Review on Quantitative Research Methods of Regional Sustainable Development in China

Abstract

Since the 1990s, with the in-depth study and understanding of sustainable development, quantitative study of regional sustainable development (RSD) was increasingly hot in China. Based on quantitative study of RSD from Core Periodical in China National Knowledge Infrastructure (1992–2008), statistical analysis on the annual distribution, periodicals distribution and changes of the distribution were made. And from perspectives of social–economic, ecological, systematic and emerging methods, the course, problems and trends of the quantitative study methods on RSD were examined and analyzed to get a clear summary. By the review, the context on the quantitative study of RSD was to be clarified. The study also showed that, primarily, fields involving quantitative study are expanding; second, big progresses and constant development have been made on the systematic method gradually sophisticated, the flourishing ecological method and emerging new methods in the context of cross and integration which has made complex integrated systems a more satisfactory solution; third, the method system has been more multi-angled, and the clues of independent innovation have been observed despite the fact that the introduction of imported method is the main trend. Although many problems exist, multi-scale study, dynamic timeseries study and inter-regional comparative study will be further exploited and increasingly carried out with the progress of spatial information technology, which would boost the development and application of new methods in RSD study.     

2015~2020年洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构及其环境影响因子

洪泽湖是南水北调东线工程的重要调蓄湖泊,在气候调节、防洪防汛等方面起着重要的作用.为研究洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构演替及与环境因子的关系,了解“十年禁渔”前洪泽湖生态系统状况,于2015～2020年进行了逐月监测.研究期间,总氮(TN)年平均浓度从2017年之后呈显著下降趋势,总磷(TP)和化学需氧量(COD)总体呈下降趋势,水温无明显变化趋势,水深和透明度从2015～2018年上升,之后显著下降.调查期间共鉴定有浮游植物8门102属310种,浮游植物优势门类主要包括绿藻门和硅藻门,其次为蓝藻门和甲藻门.主要优势属为栅藻(Scenedesmus)、直链藻(Aulacoseira)、隐藻(Cryptomonas)、小环藻(Cyclotella)、四角藻(Tetraedron)、微囊藻(Microcystis)和长孢藻(Dolichospermum).非度量多维尺度分析方法(NMDS)表明,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构组成在不同年份、不同季节和不同采样区域有显著差异,其变化主要是浮游植物的优势种属间再分配.NMDS分析结果显示,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构变化与水温、 TN、 TP、水深和透明度等因素有关...     

Filyos River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree‐Ring Chronologies with Nonparametric Approaches

The article presents nonparametric methods based on K nearest neighbors (KNNs), modified KNNs, and local polynomial techniques to reconstruct streamflow ensembles from tree‐ring data in Filyos River region (Turkey). Three methods were tested using cross‐validation for the overlap period, 1963‐1997 for which the tree‐ring and streamflow data are available. It was found that for the study where the length of the overlap period was limited, a nonparametric method based on a local polynomial technique provides simulations that have a slightly better solution than the other methods. After verification using standard statistical techniques, these methods were utilized to develop streamflow reconstructions from tree‐ring data for the paleo‐hydrologic period (1657‐1963). These reconstructions of seasonal low and high flows were discussed with the obtained flood duration curve. They were also compared with the historical archives and other tree‐ring reconstructions data available in the same river. Overall, the utility and limitations of these methods and the resulting streamflow simulations were discussed to assess the long‐term discharge behavior of Filyos River and to evaluate water supply reliability.     

Models predicting the fate of pollutants in rivers

The spill of 2,4,‐D in the Rhine river was used to show the evolution from simple to sophisticated models. The first simulation was done with an analytical solution of the dispersion‐advection equation without elimination. Elimination was introduced in a second simulation. The third simulation was carried out with a numerical model. This included elimination and variable dispersion. The lack of data limited the use of very detailed models.     

低浓度废水厌氧处理中不同动力学模型对比研究

采用厌氧颗粒污泥处理低浓度废水来启动实验规模的沼气提升厌氧反应器,以啤酒废水为例,厌氧反应器在温度(35±1)℃和进水COD浓度在2100~2400mg/L条件下,通过提高进水量方式,来缩短水力停留时间HRT和提高有机负荷OLR.用First-order、Monod and Contois、Grau second-order和Modified Stover–Kincannon动力学模型,考察在不同的HRT和进水浓度Si条件下,出水浓度Se与前两者的关系,确定动力学参数.实验结果表明:First-order和Monod and Contois模型不适用本实验,Grau second-order和Modified Stover–Kincannon模型适用,通过后两个模型公式分别比较实验值Se与计算值Se的差别,Grau second-order模型比Modified Stover–Kincannon模型更接近实验值.     

Wildfire smoke and health impacts: A closer look at fire attributes and their marginal effects

Existing studies on the economic impact of wildfire smoke have focused on single fire events or entire seasons without considering the marginal effect of daily fire progression on downwind communities. Neither approach allows for an examination of the impact of even the most basic fire attributes, such as distance and fuel type, on air quality and health outcomes. Improved knowledge of these effects can provide important guidance for efficient wildfire management strategies. This study aims to bridge this gap using detailed information on 24 large-scale wildfires that sent smoke plumes to the Reno/Sparks area of Northern Nevada over a 4-year period. We relate the daily acreage burned by these fires to daily data on air pollutants and local hospital admissions. Using information on medical expenses, we compute the per-acre health cost of wildfires of different attributes. We find that patient counts can be causally linked to fires as far as 200–300 miles from the impact area. As expected, the marginal impact per acre burned generally diminishes with distance and for fires with lighter fuel loads. Our results also highlight the importance of allowing for temporal lags between fire occurrence and pollutant levels.     

Sorption of cadmium(II) and copper(II) by soil humic acids: temperature effects and sorption heterogeneity

Sorption by humic acids is known to modify the bioavailability and toxicity of metals in soils and aquatic systems. The sorption of cadmium(II) and copper(II) to two soil humic acids was measured at pH 6.0 using ion-selective electrode potentiometric titration at different temperatures. Sorption reactions were studied with all components in aqueous solution, or with the humates in suspension. Adsorption reactions were described using a multiple site-binding model, and a model assuming a continuous log-normal distribution of adsorption constants. Adsorption of Cu²⁺ was more favourable than adsorption of Cd²⁺. The log-normal distribution model provided the closest fit to observations and allowed parameterisation of adsorption data using a mean adsorption constant (log K _μ). Sorption of Cd²⁺ to dissolved humic acids increased slightly in extent and sorption affinity with increasing temperature, but the effect was small (log K _μ 2.96–3.15). A slightly greater temperature effect occurred for sorption of Cd²⁺ to solid-phase humic acids (log K _μ 1.30–2.08). Sorption of copper(II) to both aqueous- and colloidal-phase humates showed more pronounced temperature dependence, with extent of sorption, and sorption affinity, increasing with increasing temperature (log K _μ 3.4–4.9 in solution and 1.4–4.5 in suspension). The weaker adsorption of Cd²⁺ than Cu²⁺, and smaller temperature effects for dissolved humates than suspended humates, suggested that the observed temperature effects had a kinetic, rather than thermodynamic, origin. For any metal-to-ligand ratio, free metal ion concentration, and by inference metal bioavailability, decreased with increasing temperature. The consistency of the data with kinetic rather than thermodynamic control of metal bioavailability suggests that equilibrium modelling approaches to estimating bioavailability may be insufficient.     

氯胺消毒管网“三氮”与总氯变化的预测模型

为探讨氯胺消毒供水管网的水质问题,建立了一种试验规模的氯胺消毒供水管网水质模拟系统。基于质量守恒原理和双Monod方程建立了该系统的硝化与氯胺衰减动力学耦合模型,并通过试验对该模型进行了验证。模型中的部分参数采用非线性多项式回归方法进行估计。应用该模型确定了活性氨氧化菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌(NOB)的数量。该模型对管网模拟系统内氨氮、硝酸盐氮与总氯的预测值与实测值基本一致,但对亚硝酸盐氮的预测值与实测值存在较大偏差。     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

火灾烟气毒性的定量评价方法评述

火灾烟气毒性定量评价是毒理学研究的一个新兴领域.烟气毒性与建筑材料、燃烧条件、烟气毒物在建筑物内的传播规律及暴露时间有关,这些都是传统毒理学评价方法难以解决的问题.烟气毒性定量评价的目的是通过建立数学模型,以最少的动物试验,从宏观上更加定量化、系统化地评价和预测火灾烟气毒性.本文介绍了国外火灾烟气毒性定量评价的标准、烟气定量评价的数学模型,评述了这些模型的适用范围和优缺点,分析了火灾烟气毒性定量评价的发展方向.