基于层次分析法的热塑性聚氨酯及其纳米复合材料火灾危险性综合评价

聚合物的火灾危险性与热、烟、毒的释放密切相关,但采用不同指标对材料的评价结果不一致。以纳米级蒙脱土(MMT)、氢氧化铝(ATH)和聚磷酸铵(APP)为添加剂的热塑性聚氨酯(TPU)纳米复合材料为研究对象,选取其在静态管式炉、稳态管式炉和锥形量热仪中的相关实验数据,以HCN总浓度作为特殊毒性危害指标,CO和CO_2浓度为一般毒性危害指标,以热释放速率峰值、平均热释放速率、总热释放量为热危害指标,以产烟速率峰值、生烟总量为烟危害指标。进一步细分了火灾烟气中不同毒性气体对于火灾风险的影响,并运用层次分析法计算指标权重,综合评价了热塑性聚氨酯及其复合材料的火灾危险性。结果表明,当添加量为6 wt%聚磷酸铵、3 wt%氢氧化铝与3 wt%蒙脱土时,此时复合材料的火灾危险最低,证明了综合热、烟、毒三个层次来降低聚合物材料火灾危险性是可行的。     

Driving concerns among older adults: Associations with driving skill,behaviors, and experiences

Objectives: The purpose of this investigation was to determine what older adults find most concerning about driving as they age and how these concerns are related to driving skill, behaviors, and experiences.

Methods: In partnership with the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, a sample of 751 older adults ages 65 and older completed an online survey between October 2017 and May 2018. A content analysis was used to code open-ended responses about driver concerns, and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between driving concerns and driving skill, behavior, and experiences.

Results: Eighty-four percent of participants reported at least one driving concern, with 44% concerned about others’ driving, 34% concerned about their own driving, and 24% concerned about driving conditions. The most frequently mentioned driving concerns were other drivers in general, driving at night, visual ability and awareness, and other drivers being aggressive or reckless. Being concerned with their own driving was significantly associated with decreased perceived driving skill and increased odds of experiencing negative driving experiences in the past year. Being concerned about others’ driving was associated with increased odds of wearing a seat belt (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]?=?2.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 7.00), having high perceived driving skills in emergency situations (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.14, 2.12), and getting in a near crash or collision in the past year (AOR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04, 2.18).

Conclusions: Older adult drivers are frequently concerned about their own driving as well as the driving of others. Implications for future research and health practice are discussed.     

Operational leeway in work situations: do ergonomic risk assessment tools consider operational leeway for job analysis?

Our study shows that information on operational leeway is limited in the originator articles of the ergonomic risk assessment tools for prevention of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The tools’ underlying theoretical models do not consider the indicators of operational leeway, and they cannot determine the sufficiency of the situational operational leeway in a work situation. Consequently, regulation of the activity, which ensures the performance goals and the individual's health, has been overlooked. The lack of literature on indicators of situational operational leeway is one of the reasons for this deficit. Defining the indicators for this concept would be an innovation in the approach of MSD risk prevention. Developing empirically the concept of situational operational leeway in risk assessment tools would help to progress the current approach of MSD prevention. This study therefore proposes indicators of situational operational leeway to increase the representativeness and reliability of the risk assessment tools for MSDs.     

基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道影响计算及风险预测

为研究基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道的影响以及预测隧道结构的风险,通过改进的计算方法得到放坡开挖基坑引起下方既有地铁隧道的竖向和横向附加荷载、位移、相对变形曲率共6个隧道结构安全的物理表现因子;将位移计算结果与前人理论计算结果、实测数据对比验证,并分析各土层物理力学参数对6个因子的敏感性;最后,基于正态分布概率模型对较敏感的土层物理力学参数随机取值,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算6个因子各级风险发生的概率和竖向、横向2类因子综合影响下隧道结构各级风险发生的总概率。研究结果表明:与原来仅限于矩形开挖基坑的计算方法相比,改进后的计算方法适用范围更广、实用性更强;在算例二分析中,隧道竖向位移和相对变形曲率超过控制值的概率分别为12%和68.7%,其余因子均为0,隧道竖向相对变形曲率是隧道结构处于不安全状态的最主要因子;若不采取预防措施,隧道结构将有高达73.27%的概率处于不安全状态,其中有68.7%的概率处于很不安全状态。     

油气长输管道作业分级定量风险评价方法研究及应用

为客观掌握油气管道生产运营岗位主要作业风险,实现油气长输管道企业作业风险管理,提出一种作业分级定量风险评价方法。首先,辨识油气管道系统主要危险作业类型和引起作业事故的危险有害因素;然后由作业分级法确定事故发生的可能性与严重性;最后建立基于作业分级的风险矩阵,得到各作业活动的风险级别。将该方法应用于某管道公司,以该公司生产区内部高处作业为例,对作业过程中的危险有害因素进行识别与评价,得出高处作业过程中各步骤的风险程度。结果表明该评价方法具有一定的可操作性,可反映各类危险作业过程中的风险程度,为后期有针对性的风险控制提供指导,有助于公司的风险管理。     

可燃制冷剂空调用开关元件点燃危险及防爆试验分析

随着全球范围对环境问题的日益重视,R290,R32等新型制冷剂因优良的环保性能和节能效果被广泛应用于空调行业,但其属于IIA级爆炸性气体,为了进一步分析其运行过程中的防爆安全性能。通过文献数据和测试分析,可燃制冷剂空调电气元件的点燃源主要来自其工作过程中产生的电气火花。其中空调开关元件最容易产生电火花、电弧,且通过试验验证这些火花或电弧能点爆（6.5±0.5）%乙烯/空气混合物。综合IEC 60335-2-40,GB 4706.32标准要求和空调开关元件的结构特征,分析确定其应符合“nC”型防爆技术要求,并能通过“nC”型爆炸试验。针对开关元件结构尺寸小、存在爆炸试验中爆炸性混合气体多次置换和负载通、断电操作的难点问题,提出一套合理可行的爆炸试验实施方案,并通过测试应用得到验证。     

成品油站场工艺管道风险辨识与评价

为保障成品油站场工艺管道的安全平稳运行,在充分辨识风险因素的前提下,提出了一种基于KENT法和RBI的风险评价方法。首先,以风险机理分析为基础,采用SHEL模型从导致风险上升的直接原因（风险内因）和间接原因（风险外因）2个角度辨识了风险因素,并细化各因素指标项;然后借鉴KENT法,对各指标项进行评分量化;依据RBI法,采用风险外因体系修正风险内因体系的方式确定失效可能性;综合环境后果、人员后果与商业后果,明确失效后果的评价体系与计算方法;最后,结合失效可能性与失效后果进行风险评价,从风险等级和风险排序2方面为检维修决策提供依据。应用表明:该评价方法便于工艺管道风险评价的基层实施,可为基于风险的检维修决策提供有效技术支撑。     

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的煤气化职业健康风险分析

针对煤气化行业职业健康风险影响因素不确定及模糊的特点,建立了职业健康风险计算模型。该模型将模糊数学与贝叶斯网络相耦合,模拟事件概率,找出导致风险的主要因素。通过分析煤气化行业中存在的多种风险因素,应用问卷调查法和模糊集理论模拟了根节点的发生概率,得出职业健康风险概率的预测值;应用贝叶斯网络反向推理的功能计算根节点后验概率并排序,确定了薄弱环节。该模型不仅能解决概率缺失情况下的风险量化推算问题,定量进行职业健康风险评估,还可以实现关键因素的识别,并能有针对性地提出改进措施,为职业健康风险预防提供决策依据。     

基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法

为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估,提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先,通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素,从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系;其次,基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值,最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差;然后,通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影,并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小;最后,通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性,对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。     

城市公共安全规划理论与方法的探讨

分析了进行城市公共安全规划研究的意义和理论基础,并对了城市公共安全规划的方法进行了探讨。