黑河流域磷迁移转化过程连续模拟研究

以西安市的主要供水水源黑河流域为例,在Matlab软件辅助下,使用蓄满产流模型、逆高斯分布汇流模型、水沙关系模型以及澳大利亚学者Viney所提出的营养物迁移转化模型对黑河流域1981～1990年磷的迁移转化过程进行了连续模拟,模拟了磷的输出情况,预测了黑河流域磷污染负荷量.结果表明:模拟结果符合磷素流失的一般规律,年径流量大的年份,从流域输出的磷素也较多,反之,则较小;对磷的连续模拟结果与实测插补延长后总磷年负荷量的相对误差基本上在±30%以内,结果较合理,由此表明该法可用于黑河流域磷素迁移转化的连续模拟.同时,本文模型只是流域非点源污染连续模拟的初步尝试,尚需进行进一步检验、改进和完善.     

National pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools

The recently-adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will have significant implications for national development planning in both developed and developing countries in the post-2015 period to 2030. Integrated, nationally-owned SDG strategies will be at the centre of national efforts to implement the new sustainable development agenda. The long-run processes and systems perspective that are inherent in the SDGs present complex analytical problems for policymakers and analysts. Scenario analysis and quantitative modelling will be important analytical tools to support national sustainable development planning, and there is an increasingly sophisticated suite of models available to decision makers. This paper reviews and assesses a broad range of different quantitative models that have the potential to support national development planning for the SDGs. The study develops a typology and inventory of 80 different models, and then reviews the comparative strengths, weaknesses and general utility of different models through an initial screening and subsequent multi-criteria analysis of short-listed models. Current gaps in model capabilities are highlighted in the context of providing analytical support for national development planning for the SDGs. While some existing models are particularly relevant, it is unlikely that an ideal model can analyse all SDG targets and variables of interest within a single modelling framework. Top-down ‘macro framework’ models are likely to be more useful for undertaking system-level or economy-wide scenario analysis driven by the national long-term goals and targets, and for exploring trade-offs and synergies among sectors. Bottom-up sectoral models will be able to support far more detailed option-level impact analysis of concrete interventions, technologies and investments. Combining both approaches within an analytical framework will provide a robust approach for analysis and decision-making. The results highlight a range of potential gaps in current modelling capabilities, and provide some new tools to assist with model selection.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

Safer Truck Front Design for Pedestrian Impacts*

Truck and bus frontal impacts account for a major proportion of pedestrian fatalities in many less motorized countries. To understand this phenomenon, we have collected injury data on pedestrian impacts with buses and trucks and performed computer simulations to identify critical design parameters at 15–45 km/h impact velocities for further investigation. A male dummy which was scaled to fifty percentile Indian dimensions has been used for simulations using MADYMO. Bumper height, bumper offset and grille inclination affect the pelvis and thorax forces and Head Injury Criterion values critically. Bumper width has less effect. Simulations were performed to optimize for the above–mentioned three parameters. Changes in front geometric parameters reduce injury to the upper body and head below safety limits for the existing force–displacement properties but do not affect leg injuries significantly. Hence bumpers need to be made less stiff. Injury data shows that pedestrians also sustain tibia fractures in bus/truck impacts in apparent low velocity impacts. The computer modeling does not offer adequate explanation for this phenomenon. These simulations confirm that it is theoretically possible to make truck/bus fronts safer for pedestrians in impacts up to 35 km/h.     

URBAN INFLUENCE ON PHOSPHORUS AND SEDIMENT LOADING OF WEST POINT LAKE,GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: West Point Lake is a 10,360 ha mainstream impoundment of the Chattahoochee River located 95 kilometers downstream of Atlanta, Georgia. Origins and magnitude of external total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) loads from the West Point Lake basin were estimated over a one-year period. Partitioning the drainage basin allowed the sources of these loads to be determined. The upper subbasin area, from Franklin, Georgia, to the headwaters of the Chattahoochee River, contributed 96 percent of the discharge and 97 percent of the TP and TSS loads into West Point Lake. The lower subbasin area, from Franklin to West Point Lake dam, only contributed 3 percent of the TP and TSS loads. Ninety-one percent and 87 percent of the TP and TSS loads, respectively, from the upper subbasin originated from the Atlanta area. Point sources discharged 70 percent and 3 percent of the upper subbasin TP and TSS loads, respectively. A large portion (66 percent) of the TP from the upper subbasin was in the bioavailable form.     

CO-KRIGING TO INCORPORATE SCREENING DATA: HUDSON RIVER SEDIMENT PCBs1

ABSTRACT: Kriging methods of geostatistical analysis provide valuable techniques for analysis of sediment contamination problems, including interpolation of concentration maps from point data and estimation of global mean concentrations. Sample collection efforts frequently include preliminary screening data of considerably more extensive coverage than the laboratory analyses on which estimation is usually based. How should these be incorporated in kriging? Screening and laboratory analysis constitute two separate estimates of the same spatial field but of very different characteristics. A modified version of co-kriging is developed to include the imprecise screening information in the analysis of contaminant distribution. Use of the method is demonstrated on a data set of sediment PCB samples from the Upper Hudson River, for which preliminary categorical mass spectrometry screening was used to select a smaller set of samples for gas chromatograph analysis. The method is widely applicable to many situations of contaminant and natural resource estimation.     

A COMPARISON OF HAND- AND SPLINE-DRAWN PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR MOUNTAINOUS MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Average annual precipitation for the period 1961–1990 was estimated for a mountainous region in Montana with a Laplacian thin-plate spline (ANUSPLIN) and compared to a hand-drawn map. Input data included latitude, longitude, and elevation from a three-arc-second U.S. Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model of the Bozeman and Billings 1 × 2 topographic quadrangles and precipitation data at 96 stations. The two maps are similar in appearance. Digital comparison of the two maps with ARC/INFO's Grid tools shows that mean annual precipitation for the hand-contoured map is 22.9 inches and for the ANUSPLIN map is 23.7 inches. Of the 5,760,000 cells, 53 percent showed no difference between ANUSPLIN and hand-drawn maps; 19 percent showed a two-inch difference, and 28 percent showed more than 2 inches difference. Input data and model output at the same location are not different (standard deviation 1.77, p-value 0.76). Hand-drawn maps show two inches more precipitation during the 1961–90 period than during the 1941–1970 period. Similarly, measured data at 73 sites for the period 1961–1990 are on average 2.4 inches higher than the same stations during the 1941–1970 period. The difference is significant (p-value > 0.0001).     

NON-ZERO LOWER LIMIT IN LOW FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS?1

ABSTRACT: The implications of fitting distributions with non-zero lower limits to low flow data are examined. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to annual minimum flow series from 60 long term stations in Canada. The relations between the estimated lower limit and three sampling variables (skewness, smallest, and largest observations) were investigated. The lower limit strongly depends on the sample skewness; it varies directly with the sample skewness, which in turn is highly influenced by the largest observation. For a given skewness, the value of the estimated lower limit is determined by the value of the smallest observation. Therefore, the lower limit cannot be accurately determined, and the resulting low flow estimates will be either too small or too high.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.