MODEL ACCURACY IN SNOWMELT-RUNOFF FORECASTS EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 20 DAYS1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the performance of snowmelt-runoff models in conditions approximating real-time forecast situations. These tests are one part of an intercomparison of models recently conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily runoff from the Canadian snowmelt basin Illecille. waet (1155 km², 509–3150 m a.s.l.) was forecast for 1 to 20 days ahead. The performance of models was better than in a previous WMO project, which dealt with runoff simulations from historical data, for the following reasons: (1) conditions for models were more favorable than a real-time forecast situation because measured input data and not meteorological forecast inputs were distributed to the modelers; (2) the selected test basin was relatively easy to handle and familiar from the previous WMO project; and (3) all kinds of updating were allowed so that some models even improved their accuracy towards longer forecast times. Based on this experience, a more realistic follow-up project can be imagined which would include temperature forecasts and quantitative precipitation forecasts instead of measured data.     

ECONOMICS OF SCREENING FOR PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: In the United States, millions of dollars are currently spent to monitor water quality for a whole suite of organic compounds. However, results of several surveys conducted in the past decade indicate that only a few pesticides occur in a small proportion of wells. Screening methods based on historical evidence of contamination patterns and knowledge of the locales will have significant potential to reduce these costs and effectively identify contamination problems. In this paper, the economics of utilizing two screening methods, sequential analysis and sample compositing, in the design of monitoring strategies is captured In the form of mathematical models and illustrated for a state-level monitoring program. When the two methods are adopted, the total analytical cost to conclusively identify contaminated wells in a network of 4,000 wells is shown to range from $12,500 to $1,575,000 depending on the extent of contamination. In contrast, the total analytical cost of a conventional program where all the wells in the network are sampled and tested for a standard suite of pesticides at a cost of $250/sample is one million dollars. Given such wide range in costs, it is prudent to incorporate the screening concepts presented in this paper in the development of cost-effective monitoring programs.     

ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING GROUNDWATER QUALITY STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: A model for estimating the probability of exceeding groundwater quality standards at environmental receptors based on a simple contaminant transport model is described. The model is intended for locations where knowledge about site-specific hydrogeologic conditions is limited. An efficient implementation methodology using numerical Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The uncertainty in the contaminant transport system due to uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity is directly calculated in the Monte Carlo simulations. Numerous variations of the deterministic parameters of the model provide an indication of the change in exceedance probability with change in parameter value. The results of these variations for a generic example are presented in a concise graphical form which provides insight into the topology of the exceedance probability surface. This surface can be used to assess the impact of the various parameters on exceedance probability.     

PREDICTING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL FLOOD DYNAMICS USING A PRECALIBRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A large storm in December 1990 allowed the evaluation of flood predictions from a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that had been previously calibrated on the West Fork of Walker Branch Watershed, a gauged 37.5 ha catchment near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model predicts both hydrograph dynamics and the spatial distribution of overland flow using an index based on topography. Maximum extent of overland flow during the storm was determined from patterns of leaf litter removal from valley bottoms. Both the flood hydrograph and the extent of overland flow were accurately predicted using model parameters obtained from a three-month period of normal flow conditions during 1983.     

REGIONAL SCALE TREND MONITORING OF INDICATORS OF TROPHIC CONDITION OF LAKES1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed a sample survey design to answer questions about the ecological condition and trends in condition of U.S. ecological resources. To meet the objectives, the design relies on a probability sample of the resource population of interest (e.g., a random sample of lakes) each year on which measurements are made during an index period. Natural spatial and temporal variability and variability in the sampling process all affect the ability to describe the status of a population and the sensitivity for trend detection. We describe the important components of variance and estimate their magnitude for indicators of trophic condition of lakes to illustrate the process. We also describe models for trend detection and use them to demonstrate the sensitivity of the proposed design to detect trends. If the variance structure that develops during the probability surveys is like that synthesized from available databases and the literature, then the trends in common indicators of trophic condition of the specified magnitude should be detectable within about a decade for Secchi disk transparency (0.5–1 percentiyear) and total phosphorus (2–3 percent/year), but not for chlorophyll-a (> 3–4 percent/year), which will take longer.     

ALAWAT: A spatially allocated watershed model for approximating stream,sediment, and pollutant flows in Hawaii,USA

The Ala Wai Canal Watershed Model (ALAWAT) is a planning-level watershed model for approximating direct runoff, streamflow, sediment loads, and loads for up to five pollutants. ALAWAT uses raster GIS data layers including land use, SCS soil hydrologic groups, annual rainfall, and subwatershed delineations as direct model parameter inputs and can use daily total rainfall from up to ten rain gauges and streamflow from up to ten stream gauges. ALAWAT uses a daily time step and can simulate flows for up to ten-year periods and for up to 50 subwatersheds. Pollutant loads are approximated using a user-defined combination of rating curve relationships, mean event concentrations, and loading/washoff parameters for specific subwatersheds, land uses, and times of year. Using ALAWAT, annual average streamflow and baseflow relationships and urban suspended sediment loads were approximated for the Ala Wai Canal watershed (about 10,400 acres) on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Annual average urban suspended sediments were approximated using two methods: mean event concentrations and pollutant loading and washoff. Parameters for the pollutant loading and washoff method were then modified to simulate the effect of various street sweeping intervals on sediment loads.     

Ecosystem approaches to environmental quality assessment

Environmental quality assessment has to focus more on the quality of whole ecosystems, instead of focusing on the direct effects of a specific stressor, because of a more integrated environmetal policy approach. Yet, how can the ecosystem quality be measured? Partly this is a normative question, a question of what is considered good and bad. At the same time, it is a scientific question, dealing with the problem of low the state of a system as complex as an ecosystem could be measured. Measuring all abiotic and biotic components, not to mention their many relationships, is not feasible. In this article we review several approaches dealing with this scientific question. Three approaches are distinguished; they differ in type of variable set and ecosystem model used. As a result of this, the information about the state of the ecosystem differs: ultimate breadth, comprising information about the whole ecosystem, is at the expense of detail, while ultimate detail is at the expense of breadth. We discuss whether the resultant quality assessments differ in character and are therefore suitable to answer different policy questions.     

Economics of an ecotourism operation in Belize

The economic inputs and outputs for the Possum Point Biological Station in Belize during 1990–1992 are described to illustrate some aspects of an ecotourism operation. Eight hundred fifty-four people in 59 groups visited Possum Point during the study period to tour rain forests, estuaries, and coral reefs. The economic input to Possum Point from these groups increased from $74,552 in 1990 to $166,268 in 1992. Outputs were for license fees, capital improvements, goods and services, labor, fossil fuels, and development of a historic sugar mill site. An annual donation was also made to a scholarship fund for local Belizean students. The net cash balance of income and outputs changed from negative (−$6678) in 1990 to positive (+$4811) in 1992, suggesting development of the economic operation. Possum Point meets the economic criteria for ecotourism by feeding back some tourist monies for community and environmental support, particularly donations for the sugar mill site and the scholarship fund. Most of the outputs from Possum Point (about 80%) were retained in the local economy through employment and purchases, which have a positive influence on the local community. We conclude that ecotourism operations, such as Possum Point, offer important sustainable development opportunities for Belize.     

Ecoregions and ecodistricts: Ecological regionalizations for the Netherlands' environmental policy

For communicating data on the state of the environment to policy makers, various integrative frameworks are used, including regional integration. For this kind of integration we have developed two related ecological regionalizations, ecoregions and ecodistricts, which are two levels in a series of classifications for hierarchically nested ecosystems at different spatial scale levels. We explain the compilation of the maps from existing geographical data, demonstrating the relatively holistic, a priori integrated approach. The resulting maps are submitted to discriminant analysis to test the consistancy of the use of mapping characteristics, using data on individual abiotic ecosystem components from a national database on a 1-km² grid. This reveals that the spatial patterns of soil, groundwater, and geomorphology correspond with the ecoregion and ecodistrict maps. Differences between the original maps and maps formed by automatically reclassifying 1-km² cells with these discriminant components are found to be few. These differences are discussed against the background of the principal dilemma between deductive, a priori integrated, and inductive, a posteriori, classification.