Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

环境空气中大气颗粒物源解析的研究进展

介绍了国内外用于大气颗粒物源解析研究的受体模型的进展情况，对受体模型的研究体系，测量分析技术、研究方法作了详细阐述，并对源解析近期的研究热点及发展趋势作了评述。     

孙虎地区烃源岩生排烃史模拟及结果分析

生排烃史是研究成藏过程的关键环节,本文在恢复埋藏史的基础上,通过建立生排烃史模型,模拟并编制各时期的生排烃强度等值线图并分析其生排烃史。结果表明,孙虎地区存在持续沉降型、早期沉降型和二次沉降型三种生排烃类型。沙三段至东营组沉积末期只在北区和前磨头洼陷中心有少量的烃生成排出;孔二段在沙一段沉积末期生排烃范围有所扩大,东营组沉积末期几乎扩展到全区。本区生排烃总量较少,属贫油区块。     

武隆县旅游开发中的生态安全对策研究

旅游开发中的生态安全问题与整个旅游产业的可持续发展是息息相关的。本文通过对重庆武隆旅游开发现状的调查，对其旅游开发过程中的生态安全问题对策进行了研究，以期对重庆旅游业的可持续发展，以及整个西部旅游业的可持续发展提供借鉴和参考作用。     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady‐state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

Associating Ecosystem Service Losses with Indicators of Toxicity in Habitat Equivalency Analysis

Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

Assessing Ecological Integrity of Ozark Rivers to Determine Suitability for Protective Status

Preservation of extraordinary natural resources, protection of water quality, and restoration of impaired waters require a strategy to identify and protect least-disturbed streams and rivers. We applied two objective, quantitative methods to determine stream ecological integrity of headwater reaches of 10 Ozark rivers, 5 with Wild and Scenic River federal protective status. Thirty-four variables representing macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage characteristics, in-stream habitat, riparian vegetation, water quality, and watershed attributes were quantified for each river and analyzed using two multivariate approaches. The first approach, cluster and discriminant analyses, identified two groups of river with only one variable (% forested watershed) reliably distinguishing groups. Our second approach employed ordinal scaling to compare variables for each river to conceptually ideal conditions that were developed as a composite of optimal attributes among the 10 rivers. The composite distance of each river from ideal was then calculated using a unidimensional ranking technique. Two rivers without Wild and Scenic River designation ranked highest relative to ideal (highest ecological integrity), and two others, also without designation, ranked most distant from ideal (lowest ecological integrity). Fish density, number of intolerant fish species, and invertebrate density were influential biotic variables for scaling. Contributing physical variables included riparian forest cover, water nitrate concentration, water turbidity, percentage of forested watershed, percentage of private land ownership, and road density. These methods provide a framework for refinement and application in other regions to facilitate the process of establishing least-disturbed reference conditions and identifying rivers for protection and restoration.     

Microbial Fe(III) Reduction in Acidic Mining Lake Sediments after Addition of an Organic Substrate and Lime

To elucidate the role of Fe(III) reduction in mining lake sediments amended with organic substrates, we performed a large (10 m diameter) enclosure experiment in which sediments were amended with Carbokalk, a waste product from sugar industry containing organic carbon and lime. Fe(III) reduction rates were determined monthly by measuring the accumulation of Fe(II) in the sediments in the field. Fe(III) reduction rates were also determined by incubating sediment samples with synthetic Fe(III) oxyhydroxide under in situ temperature in the laboratory. Sulfate reduction was selectively inhibited in the Fe(III) reduction experiments by addition of sodium molybdate. Sulfate reduction was measured by accumulation of reduced inorganic sulfides in the field and by ³⁵S radiotracer using a core injection technique. Sediment incubation and determination of sulfate reduction rates with radiotracer showed that sulfate reduction and direct microbial Fe(III) reduction occured simultaneously in the upper centimeters of the sediments and that both processes contributed to alkalinity generation. However, Fe(III) reduction was the initial process and rates were at least 3.5 fold higher than sulfate reduction rates. The results indicate that the presence of suitable anions for Fe(II) precipitation as carbonate or sulfide is needed in order to prevent loss of potential alkalinity by Fe(II) diffusion and reoxidation in the water column.     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.