城市生态环境与可持续发展评价指标体系研究

本文从探讨城市生态环境与可持续发展的战略关系入手,在进行调查研究的基础上,提出了城市生态环境与可持续发展评价指标体系,旨在为城市的全面、协调、可持续发展提供一点科学管理依据。     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

Influence of non-reactive particle cloud on heterogeneous detonation propagation

An interaction of a detonation wave propagating in the cellular detonation mode with a cloud of inert particles is investigated numerically. The analysis of results allows the regimes of propagation of the heterogeneous plane Chapman–Jouguet and cellular detonations and their suppression to be identified. The influence of various parameters of the inert cloud is demonstrated. The critical length of the cloud sufficient for detonation suppression is determined. It is shown that the disperse composition and the nonuniform distribution of particles in the cloud are important parameters affecting the detonation propagation mode.     

Modeling of a cryogenic liquid pool boiling by CFD simulation

A boiling model is developed by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code to calculate the source term of a cryogenic liquid spill. The model includes the effect of the changing ground temperature on the vaporization rate of the cryogenic liquid. Simulations are performed for liquid nitrogen. The model can describe different boiling regimes (film, transition and nucleate). The heat flux calculated for each boiling regimes are compared to the experimental data from literature. The developed numerical model seems to have a good ability to predict the heat flux for the film boiling stage. Model development is still necessary to improve the prediction of the nucleate boiling regime. Overall, the approach shows very promising results to model the complex physical phenomena involved in in the vaporization of cryogenic liquid pool spilled on ground.     

Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

Expanding Kenya's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity to maximize coverage of plant diversity

Biodiversity is highly valuable and critically threatened by anthropogenic degradation of the natural environment. In response, governments have pledged enhanced protected‐area coverage, which requires scarce biological data to identify conservation priorities. To assist this effort, we mapped conservation priorities in Kenya based on maximizing alpha (species richness) and beta diversity (species turnover) of plant communities while minimizing economic costs. We used plant‐cover percentages from vegetation surveys of over 2000 plots to build separate models for each type of diversity. Opportunity and management costs were based on literature data and interviews with conservation organizations. Species richness was predicted to be highest in a belt from Lake Turkana through Mount Kenya and in a belt parallel to the coast, and species turnover was predicted to be highest in western Kenya and along the coast. Our results suggest the expanding reserve network should focus on the coast and northeastern provinces of Kenya, where new biological surveys would also fill biological data gaps. Meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity target of 17% terrestrial coverage by 2020 would increase representation of Kenya's plant communities by 75%. However, this would require about 50 times more funds than Kenya has received thus far from the Global Environment Facility.     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

京津冀及周边区域PM2.5叠加沙尘重污染过程特征及预报效果分析

选取京津冀及周边区域2018年11月23日至12月4日一次大范围、长时间且PM_(2.5)叠加两次沙尘传输的复合型重度污染过程开展特征研究,分析了首要污染物PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)浓度的发展演变,以及污染气象影响因素;结合激光雷达地基和车载走航监测结果,以及HYSPLIT后向轨迹结果,讨论了区域污染传输的情况;并对重污染期间NAQPMS、CMAQ和CAMx这3个空气质量模式的预报效果进行了回顾分析.结果表明,研究时段PM_(2.5)叠加两次沙尘传输导致区域中南部多数城市达到重至严重污染水平,张家口、北京、石家庄、邯郸和郑州PM_(10)小时峰值分别为1 589、864、794、738和766μg·m~(-3),PM_(2.5)小时峰值浓度分别为239、319、387、321和380μg·m~(-3).地面弱气压场、高湿、逆温等静稳条件和沙尘是重要的污染气象和天气因素.激光雷达地基和车载走航监测数据结合HYSPLIT后向轨迹分析表明重污染期间区域西南和东南方向发生了PM_(2.5)传输;区域两次沙尘过程主要受西北路径传输影响.此外,NAQPMS、CMAQ和CAMx这3个模式均可较好地预测到京津冀及周边区域的重污染过程,但对个别城市预报略有偏差.该次重污染过程中模式对PM_(2.5)的预报效果要好于PM_(10),这与气象模式预报、大气化学反应机制、污染源清单的不确定性,以及重污染应急措施导致的污染源排放的改变有一定关系.     

草原区煤炭开发的生态问题及其税费改革对策

锡林郭勒盟是我国重要的煤炭能源基地,近年来,煤电一体化开发为地区带来经济效益的同时也给环境带来巨大压力,大面积的草原受到破坏和威胁,引发了一系列生态问题,需要在锡盟未来的地区经济发展中引起注意。应该借鉴国际上对煤炭业开征环境保护税的经验,进行我国草原区煤炭业环境保护税费改革的制度设计和政策落实。     

钦州湾沉积物有机氯农药赋存特征与生态风险

利用GC-ECD测定了钦州湾沉积物中17种有机氯农药的含量,并对其组分分布和来源进行了分析。结果表明,样品中有机氯农药的总量为1.50～129ng/g,滴滴涕(DDTs)浓度为0.59～126ng/g,六六六(HCHs)的浓度为nd～2.65ng/g。有机氯农药的分布特征为茅尾海>钦州外湾,茅尾海东岸>西岸。组分分布特征分析显示,DDTs主要来自于历史积累,林丹在某些采样区域内有近期输入。与国内外不同地区沉积物中有机氯农药残留相比,钦州湾沉积物中有机氯农药污染处于低到中等水平。以沉积物生态风险评估值为基准的分析表明,研究区内DDT含量存在较大的生态风险。