LONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE EVERGLADES AS PREDICTED BY A VOLLENWEIDER-TYPE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic phosphorus loading, mainly from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA), is believed to be the primary cause of eutrophication in the Everglades. The state of Florida has adopted a plan for addressing Everglades eutrophication problems by reducing anthropogenic phosphorus loads through the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in agricultural watersheds and the construction of stormwater treatment areas (STAs). Optimizing the effectiveness of these STAs for reducing phosphorus concentrations from agricultural runoff is a critical component of the District's comprehensive Everglades protection effort. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a simple tool that can be used to estimate STAs’performance and evaluate management alternatives considered in the Everglades restoration efforts. The model was tested at two south Florida wetland sites and then was used to simulate several management alternatives and predict ecosystem responses to reduced external phosphorus (P) loadings. Good agreement between model predictions at the two wetland sites and actual observations indicated that the model can be used as a management tool to predict wetlands’response to reductions in external phosphorus load and long-term P levels in aquatic ecosystems. Model results showed that lowering P content of the Everglades Protection Area (EPA) depends on reducing P loads originating from EAA discharges, not from rainfall. Assuming no action is taken (e.g., no BMPs or STAs implemented), the steady state model predicted that the average concentration within the modeled area of the marsh would reach 20 μg L^?1 within five years. With an 85 percent reduction in P loading, the steady-state model predicted that Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) P concentration will equilibrate at approximately 10 μ L^?1, while elimination of all loadings is projected to further reduce marsh P to values less than 10 μg L^?1.     

LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART II: MODEL APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the application of a river basin scale hydrologic model (described in Part I) to Richland and Chambers Creeks watershed (RC watershed) in upper Trinity River basin in Texas. The inputs to the model were accumulated from hydro-graphic and geographic databases and maps using a raster-based GIS. Available weather data from 12 weather stations in and around the watershed and stream flow data from two USGS stream gauge station for the period 1965 to 1984 were used in the flow calibration and validation. Sediment calibration was carried out for the period 1988 through 1994 using the 1994 sediment survey data from the Richland-Chambers lake. Sediment validation was conducted on a subwatershed (Mill Creek watershed) situated on Chambers Creek of the RC watershed. The model was evaluated by well established statistical and visual methods and was found to explain at least 84 percent and 65 percent of the variability in the observed stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In addition, the model predicted the accumulated sediment load within 2 percent and 9 percent from the observed data for the RC watershed and Mill Creek watershed, respectively.     

LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART I: MODEL DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: A conceptual, continuous time model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed to assist water resource managers in assessing the impact of management on water supplies and nonpoint source pollution in watersheds and large river basins. The model is currently being utilized in several large area projects by EPA, NOAA, NRCS and others to estimate the off-site impacts of climate and management on water use, non-point source loadings, and pesticide contamination. Model development, operation, limitations, and assumptions are discussed and components of the model are described. In Part II, a GIS input/output interface is presented along with model validation on three basins within the Upper Trinity basin in Texas.     

Simulating Spatial and Temporal Context of Forest Management Using Hypothetical Landscapes

/ Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management, none cause greater concern than the impacts of timber harvesting on the composition, structure, and function of landscape ecosystems. A timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) was used to simulate different intensities of timber harvest on 23,592-ha hypothetical landscapes with varying sizes of timber production areas and different initial stand age distributions. Our objectives were to: (1) determine the relative effects of the size of timber production areas, harvest intensity, method used to extract timber, and past timber harvest activity on the production of forest interior and edge; and (2) evaluate how past management (in the form of different initial stand age distributions) constrains future timber production options. Our simulations indicated that the total area of forest interior and the amount of forest edge were primarily influenced by the intensity of timber harvest and the size of openings created by harvest. The size of the largest block of interior forest was influenced most by the size of timber harvests, but the intensity of harvest was also significant, and the size of nontimber production areas was important when harvests were numerous and widely dispersed within timber management areas, as is often the case in managed forests. Stand age-class distributions produced by past harvest activity limited the amount of timber production primarily when group selection was used, but also limited clear-cutting when recent harvest levels were high.KEY WORDS: Simulation modeling; Timber harvest; Historical context; Spatial context; Landscape pattern; Forest interior; Forest edge     

ESTIMATION OF EPISODIC STREAM ACIDIFICATION BASED ON MONTHLY OR ANNUAL SAMPLING1

ABSTRACT: Programs of monthly or annual stream water sampling will rarely observe the episodic extremes of acidification chemistry that occur during brief, unpredictable runoff events. When viewed in the context of data from several streams, however, baseflow measurements of variables such as acid neutralizing capacity, pH and NO₃· are likely to be highly correlated with the episodic extremes of those variables from the same stream and runoff season. We illustrate these correlations for a water chemistry record, nearly two years in length, obtained from intensive sampling of 13 small Northeastern U.S. streams studied during USEPA's Episodic Response Project. For these streams, simple regression models estimate episodic extremes of acid neutralizing capacity, pH, NO₃·, Ca²⁺, SO₄^2?, and total dissolved Al with good relative accuracy from statistics of monthly or annual index samples. Model performances remain generally stable when episodic extremes in the second year of sampling are predicted from first-year models. Monthly or annual sampling designs, in conjunction with simple empirical models calibrated and maintained through intensive sampling every few years, may estimate episodic extremes of acidification chemistry with economy and reasonable accuracy. Such designs would facilitate sampling a large number of streams, thereby yielding estimates of the prevalence of episodic acidification at regional scales.     

A SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION AND WATER QUALITY MODEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The influence of sediment resuspension on the water quality of shallow lakes is well documented. However, a search of the literature reveals no deterministic mass-balance eutrophication models that explicitly include resuspension. We modified the Lake Okeechobee water quality model - which uses the Water Analysis Simulation Package (WASP) to simulate algal dynamics and phosphorus, nitrogen, and oxygen cycles - to include inorganic suspend. ed solids and algorithms that: (1) define changes in depth with changes in volume; (2) compute sediment resuspension based on bottom shear stress; (3) compute partition coefficients for ammonia and ortho-phosphorus to solids; and (4) relate light attenuation to solids concentrations. The model calibration and validation were successful with the exception of dissolved inorganic nitrogen species which did not correspond well to observed data in the validation phase. This could be attributed to an inaccurate formulation of algal nitrogen preference and/or the absence of nitrogen fixation in the model. The model correctly predicted that the lake is light-limited from resuspended solids, and algae are primarily nitrogen limited. The model simulation suggested that biological fluxes greatly exceed external loads of dissolved nutrients; and sediment-water interactions of organic nitrogen and phosphorus far exceed external loads. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that parameters affecting resuspension, settling, sediment nutrient and solids concentrations, mineralization, algal productivity, and algal stoichiometry are factors requiring further study to improve our understanding of the Lake Okeechobee ecosystem.     

IMPROVEMENT OF LEACHATE PREDICTION THROUGH MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE LAYERS1

ABSTRACT: Existing leachate prediction models over- or underestimate leachate generation by up to three orders of magnitude. Practical experiments show that channeled flow in waste leads to rapid discharge of large leachate volumes and heterogeneous moisture distributions. In order to more accurately predict leachate generation, leachate models must be improved. To predict moisture movement through waste, the one-domain water balance model HELP, and two-domain PREFLO, are tested. Experimental waste and leachate flow values are compared with model predictions. When calibrated with experimental parameters, the HELP model yields reasonable predictions of cumulative leachate flow and PREFLO provides estimates of breakthrough time. In the short term, field capacity has to be reduced to 0.12 and effective storage and hydraulic conductivity of the waste must be increased to 0.2 and 2.2 cm/s respectively. In the long term, a new modeling approach must be developed to adequately describe the moisture movement mechanisms.     

RECYCLING INPUT DATA DURING ANALYTIC ELEMENT MODELING NEAR INDIANAPOLIS,INDIANA1

ABSTRACT: Overlapping and adjacent ground water investigations are common in areas where aquifers are threatened by industrial development. In the Indianapolis area in Marion County, Indiana, a patchwork of ground water flow models have been used during the past 20 years to evaluate ground water resources and to determine the effects of local contamination. In every case these ground water models were constructed from scratch. Site specific finite difference grids or finite element meshes inhibit the direct reuse of input data when the area of interest shifts. Because the aquifer is not discretized into a grid or mesh with analytic element models, there are unique opportunities for direct reuse of model input data. In two applications of this principle we illustrate how the newly emerging analytic element method allows a fairly straightforward reuse of model input data from previous models in the same general area. In analytic element models of Central Indiana, streams and their tributaries are represented in different resolutions. Input data items of several modeling studies are stored and cataloged on disk in such a manner that they can be selectively retrieved by a data management program PREPRO. In this manner, a new ground water model can be set up quickly with input data which have been previously defined and tested during model calibration.     

URBAN STORMWATER QUANTITY/QUALITY MODELING USING THE SCS METHOD AND EMPIRICAL EQUATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Runoff depth and pollutant loading (Biological Oxygen Demand [BOD₅], Total Suspended Solids [TSS], Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen [TKN] and lead [Pb]) computations of urban stormwater runoff from four small sites (i.e., 14.7–58.3 ac) in South Florida were performed using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) hydrology method and empirical equations developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Each site had different predominant land uses (i.e., low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). Quantity and quality data from 95 storm events at these sites were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and used for calibration of the methodology to derive appropriate input parameters. Calibrated input parameters were developed for each land use to test the applicability of the methodology in small sub-tropical urban watersheds, and to provide hydrologists with a way to select appropriate parameter values for planning studies. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the methodology. Comparisons of predicted versus measured data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings were performed.     

Ecological assessment of natural resources in agroecosystems of Dutch Lowland Peat area

In ecological assessment many abiotic and biotic indicators, reflecting the many facets of ecosystems, are used. Reporting on the state of the environment requires that information on separate indicators be integrated into comprehensive yardsticks or indices. In this paper we describe a method for assessing the quality of natural resources in agroecosystems and present a case study on the Dutch Lowland Peat area. Using a coherent set of physical, chemical, and biotic indicators, we compare the present situation with the long-term policy objective of strategic policy plans. Results are depicted in a radial plot. The present ecological quality of the Lowland Peat area has been found to deviate strongly from that of the desired state.