this species prediction method seems to be useful for any situation where the species distribution is poorly known and/or absence data are lacking. In order to identify priorities for either conservation or restoration efforts, we recommend a method based on presence data only, because absence data may reflect factors unrelated to species presence.     

Value of protected areas to avian persistence across 20 years of climate and land-use change

Establishing protected areas, where human activities and land cover changes are restricted, is among the most widely used strategies for biodiversity conservation. This practice is based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. However, protected areas can maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change and subsequent shifts in distributions have been questioned. We evaluated the degree to which protected areas influenced colonization and extinction patterns of 97 avian species over 20 years in the northeastern United States. We fitted single-visit dynamic occupancy models to data from Breeding Bird Atlases to quantify the magnitude of the effect of drivers of local colonization and extinction (e.g., climate, land cover, and amount of protected area) in heterogeneous landscapes that varied in the amount of area under protection. Colonization and extinction probabilities improved as the amount of protected area increased, but these effects were conditional on landscape context and species characteristics. In this forest-dominated region, benefits of additional land protection were greatest when both forest cover in a grid square and amount of protected area in neighboring grid squares were low. Effects did not vary with species’ migratory habit or conservation status. Increasing the amounts of land protection benefitted the range margins species but not the core range species. The greatest improvements in colonization and extinction rates accrued for forest birds relative to open-habitat or generalist species. Overall, protected areas stemmed extinction more than they promoted colonization. Our results indicate that land protection remains a viable conservation strategy despite changing habitat and climate, as protected areas both reduce the risk of local extinction and facilitate movement into new areas. Our findings suggest conservation in the face of climate change favors creation of new protected areas over enlarging existing ones as the optimal strategy to reduce extinction and provide stepping stones for the greatest number of species.     

Evaluating the Effects of Anthropogenic Stressors on Source‐Sink Dynamics in Pond‐Breeding Amphibians

Although interwetland dispersal is thought to play an important role in regional persistence of pond‐breeding amphibians, few researchers have modeled amphibian metapopulation or source‐sink dynamics. Results of recent modeling studies suggest anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution, can negatively affect density and population viability of amphibians breeding in isolated wetlands. Presumably population declines also result in reduced dispersal to surrounding (often uncontaminated) habitats, potentially affecting dynamics of nearby populations. We used our data on the effects of mercury (Hg) on the American toad ( Bufo americanus) as a case study in modeling the effects of anthropogenic stressors on landscape‐scale amphibian dynamics. We created a structured metapopulation model to investigate regional dynamics of American toads and to evaluate the degree to which detrimental effects of Hg contamination on individual populations can disrupt interpopulation dynamics. Dispersal from typical American toad populations supported nearby populations that would otherwise have been extirpated over long time scales. Through support of such sink populations, dispersal between wetland‐associated subpopulations substantially increased overall productivity of wetland networks, but this effect declined with increasing interwetland distance and decreasing wetland size. Contamination with Hg substantially reduced productivity of wetland‐associated subpopulations and impaired the ability of populations to support nearby sinks within relevant spatial scales. Our results add to the understanding of regional dynamics of pond‐breeding amphibians, the wide‐reaching negative effects of environmental contaminants, and the potential for restoration or remediation of degraded habitats. Evaluación de los Efectos de Estresantes Antropogénicos sobre la Dinámica Fuente‐Vertedero en Anfibios que se Reproducen en Charcas     

Implications of network particle tracking (NPT) for ecological model interpretation

Network particle tracking (NPT), building on the foundation of network environ analysis (NEA), is a new development in the definition of coherence relations within and between connected systems. This paper evaluates three ecosystem models in a comparison of throughflow- and storage-based NEA and NPT. Compartments in models with high indirect effects and Finn cycling showed low correlation of NEA storage and throughflow with particle repeat visits and numbers of particles in compartments at steady state. Conversely, the correlation between NEA and NPT results was high with two models having lower indirect effects and Finn cycling. Analysis of ecological orientors associated with NEA showed NPT to fully support conventional NEA results when the common conditions of donor control and steady state are satisfied. Particle trajectories are recorded in the new concept of a particle “passport”. Ability to track and record particle in-system histories enables views of multiple scales and opens the possibility of making pathway-dependent modeling decisions. NPT may also enable modeling of time, allowing integration of Newtonian, organismal and stochastic modeling perspectives in a single comprehensive analysis.     

Testing Hypotheses of Bird Extinctions at Rio Palenque,Ecuador, with Informal Species Lists

Abstract: Informally gathered species lists are a potential source of data for conservation biology, but most remain unused because of questions of reliability and statistical issues. We applied two alternative analytical methods (contingency tests and occupancy modeling) to a 35‐year data set (1973–2007) to test hypotheses about local bird extinction. We compiled data from bird lists collected by expert amateurs and professional scientists in a 2‐km² fragment of lowland tropical forest in coastal Ecuador. We tested the effects of the following on local extinction: trophic level, sociality, foraging specialization, light tolerance, geographical range area, and biogeographic source. First we assessed extinction on the basis of the number of years in which a species was not detected on the site and used contingency tests with each factor to compare the frequency of expected and observed extinction events among different species categories. Then we defined four multiyear periods that reflected different stages of deforestation and isolation of the study site and used occupancy modeling to test extinction hypotheses singly and in combination. Both types of analyses supported the biogeographic source hypothesis and the species‐range hypothesis as causes of extinction; however, occupancy modeling indicated the model incorporating all factors except foraging specialization best fit the data.     

基于随机Petri网的平交道口建模及事故率分析

基于公路道口使用者的违规进入及违规人数比例是道口发生事故的主要原因为背景,分析道口使用者违规进入道口前的平均等待时间及违规比例,列车在各个区段的时间特性与道口事故率之间的定量关系。采用随机Petri网基于道口公路使用者、道口铁路列车的经过道口过程、道口安全防护系统功能及三者之间的相关性进行建模及事故率分析。根据模型的仿真表明:当列车由道口传感器区进入接近区的时间和由接近区进入道口的时间由随机值变为固定值时,道口事故率大大降低;公路使用者在违规进入道口前,等待某个时间后进入道口发生事故的风险最大。当列车由接近区进入道口的时间为随机值时,公路使用者的违规比例增加会明显加大事故率。     

The effect of fluorescent tracers on droplet spectrum,viscosity, and density of pesticide formulations

The most important factor affecting efficacy and drift of pesticide applications is the droplet spectrum. To measure pesticide drift, researchers utilize fluorescent tracers to rapidly quantify spray deposition. Although fluorescent tracers have been used for more than 50 years, no experiments have been performed on the effect they have on the properties of pesticide formulations (density and viscosity) or droplet spectrum, which affect the drift of pesticides. Therefore, we examined the effect of an oil- and water-based tracer on the volume median diameter (VMD), viscosity, and density of oil- and water-based pesticide formulations. In addition, we experimentally fit and demonstrate the utility of using distributions to characterize pesticide droplet spectra. The addition of tracers to both water- and oil-based formulations did not significantly alter the VMD, viscosity, and density. Lognormal distributions provided the best fit for the water- and oil-based formulations with and without tracer. Our results demonstrated that the addition of oil- and water-based tracers do not significantly alter pesticide formulations properties and droplet spectrum, and most likely do not alter the movement of pesticide droplets in the environment.     

Eigenbehaviors: identifying structure in routine

Longitudinal behavioral data generally contains a significant amount of structure. In this work, we identify the structure inherent in daily behavior with models that can accurately analyze, predict, and cluster multimodal data from individuals and communities within the social network of a population. We represent this behavioral structure by the principal components of the complete behavioral dataset, a set of characteristic vectors we have termed eigenbehaviors. In our model, an individual’s behavior over a specific day can be approximated by a weighted sum of his or her primary eigenbehaviors. When these weights are calculated halfway through a day, they can be used to predict the day’s remaining behaviors with 79% accuracy for our test subjects. Additionally, we demonstrate the potential for this dimensionality reduction technique to infer community affiliations within the subjects’ social network by clustering individuals into a “behavior space” spanned by a set of their aggregate eigenbehaviors. These behavior spaces make it possible to determine the behavioral similarity between both individuals and groups, enabling 96% classification accuracy of community affiliations within the population-level social network. Additionally, the distance between individuals in the behavior space can be used as an estimate for relational ties such as friendship, suggesting strong behavioral homophily amongst the subjects. This approach capitalizes on the large amount of rich data previously captured during the Reality Mining study from mobile phones continuously logging location, proximate phones, and communication of 100 subjects at MIT over the course of 9 months. As wearable sensors continue to generate these types of rich, longitudinal datasets, dimensionality reduction techniques such as eigenbehaviors will play an increasingly important role in behavioral research. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James). An erratum to this article can be found at     

A Multispecies Framework for Landscape Conservation Planning

Abstract: Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single‐species assessments and ecosystem‐level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km² with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade‐offs of different scenarios of land‐cover change in terms of species occupancy.