Complementarity of No‐Take Marine Reserves and Individual Transferable Catch Quotas for Managing the Line Fishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.     

Costs of Integrating Economics and Conservation Planning

Abstract: Recent literature on systematic conservation planning has focused strongly on economics. It is a necessary component of efficient conservation planning because the question is about effective resource allocation. Nevertheless, there is an increasing tendency toward economic factors overriding biological considerations. Focusing too narrowly on economic cost may lead us back toward solutions resembling those obtained by opportunistic choice of areas, the avoidance of which was the motivation for development of systematic approaches. Moreover, there are many overlooked difficulties in incorporating economic considerations reliably into conservation planning because available economic data and the free market are complex. For instance, economies based on free markets tend to be shortsighted, whereas biodiversity conservation aims far into the future. Although economic data are necessary, they should not be relied on too heavily or considered separately from other sociopolitical factors. We suggest focusing on development of more‐comprehensive ecological‐economic modeling, while not forgetting the importance of purely biological analyses that are needed as a point of reference for evaluating conservation outcomes.     

A dynamic model of human dispersal in a land-based economy

This paper presents a dynamic state variable model that examines human dispersal in a land-based economy. In humans, like other animals, many individuals disperse during their lifetimes, with extensive variability in the timing and likelihood of dispersal by individuals of different states. The model places human and non-human dispersal in a common framework, specifically by utilizing a cost-benefit approach. As with other animals, individual access to resources likely plays an important role in shaping human dispersal, and the model explores the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Over a series of time steps, individuals must decide whether to stay in their natal area or disperse, given their states (wealth, marital, and inheritance status) and the environmental constraints on dispersal. Costs of dispersal include time and an initial drop in wealth, while the benefit is the potential of the dispersal area to increase wealth. The model determines whether dispersing or staying results in the highest fitness, where fitness is a function of individual wealth and years married. The model shows that dispersal is favorable under a wide range of environmental conditions, but that it also varies predictably according to individual states. Men of middle wealth values disperse under a wider variety of circumstances than poorer or wealthier men. Wealthy men, who are particularly sensitive to the time cost and mortality risk associated with dispersing, appear to adopt a more conservative dispersal strategy than poorer men, who are more sensitive to the wealth cost and wealth growth rate associated with dispersing. Dispersal behavior is also contingent on its effects on an individual's probability of marrying or inheriting wealth. Finally, the model fosters an examination of how the interaction of life events, and their directions of causation, can be studied. Received: 6 May 1998 / Received in revised form: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999     

TWIN: a TWo-stage INdex to evaluate ecological quality status in lagoon environments by means of hard bottom zoobenthos

The macrobenthos colonizing the artificial hard bottoms in lagoons has been used in biomonitoring programs as it requires easy sampling procedures and provides a variety of responses to different environmental pressures, like marine or continental influence, eutrophication, and urban pollution. In this paper we present the development and application of a new TWo-stage INdex (TWIN), aimed to assess water quality of lagoon environments using the hard bottom macrobenthos community. TWIN is calculated in two separate stages. First, the presence and abundance of macrobenthic species are used to define, through a fuzzy model, a station's membership grade in six pre-defined ecological sectors (Lagoon Mouth, Vivified Lagoon, Rough Eutrophic, Calm Eutrophic, Urban, Estuarine), each corresponding to characteristic communities. Then a formula links the membership grades to the five ecological status classes ranging from high to bad quality, as requested by the European Water Framework Directive. This method was tested in four Adriatic lagoons: the results are consistent with literature information and expert judgement, therefore we propose its use in the definition of water quality in lagoons.     

典型云南高原湖泊叶绿素a与影响因子的定量关系及对比分析

湖泊富营养化的影响因子涉及水文、物化、生物等多方面,具有复合性和非线性特征,定量化其与影响因素间的相关关系有助于识别影响湖泊营养状态的关键因子,可以用较低的成本、较短的时间达到理想的控制效果.云南高原湖泊具有易发生富营养化的自然和气候特征,对其富营养化发生条件及影响因子的分析可为科学的控制决策提供参考.本文选取云南滇池、程海、抚仙湖和异龙湖4个高原湖泊,比较湖泊自然特征与流域社会经济条件的异同;构建包括绝对主成分多元线性回归分析(APCS-MLR)、结构方程模型(SEM)及人工神经网络模型(ANN)的综合分析方法,重点关注并确定浮游初级生产力的代表指标(叶绿素a,Chla)与相关影响因子间的定量相关关系.研究发现:14个湖泊中,对Chla浓度变化影响最大的均为理化因子,但在各湖中该影响的正、负性及不同理化因子的贡献权重有较大差异;2流域污染源构成的不同在一定程度上影响了入湖的氮、磷负荷,使4个湖泊表现出不同的营养盐限制性特征;3流域面积、湖泊形态及湖体水动力条件影响着营养盐在湖体中的迁移转换,造成4个湖泊富营养化的差异性特征;4对Chla与影响因子间因果关联的识别须结合深入的机理过程分析.     

减推力起飞对NOx排放影响计算方法研究

伴随着航空公司对未来几年氮氧化物(NOx)排放量增长的预测,量化机场NOx排放量日益重要。根据国际民航组织认证的发动机排放数据,在研究推力对NOx排放的影响时,通常模拟4个推力级别:100%(起飞阶段)、85%(爬坡阶段)、30%(进近阶段)、7%(慢车阶段)。美国联邦航空局设计了模型——排放和扩散模拟系统,利用该模型对4个阶段分别进行模拟。结果表明,飞机在最大推力时产生的NOx量最多。分析了起飞阶段减推力下起飞对机场年NOx排放量的影响,通过排放和扩散模拟系统,研究了一系列算法,用于预测推力与NOx排放量的关系。     

The concept of the Portuguese National Ecological Reserve: constraints and impossibilities in the Azores Archipelago

The biophysical features of small islands (SI) distinguish them from other territories; isolation, small size and several anthropogenic pressures reduce the resilience of ecosystems and increase their vulnerability to global changes. Many SI have a shortage of infrastructures, institutions and technical/financial resources that hinder planning and require different integrated solutions. In Portugal, the National Ecological Reserve (NER) is legally binding for spatial planning instruments. It aims to defend natural values and areas of ecological value, or sensibility, or susceptible to natural hazards. However, the criteria for the design of NER are strictly set for mainland territory, not taking into account specific features of small islands. A case study of the Azores Archipelago is used to demonstrate that spatial planning instruments should be adapted to island contexts. Such adaptation will increase the effectiveness of their implementation in relation to the protection of natural resources, stability of biophysical structures and prevention of natural hazards. Observing the main differences between mainland and the Azores Archipelago it is possible to define a methodological transposition of the NER aims and goals into an island context. This approach is an answer to the constraints in effective adaptation of spatial planning instruments for islands.     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

吐鲁番市历史文化遗址环境生态敏感性综合分析

针对历史文化资源保护的迫切需求利用高精度的地形数据和生态环境调查资料在GIS技术的支持下进行了历史文化遗址环境生态敏感性评价。以吐鲁番市区的历史文化遗址环境生态敏感性问题为研究对象选取高程等9个敏感性因子,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定敏感性因子权重结合GIS空间分析技术得到吐鲁番市区历史文化遗址环境生态敏感性结果。结果表明:吐鲁番市区历史文化遗址的生态敏感性总体较高,区域差异比较明显。国家级遗址和自治区级遗址都处在高度敏感状态,县市级遗址处在中度敏感状态,急需加强保护。最后提出分类保护措施为今后生态防范措施的针对性提供科学依据。